Surprising stat - Dak, Wentz, Foles - Career winning drive records

[EGTuna]

As the original tweeter (Football Outsiders' Scott Kascmar) has pointed out, Wentz and the Eagles' offense benefitted last year from historically good average starting field position, and unsustainable 3rd down success. Plus Pederson was a play-calling machine that has struggled some this year. Wentz is a terrific young QB, but he's not in the class of the elite. He may get there, but he's not there yet.

It's starting to look like Philly caught lightning in a bottle last year riding a great defense through the NFC playoffs, and then Nick Foles playing the Game of His Life vs. the Pats. How different is the SB is Belichick isn't stubborn and doesn't bench Butler? How different is the SB if Atlanta beats Philly in the divisional round where Atlanta outplayed them, but Philly got lucky with some bounces and bad ATL play-calling in the red zone.

 

[Dorsett33]

Cowboys QB Dak Prescott is 6-0 when rushing at least seven times.

I'm happy with giving Dak some more time to see how much he develops.

Agreed, but lets get the kid an experienced QB Coach

 

[Kevinicus]

?

It is also true when you have a running QB, not a pocket passer. We win when we take the bumpers off Dak and let him run. We lose when we try to turn him into a pocket passer.

It means, if Dak has 3 rushes in a game, and the team does well, and then he kneels 3 times at the end, it shows up as him getting 6 carries and a win.

If he has 5 actual rushes and they lose, and he doesn't kneel, it shows up as less than six carries and a loss.

So he actual ran more in the 2nd example than he did in the first, but because of the kneeling, the skews the numbers.

Winning leads to extra carries, not necessarily the other way around.

 

[Kevinicus]

It means, if Dak has 3 rushes in a game, and the team does well, and then he kneels 3 times at the end, it shows up as him getting 6 carries and a win.

If he has 5 actual rushes and they lose, and he doesn't kneel, it shows up as less than six carries and a loss.

So he actual ran more in the 2nd example than he did in the first, but because of the kneeling, the skews the numbers.

Winning leads to extra carries, not necessarily the other way around.

As an example - Brad Johnson was 2-0 with 6 or more rushing attempts in a game. He had negative yardage in both games and a total of -5.

Most QBs are going to have a higher than normal win % at 6 carries, because it means they are kneeling.

Winning -> kneeling -> inflated rush attempts -> flawed stat.

QBs who run a little more and get 3-4 carries regularly will break that threshold more often, but it doesn't mean them running (actually runs, not kneels) is leading to victory. When they do get 3 actual carries and then kneel 3 times when the team is winning then they get the 6 carries and win for the stat. When they get the same 3 actual carries and lose, then it doesn't qualify.

And with running QBs, you also have to remember that many of their rushes are not actually designed, but are pass plays they end up running on.

If anyone cares, Romo was 3-0.