Tampa's Extreme Defensive Splits Give Dallas Hope

28 Joker

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Tampa’s Extreme Defensive Splits Give Dallas Hope

Posted: October 22, 2008 @ 8:58 pm


I’ve argued that the Bucs have been the most consistent NFC team so far this year, going 4-0 against winners and avoiding a blowout loss, something every other NFC contender has endured.

Blog-regular David looks deeper into Tampa Bay’s extreme home/road splits and finds that opposing QB play much better against Monte Kiffin’s guys when they can play them at home:

So far in 2008, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are two different teams on the road, at least when it comes to their defense. Here’s how four opposing quarterbacks have done in the surroundings of hostile (“Nobody Loves”) Raymond James Stadium:

Matt Ryan: 33-13-158, 0 TDs, 2 Int., Tampa Bay won
Aaron Rodgers: 27-13-165, 2 TDs, 3 Int., Tampa Bay won
Jake Delhomme: 39-20-247, 0 TDs, 2 Int., Tampa Bay won
Seneca Wallace: 23-12-73, 1 TD, 1 Int., Tampa Bay won
Total: 121-58-643, 3 TDs, 8 Int.

When opposing QB’s visit Tampa, they are a combined 0-4, are completing 47% of their passes, have thrown 5 more interceptions than touchdowns, and are averaging a wretched 5.31 yards per attempt. They’ve also been sacked seven times in those four games.

Three of these visiting QB’s have hardly any starting experience (Ryan was in his second career start, Aaron Rodgers his 4th career start and Seneca Wallace in his 5th career start). Rodgers was injured midway through the Green Bay game and Wallace’s top receivers were out with injuries.

On the other hand, Delhomme is a grizzled veteran, but Tampa’s defense should be starting to figure him out by now, having played him eight times since 2003. And Steve Smith did drop at least one long TD pass against Tampa.

Tampa’s defense also has shut down decent runners in the comfy confines of home as well, including Atlanta’s Michael Turner, Green Bay’s Ryan Grant, Carolina’s tandem of DeAngelo Willams and Jonathan Stewart, and our old friend in Seattle, Julius Jones. In fact, in four home games their defense is allowing 69 rushing yards per game at 3.3 yards per clip.

Now let’s looks at the three “away” games on the Buccaneers schedule so far; specifically, how the “home” quarterbacks have performed against Monte
Kiffin’s defense:

Drew Brees: 32-23-343, 3 TDs, 1 Int., New Orleans won
Kyle Orton: 34-22-268, 2 TDs, 2 Int., Tampa Bay won
Jay Cutler: 34-23-227, 1 TD, 0 Int., Denver won
Total: 100-68-828, 6 TDs, 4 Int.

It’s a small sample so far, but the evidence bears out that Tampa’s defense – when playing “away” games - allows opposing QB’s to complete 68% of their passes, for 8.28 yards per attempt, and a couple more touchdowns than interceptions.

These opposing QB’s have been sacked four times in those three games.
Meanwhile, Tampa’s defense has allowed 123 yards per game (and 100+ in all three) and 4.0 yards per carry when playing in another team’s stadium. Per contest, Tampa’s defense is allowing 10 more carries for 54 more yards when playing away games.

No doubt a successful passing game feeds off a successful running attack, or vice versa. The fact is that the statistics show so far in 2008 that Tampa Bay’s defense is playing much better at home than away, against less experienced QB’s for the most part. Over the four home games, Tampa’s defense has allowed just under 220 total yards and just nine points (I’m not counting Green Bay’s interception return for a TD) per contest. During their three visiting match-ups, Tampa’s defense has allowed over 380 yards and 23 points per game. The stats don’t lie, nor are they even really just misleading – the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have thus far been playing much better in home games than away games.

Whether the Dallas Cowboys, playing at home and led by a grizzled veteran QB of their own (and who Tampa’s defense should have some background info on), can take advantage of this recent trend remains to be seen.

Written by Rafael Vela · Filed Under Games
Tagged: Dallas Cowboys, Tampa Bay Bucs
 

LeonDixson

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On the other hand, we seem to play worse at home than we do on the road so I'm not sure this analysis is relevant.
 

Idgit

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LeonDixson;2367708 said:
On the other hand, we seem to play worse at home than we do on the road so I'm not sure this analysis is relevant.

Did you *see* the Rams game?
 

TonyS

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I know Brad Johnson. Brad Johnson is no Drew Brees or Jay Cutler or even Kyle Orton for that matter. This is one of the first games we've played in a while where I felt we had absolutely no chance of winning. Johnson is done and the Boys should have realized that last year.
 
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