Tank Bigsby RB Auburn

[beware_d-ware]

I wasn’t going by round drafted, I was going down the rushing leaders list. And you can also add Josh Jacobs to the 4.5+ list. Dalvin cook just barely broke 4.5 with 4.49 (only 9% SPARQ percentile). Jamaal Williams 4.5+. Derrick Henry too (obviously a lot bigger).

I’m simply pointing out that there’s a lot of good RB’s that didn’t run a sub 4.5 40, it’s nowhere near the end all be all for a RB.

And I do think it’s tougher to talk about these picks ahead of time when you’re selecting all the way at the back of the round. Obviously it will depend on who’s left on the board in the 2nd, but a run on RB’s in the 3rd before we pick could leave us choosing from a completely different tier than we wanted to.
But yes, there is also definitely a scenario where we could feel comfortable in the 2nd that enough RB’s are left that we can get someone like Tank or equivalent in the 3rd.

Size-adjusted speed is the strongest correlation for RB success out there. It's not that strong at ~0.2, but it still tops every other metric.

In a league where average grinders can be found all day on Day 3 and signed cheap in free agency, I am not investing a round 2 pick in an athletically average RB.



vvv from maybe my favorite internet football article series ever
https://www.nbcsportsedge.com/article/numbers/nfl-draft-analytics-rb

 

[cnuball21]

Size-adjusted speed is the strongest correlation for RB success out there. It's not that strong at ~0.2, but it still tops every other metric.

In a league where average grinders can be found all day on Day 3 and signed cheap in free agency, I am not investing a round 2 pick in an athletically average RB.



vvv from maybe my favorite internet football article series ever
https://www.nbcsportsedge.com/article/numbers/nfl-draft-analytics-rb

Yea, for me the bar is usually 210/215+ pounds and sub 4.5 40 with some college production.

 

[tm1119]

Yea, for me the bar is usually 210/215+ pounds and sub 4.5 40 with some college production.

But didn’t I just prove that at least 1/2 of the top 20 RB’s wouldn’t qualify under your requirements? Only Derek Henry is really significantly bigger and should be classified differently. Pretty much all the guys I pointed out that ran a 4.5+ are between 210-220

 

[cnuball21]

But didn’t I just prove that at least 1/2 of the top 20 RB’s wouldn’t qualify under your requirements? Only Derek Henry is really significantly bigger and should be classified differently. Pretty much all the guys I pointed out that ran a 4.5+ are between 210-220

Maybe In thinking of speed score which factors in size. Surprised to see about 50% over 4.5…

If someone does run a 4.5+ though I’m ideally hoping it’s someone a little bigger or scores very well in short area quickness drills.

 

[beware_d-ware]

But didn’t I just prove that at least 1/2 of the top 20 RB’s wouldn’t qualify under your requirements? Only Derek Henry is really significantly bigger and should be classified differently. Pretty much all the guys I pointed out that ran a 4.5+ are between 210-220

So Speed Score is a more mathematical of adjusting weight for speed. The formula is (200 * weight) / (40 time ^4).

It's scaled so that 100 works out to around average. 110 is the stud zone, 90 is the danger zone.

I'd like to thank PlayerProfiler.com for saving me a lot of arithmetic. Anyway, here are the speed scores for the guys you listed.

Nick Chubb: 109
Dameon Pierce: 101
Tyler Allegier: 99
David Montgomery: 96
Rhamondrae Stevenson: 96
Aaron Jones: 96
Javontae: 93
Josh Jacobs: 91

Javontae and Jacobs are your outlier low size-speed athletes, and Chubb's a really good size-speed athlete. Everyone else is about average once you adjust for weight.

Now again, what I mentioned about the stud zone. Most of your NFL beasts are up around a 110, and almost no one is under 100.

Saquon: 124
Jonathan Taylor: 121
Derrick Henry: 116
Rookie Zeke: 112
Chubb: 109
Dalvin Cook: 103
Christian McCaffrey: 100 (with 98th percentile agility).


So what this means for Bigsby.... his roster weight is 213. Given the Speed Score formula, he needs to run a 4.54 to score 100, which is sort of the Pierce zone. A 4.43 would put him in the 110 stud zone. A 4.66 would be the 90 stay-away zone.

 

[Hardline]

Zach Charbonnet is my 2nd round target.
Think DeMarco Murray in his prime.
Speed and power.

That being said. I still take Bijan Robinson in the first if he falls to us.

 

[tm1119]

So Speed Score is a more mathematical of adjusting weight for speed. The formula is (200 * weight) / (40 time ^4).

It's scaled so that 100 works out to around average. 110 is the stud zone, 90 is the danger zone.

I'd like to thank PlayerProfiler.com for saving me a lot of arithmetic. Anyway, here are the speed scores for the guys you listed.

Nick Chubb: 109
Dameon Pierce: 101
Tyler Allegier: 99
David Montgomery: 96
Rhamondrae Stevenson: 96
Aaron Jones: 96
Javontae: 93
Josh Jacobs: 91

Javontae and Jacobs are your outlier low size-speed athletes, and Chubb's a really good size-speed athlete. Everyone else is about average once you adjust for weight.

Now again, what I mentioned about the stud zone. Most of your NFL beasts are up around a 110, and almost no one is under 100.

Saquon: 124
Jonathan Taylor: 121
Derrick Henry: 116
Rookie Zeke: 112
Chubb: 109
Dalvin Cook: 103
Christian McCaffrey: 100 (with 98th percentile agility).


So what this means for Bigsby.... his roster weight is 213. Given the Speed Score formula, he needs to run a 4.54 to score 100, which is sort of the Pierce zone. A 4.43 would put him in the 110 stud zone. A 4.66 would be the 90 stay-away zone.

Good post. And for the record, I’m not trying to argue that big and fast isn’t usually better. Just trying to say that elite speed isn’t the end all be all. I mean that list of guys in the 90’s doesn’t look so bad to me out of late 2nd round pick. I think it’s easy to point out the success stories of 3rd round or later RB’s…but no one ever points out all the ones that fail. You definitely have to pick the right guy for the right spot. Saying “we can wait and get an impact RB in the 3rd” is a lot easier said than done.

Would also like to point out that everyone that scored above 100 was a 1st round pick other than Chubb (35th). When we are talking about a late 2nd round pick I think it’s a little different of how elite of an athlete you’re going to get.

But I do think 4.54 is very realistic for Tank and curious where a 100 would score amongst RB’s not named Robinson and Gibbs.(not expecting you to be able to do it lol). Maybe you’re right and there are guys that will test out better…there’s definitely plenty of guys with production. I’m definitely not standing on the table saying we have to draft Tank or anything.

 

[cnuball21]

Good post. And for the record, I’m not trying to argue that big and fast isn’t usually better. Just trying to say that elite speed isn’t the end all be all. I mean that list of guys in the 90’s doesn’t look so bad to me out of late 2nd round pick. I think it’s easy to point out the success stories of 3rd round or later RB’s…but no one ever points out all the ones that fail. You definitely have to pick the right guy for the right spot. Saying “we can wait and get an impact RB in the 3rd” is a lot easier said than done.

Would also like to point out that everyone that scored above 100 was a 1st round pick other than Chubb (35th). When we are talking about a late 2nd round pick I think it’s a little different of how elite of an athlete you’re going to get.

But I do think 4.54 is very realistic for Tank and curious where a 100 would score amongst RB’s not named Robinson and Gibbs.(not expecting you to be able to do it lol). Maybe you’re right and there are guys that will test out better…there’s definitely plenty of guys with production. I’m definitely not standing on the table saying we have to draft Tank or anything.

If we let our RBs walk to save money I wouldn’t be mad at all if we double dipped at RB. Maybe like rounds 3 and 5 ish.

Maybe sign Damien Harris on a short deal and if you hit on one the 2 RBs I think you still have a top 10 unit.

 

[visionary]

If we let our RBs walk to save money I wouldn’t be mad at all if we double dipped at RB. Maybe like rounds 3 and 5 ish.

Maybe sign Damien Harris on a short deal and if you hit on one the 2 RBs I think you still have a top 10 unit.

That’s my thinking
Let both walk

 

[beware_d-ware]

Good post. And for the record, I’m not trying to argue that big and fast isn’t usually better. Just trying to say that elite speed isn’t the end all be all. I mean that list of guys in the 90’s doesn’t look so bad to me out of late 2nd round pick. I think it’s easy to point out the success stories of 3rd round or later RB’s…but no one ever points out all the ones that fail. You definitely have to pick the right guy for the right spot. Saying “we can wait and get an impact RB in the 3rd” is a lot easier said than done.

Would also like to point out that everyone that scored above 100 was a 1st round pick other than Chubb (35th). When we are talking about a late 2nd round pick I think it’s a little different of how elite of an athlete you’re going to get.

But I do think 4.54 is very realistic for Tank and curious where a 100 would score amongst RB’s not named Robinson and Gibbs.(not expecting you to be able to do it lol). Maybe you’re right and there are guys that will test out better…there’s definitely plenty of guys with production. I’m definitely not standing on the table saying we have to draft Tank or anything.

Taylor, Henry, and Cook were all picked in the 40s. In the last draft, Breece Hall and Ken Walker both had a 115+ speed score and went early 2nd.

So that early second range is where I'd start shopping for uber-athlete RBs with Pro Bowl, rushing title upside. For guys without that juice, 3rd is the earliest I will go. It's just too easy to get a similar guy on Day 3.

 

[Rayman70]

I like him.

 

[Rayman70]

Deuce Vaughn,Tank, Roshon Robinson from Texas are my rb targets. Great value with them in the mid rds.I want a cb/LB/rb or WR at 26 and 58. Some combination of it. Drew Sanders at 26?

 

[JIMMYBUFFETT]

Deuce Vaughn,Tank, Roshon Robinson from Texas are my rb targets. Great value with them in the mid rds.I want a cb/LB/rb or WR at 26 and 58. Some combination of it. Drew Sanders at 26?

Deuce Vaughn's father Chris is a scout for Dallas. My guess is he'll have nice things to say about his son.