Team Needs: Free Agents versus Draft Picks

[Kaiser]

Great thread nearby on team needs, I think it would be interesting to predict the offseason based on the team needs. Typically our lower tier FA signings (i.e. Durant) plug some holes while a good number of our draft picks (like Wilcox and Randle last year) fill needs where depth is needed. Some are BPA for the long run (Sean Lee) and some are BPA for areas of critical need (Frederick).

So what holes should be filled by FA and by draft picks? I see the areas of need as these:

Offense: OG, Deep threat WR, Backup QB and an OT to develop.

Defense: DT, DE, WLB and CB

Targets of Opportunity if the BPA is available at there draft spot would be FS, LB, and RB.


My assumptions built into that are the typical contract restructures to create cap space, Miles Austin is cut, Ware takes a slight pay cut and Spencer comes back on a one year, incentive based contract. So my take on how the needs are filled is this:

Offense

Guard taken in the first three rounds of the draft.

WR with deep speed signed as a 3rd or 4th option in free agency.

Backup QB taken in the middle rounds of the draft.

Developmental OT taken in the late rounds.


Defense


DT taken in the first two rounds and an impact Henry Melton type of FA DT is the team’s biggest FA signing.


DE taken in the first three rounds with a situational pass rusher taken in later rounds.


WLB taken in the middle rounds


CB with size taken in the middle and in the late rounds.

 

[Beast_from_East]

Almost all of our player acquisitions will have to be from the draft considering we have little to no cap room for any free agents (unless you go the bargain route with guys coming off injuries/arrests).

 

[Nightman]

Almost all of our player acquisitions will have to be from the draft considering we have little to no cap room for any free agents (unless you go the bargain route with guys coming off injuries/arrests).

That's just not true. They can easily get 10-15m under the cap with restructures and a couple of releases.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

I can pretty much guarantee you they are going to sign a DT possibly two. We don't have starters. I don't care what Broaddus heard, Crawford is not a solution at the 1. A guy like Linval Joseph would make me feel better.

 

[Nightman]

With 11-12 draft picks, Free Agency and UDFAs they will bring in close to 20 guys. Most of those needs can be filled with good scouting. They should spend big resources on DT/DE, FS, OLB and OG/C.

 

[Neverhood]

As long as we draft Calvin Pryor in round 1 we will be good to go

 

[Picksix]

Almost all of our player acquisitions will have to be from the draft considering we have little to no cap room for any free agents (unless you go the bargain route with guys coming off injuries/arrests).

We were in much the same situation last year, and found money to sign Durant and Allen. We won't be able to the Michael Bennett's, but most of the big name, big FA's don't live up to their new contracts anyway.

 

[Picksix]

My assumptions built into that are the typical contract restructures to create cap space, Miles Austin is cut, Ware takes a slight pay cut and Spencer comes back on a one year, incentive based contract.

I agree with pretty much everything, except for this about Spencer. Everything I hear to this point is that his knee is still an issue, and there's concern it may never be right. If so, I wouldn't sign him at all, even at a low price.

As for the draft, I like the areas you target. I'm not sure you necessarily need to follow a plan where you're taking a certain position in a certain area of the draft, unless it's QB. Sure, theoretically, a G taken in the 2nd would be better than one in the 6th, but we get in trouble when if we end up reaching for a guy just to fill a spot. If it's someone like Fredrick, where need meets where you have a guy on the board, then fine. But if we're in the 3rd round, and we haven't taken a G, and don't have one at or near the top of the board, and can't make a good enough trade, then I would hope we would stick with the board and not take someone just because of position.

 

[AbeBeta]

I like a G/T combo in the first three rounds. But if that doesn't materialize we might go back to Waters for a year, use Bern as our C-G backup and cut Costa (whose salary is 1.5 mill for 2014)

 

[Kaiser]

I agree with pretty much everything, except for this about Spencer. Everything I hear to this point is that his knee is still an issue, and there's concern it may never be right. If so, I wouldn't sign him at all, even at a low price.

Signing him obviously depends on him checking out with the trainers, I list that because I think Dallas is the best place for Spencer to rebuild his value on a 1 year deal because he knows the scheme, his teammates, has a comfort zone, etc. Dallas definitely needs DEs and will draft at least one, but if his health checks out I do think there is a good chance of him returning.

 

[Kaiser]

As for the draft, I like the areas you target. I'm not sure you necessarily need to follow a plan where you're taking a certain position in a certain area of the draft, unless it's QB. Sure, theoretically, a G taken in the 2nd would be better than one in the 6th, but we get in trouble when if we end up reaching for a guy just to fill a spot.

Agree, but when I say they target mid round or late round, I think they look at a group of players in a certain range rather than targeting one specific guy at one draft spot.

For example, last year the Cowboys had a big need for a RB to backup Murray after the running game disappeared in 2013 when Murray was hurt. If you look at the way the draft played out there was a group of RBs that went in the 2nd Round (Lacy, Bernard, Bell, Michael, Ball), one more in the 3rd and then a bunch that went in the 4th and 5th (Lattimore, Taylor, Randle, etc). Going into the draft it would make sense to wait until the middle rounds to see which of the second tier RB's drops to your pick rather than spending a 1st or 2nd on the top group. Randle ended up being the pick but Dallas probably would have been fine with Taylor if he dropped to the 5th round rather than Randle.

 

[Kaiser]

I like a G/T combo in the first three rounds. But if that doesn't materialize we might go back to Waters for a year, use Bern as our C-G backup and cut Costa (whose salary is 1.5 mill for 2014)

They could do both, draft the OG to develop for the future and then sign Waters right before the season so he gets his wish in avoiding the preseason. Miles Austin is a lock to be cut June 1st (if he doesn't restructure down) and that 5 Million would pay for the draft class and leave 3 million left over. Waters would fit perfectly with the amount of cap space freeing up late in off season.

 

[Kristen82]

Isn't it smart to draft for positions that are expensive and sign FA's at positions that are cheap?

http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-nfls-highest-paid-positions-2013-10

So what holes should be filled by FA and by draft picks? I see the areas of need as these:

WR with deep speed signed as a 3rd or 4th option in free agency.

I read that we were talking to Robert Meacham. Danario Alexander is out there too as is Jacoby Jones. They're all not just fast but have good size too. They all should come el cheapo.

 

[ShiningStar]

This is where the scouting department has to make its name. Either bring in the people we need...or collect a paycheck and draft off others mocks..because if you cant make a significant difference in this draft....you just cant prove to people you can do your job

 

[Kaiser]

Isn't it smart to draft for positions that are expensive and sign FA's at positions that are cheap?

No argument there, unless its a critical hole like CB was when we signed Carr. I think they could sign a DT and WR at amounts that would fit within our cap position.

On WR, a veteran who can stretch the field is a need. I'd be fine with Meachem, there is also an article on ESPN today saying Nate Burleson could be a fit because of the connection with Linehan.

 

[Future]

Isn't it smart to draft for positions that are expensive and sign FA's at positions that are cheap?

http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-nfls-highest-paid-positions-2013-10

I read that we were talking to Robert Meacham. Danario Alexander is out there too as is Jacoby Jones. They're all not just fast but have good size too. They all should come el cheapo.

Yes and no.

If you feel you can get a better guy in FA than you can in the draft, you have to make a play for him. In a perfect world that would always be the approach, but its not necessarily practical. That approach would essentially mean losing a guy like Tyron, who is going to get paid like a freaking boss, and hoping to draft a guy to replace him.

 

[Fredd]

Yes and no.

If you feel you can get a better guy in FA than you can in the draft, you have to make a play for him. In a perfect world that would always be the approach, but its not necessarily practical. That approach would essentially mean losing a guy like Tyron, who is going to get paid like a freaking boss, and hoping to draft a guy to replace him.

I took it as when you are retooling a team, you save yourself some money by drafting the high profile positions early and fill holes in FA with the other positions; those won't be as expensive...but, the guys that are premium players are going to get paid, and a tyron is a guy that makes you better so while he was drafted with a high pick and the chart says he is a middle of the road position, I believe that the OT's really are a premium position...as soon as you have a good one, they are a premium position, that's for sure

interesting concept

 

[Redball Express]

Almost all of our player acquisitions will have to be from the draft considering we have little to no cap room for any free agents (unless you go the bargain route with guys coming off injuries/arrests).

I read a thread here recently that said we were possibly going to get 3 extra picks as Supplemental in the 7th Rd.

Is that confirmed..true?

If so..we need every body we can get in this draft.

There could be like 15 new players this year I think.

We need to get younger and need to lose the loser mentality starting to set in in Dallas.

Young bucks with upside and motors for 4 QTS. is what is needed.

 

[Tabascocat]

I read a thread here recently that said we were possibly going to get 3 extra picks as Supplemental in the 7th Rd.

Is that confirmed..true?

If so..we need every body we can get in this draft.

There could be like 15 new players this year I think.

We need to get younger and need to lose the loser mentality starting to set in in Dallas.

Young bucks with upside and motors for 4 QTS. is what is needed.

Problem is.....multiple and I mean multiple, 7th round draft picks will be like depending on patio screen doors blocking the wind and rain. We would be lucky if even one of those players snuck onto the team with maybe 1 or 2 more on the PS.

I am sure other teams won't give up much for extra 7th rd picks, it is a crap-shoot. IMO, 1 pick in the 7th is almost as good as 10 picks there. They can load up but it won't do much good with the way our team is currently structured.

I would trade all of our 7th rd picks for just one 4th, maybe even a 5th, round pick, the chances are greater.

I do agree that this team needs to cut dead weight but FA will be needed to some extent.

 

[Redball Express]

Problem is.....multiple and I mean multiple, 7th round draft picks will be like depending on patio screen doors blocking the wind and rain. We would be lucky if even one of those players snuck onto the team with maybe 1 or 2 more on the PS.

I am sure other teams won't give up much for extra 7th rd picks, it is a crap-shoot. IMO, 1 pick in the 7th is almost as good as 10 picks there. They can load up but it won't do much good with the way our team is currently structured.


I would trade all of our 7th rd picks for just one 4th, maybe even a 5th, round pick, the chances are greater.

I do agree that this team needs to cut dead weight but FA will be needed to some extent.

It is difficult..

..but you know what?

This team has no choice.

This is definitely Garrett's last year if the team doesn't come thru and play like crazed Indians.

I personally don't think they will becuz they haven't for Parcells nor Phillips nor Carrot Top now.

So to me all bets are off and I find it very difficult to believe that we will not be interviewing for HC at this time next year at the Scouting Combine.

We'll see.