Teams should gladly give up first-round picks for proven wideouts

[JonCJG]

PFT

Posted by Mike Florio on March 5, 2010 11:31 PM ET

Peter Warrick. Travis Taylor. Sylvester Morris. R. Jay Soward.

David Terrell. Koren Robinson. Rod Gardner. Freddie Mitchell.

Donte' Stallworth. Ashley Lelie. Javon Walker.

Charles Rogers. Bryant Johnson.

Reggie Williams. Michael Clayton. Michael Jenkins. Rashaun Woods.

Troy Williamson. Mike Williams. Matt Jones.

Ted Ginn. Dwayne Bowe. Robert Meachem. Craig Davis.

Darrius Heyward-Bey.

The names become a blur of mediocrity and unfulfilled potential. Each are receivers who were first-round picks in the past 10 drafts. None ever performed like Brandon Marshall, Miles Austin, and Vincent Jackson.

We mention those three because any one of these restricted free agents can be had via a first-round pick (and, for Austin and Jackson, a third-round pick, too). The same first-round picks that over the past decade have become players like Charles Rogers, Mike Williams, and Reggie Williams.

So why not view Marshall, Austin, or Jackson as a player who was obtained via a first-round pick? That's what the Vikings did two years ago when acquiring defensive end Jared Allen from the Chiefs, and the Vikings presumably have no regrets.

It's therefore no surprise that the Seahawks are bringing in Marshall on Saturday, and we wonder how long it will be before Austin and Jackson are courted by other teams that need pass-catches.

The logic applies to all positions. Why take a chance on a rookie who might never become anything other than a guy who once was a great college football player? If the goal is to use the draft pick to get a good player, it makes more sense to use the draft pick on a player that we already know will be good.

The argument gets stronger for teams picking lower in a given round. If Colts president Bill Polian thinks his offensive line needs an upgrade, he should present an offer sheet to Chargers left tackle Marcus McNeill. Polian would get a quality linemen in exchange for the 31st and 93rd picks in the annual NFL crapshoot.

Throw in the poison pill, which if done properly makes it impossible (or, more accurately, ridiculously expensive in terms of guaranteed money) for the current team to match the deal.

Before citing the reality that this year's crop of rookies is deeper and more talented than in past seasons, there still will be plenty of busts. And no one knows who'll they'll be.

Given that reality, the safest move is to use those picks on guys who have already shown that they are capable of making the transition to the highest level of the game.

Especially in an offseason with a depleted crop of unrestricted free agents.

 

[theebs]

god that guy is a moron.

 

[jobberone]

He has a point. OTOH, those contracts are a lot more expensive than the majority of rookie contracts so there is a down side. They are also older with less service life left.

 

[superonyx]

I do agree that draft picks are overrated. But financially i can see why teams may pass on the idea of signing one of these guys. It is much cheaper to draft a guy with a 20ish pick in the first round than Marshall, Jackson or Austin. Much Much cheaper.

However, as far as finding the all stars in the draft it is a crap shoot. It seems like the odds are stacked against finding a superstar. Its more miss than hit.

But dont expect to get many people on this message board to agree with you. Most football fans that post on a message board this time of the year are draft nerds. They hate when we dont have tons of draft picks.

 

[ZeroClub]

This just in - sometimes 1st round draft choices don't pan out.

 

[sureletsrace]

This just in - sometimes 1st round draft choices don't pan out.

:laugh2:

 

[JBell]

I do agree that draft picks are overrated. But financially i can see why teams may pass on the idea of signing one of these guys. It is much cheaper to draft a guy with a 20ish pick in the first round than Marshall, Jackson or Austin. Much Much cheaper.

However, as far as finding the all stars in the draft it is a crap shoot. It seems like the odds are stacked against finding a superstar. Its more miss than hit.

But dont expect to get many people on this message board to agree with you. Most football fans that post on a message board this time of the year are draft nerds. They hate when we dont have tons of draft picks.

That's the whole point.

If you could get these proven WR's or any position for that matter for the same contract as a late first rounder, then hell yeah you do it.

But you're going to be giving them contracts in the 40-50 million $ range.

You can't use the logic of "well so-so is already proven, only 25, yada yada etc.. so why not just trade for him instead of crossing your fingers with some rookie" without mentioning that he will be making 4-5 times as much as your rookie would be.

 

[Randy White]

god that guy is a moron.

:signmast:


what he said..!!

 

[Randy White]

There is NO such thing as a " sure method ". Period, end of story.

There are times when trading for the right player at the right price ( whatever that price is ) is the proper thing to do and there are times when keeping the draft picks is the proper thing to do.

It's the same thing with the draft. Use the ol' Kenny Roger song Gambler: Know when to hold, know when to fold, know when to walk away.

THE only excuse I'm willing to accept is that the NFL has change and the " win now " attitude that the NFL owners demand ( in order to justify their outrageous charges to the public, not only in tickets, but higher tv revenues and the building of new ball parks ) makes it very tough for coaches to invest time and effort in developing rookies, who, most of the time, need time to develop.

Also, if by some chance, the rookies develop into something special, this coaches might not be the ones who'd benefit from it.

WE are a perfect example. If it was up to most of us at this time last year ( and I include myself ), Wade Philips would have been gone and somebody else would have been rewarded for Miles Austins, Mike Jenkins and Anthony Spencer's breakout years.

But even so, you still can't say " this way " is the best and only way to go. One size does not fit all..

 

[Beast_from_East]

god that guy is a moron.

That guy probably plays Madden all night in his parent's basement, seriously. Yea, lets just trade all of our picks away.


I guess this guy has never heard of building through the draft, he really should look it up.

 

[THUMPER]

One name: Joey Galloway. :bang2: :bang2: :bang2:

/thread

 

[THUMPER]

That guy probably plays Madden all night in his parent's basement, seriously. Yea, lets just trade all of our picks away.


I guess this guy has never heard of building through the draft, he really should look it up.

Hey, you just described Danny Snyder.

 

[sonnyboy]

One name: Joey Galloway. :bang2: :bang2: :bang2:

/thread

Second name: Roy Williams


You know what sucks? Giving a 35-45mil dollar deal with enough guaranteed money to almost marry you to it for 3 years, to a bust veteran UFA.

Something else that sucks.........Spending valuable draft resources, say a 1st and 3rd on a couple of rookies who are out of the NFL in two years.

Now lets go and combine the two.

 

[sonnyboy]

But I don't believe in rules when it comes to building a team/filling a roster.

Draft, FA, Trades, FA signings that cost picks. Use them all wisely and you win.

And that's the key or the one rule I do believe in and that's talent evaluation.

As long as you properly evaluated the player. He plays to the price you paid or above it, you win.


These restricted FA that come with a draft pick price tag really need to fill a BIG hole in your roster.

 

[Cowboys2008]

Yea wait for someone to grab up Austin on us and we'll be right there included in those teams that had wished they'd considered someone like Marshall or Jackson just a little harder.

We are really screwed if that happens.

That's why I say unless an immediate deal for Austin is in the works to insure his services longterm we need to make a move for someone like Marshall before we find ourselves sitting with nothing.

The clock is ticking..

 

[JonCJG]

Second name: Roy Williams


You know what sucks? Giving a 35-45mil dollar deal with enough guaranteed money to almost marry you to it for 3 years, to a bust veteran UFA.

Something else that sucks.........Spending valuable draft resources, say a 1st and 3rd on a couple of rookies who are out of the NFL in two years.

Now lets go and combine the two.

Thanks for ruining my morning. When you put it like that it makes me sick.

 

[JBell]

If you do your homework, trading picks for proven players CAN be a great move.

It just shouldn't be a consistent method for any NFL team like Florio is suggesting.

Although you have your Galloway's and Roy Williams', history shows that you can get some steals for draft picks as well.

Minnesota made out pretty well giving their first, 2 third's, and a sixth for Jared Allen. The Chiefs turned the draft picks they got from Minnesota into OT Brandon Albert, RB Jamaal Charles(stud), S Dajuan Morgan, and WR Kevin Robinson so I wouldn't say they lost too bad.

The Rams traded a 2nd and 4th rounder to the Colts for Marshall Faulk and they went on to win a super bowl in large part due to Faulk (I know I know, thanks to Kurt the grocery bag man too). The Colts turned those picks into Mike Peterson, a good LB who's had solid lengthy career, and Brad Scioli. Advantage: Rams.

The Steelers traded a 2nd and 4th to the Rams for Jerome Bettis and a 3rd. The Rams turned the 2nd into TE Ernie Conwell and turned the 4th rounder into C Ryan Tucker. I'd say the Steelers made out pretty well in that trade.

 

[dbair1967]

If you do your homework, trading picks for proven players CAN be a great move.

It just shouldn't be a consistent method for any NFL team like Florio is suggesting.

Although you have your Galloway's and Roy Williams', history shows that you can get some steals for draft picks as well.

Minnesota made out pretty well giving their first, 2 third's, and a sixth for Jared Allen. The Chiefs turned the draft picks they got from Minnesota into OT Brandon Albert, RB Jamaal Charles(stud), S Dajuan Morgan, and WR Kevin Robinson so I wouldn't say they lost too bad.

The Rams traded a 2nd and 4th rounder to the Colts for Marshall Faulk and they went on to win a super bowl in large part due to Faulk (I know I know, thanks to Kurt the grocery bag man too). The Colts turned those picks into Mike Peterson, a good LB who's had solid lengthy career, and Brad Scioli. Advantage: Rams.

The Steelers traded a 2nd and 4th to the Rams for Jerome Bettis and a 3rd. The Rams turned the 2nd into TE Ernie Conwell and turned the 4th rounder into C Ryan Tucker. I'd say the Steelers made out pretty well in that trade.

It pays off some, Jimmy was a prime example when he was here, although we had a ton of picks to trade (and likewise, the Herschel trade is an example of why trading picks for players is bad in Minnesota's case). Just off the top of my head, we got Tony Casillas, Thomas Everett and Charles Haley in pick for player deals.

 

[superonyx]

Yea wait for someone to grab up Austin on us and we'll be right there included in those teams that had wished they'd considered someone like Marshall or Jackson just a little harder.

We are really screwed if that happens.

That's why I say unless an immediate deal for Austin is in the works to insure his services longterm we need to make a move for someone like Marshall before we find ourselves sitting with nothing.

The clock is ticking..

It is a gamble no matter what we decide to do. Paying Miles big money is a gamble. I dont think he will turn out to be an average receiver. But we have only seen him play for 1 partial season. Unfortunately for us his contract expired at a bad time. Sort of like Marion Barbers. They both needed deals after only getting to prove themselves for a short amount of time.

I dont think we really need to go after Marshall. But if we decided not to then we need to be fully prepared to lock up Austin and hope he wasnt a one year wonder.

Also with receivers it is chemistry with the quarterback as well as the right offense system for them. I think Roy Williams would be a more productive receiver in a different offense. He is a guy who isnt good at stopping and starting. He needs to be used on more slants and crossing patterns where his size and straight line speed can be used. He didnt put up decent numbers his whole life until he came here because he sucks. Our offense just isnt designed for his skill set.

 

[alancdc]

He has a point. OTOH, those contracts are a lot more expensive than the majority of rookie contracts so there is a down side. They are also older with less service life left.

WR may be the most difficult position to figure out in the draft. I would gladly give up a 1st for a PROVEN WR as opposed to drafting one in the 1st round. Just so happens the one we did that for may be the worst one possible.