The 1:52 3rd down decision (re: The Break conversation)

[_sturt_]

I was calling the play call stupid

Yes. You were.

And that's why I said what I said.

We agree it makes no sense to read that post any other way. We disagree who is having difficulty reading at an adequate comprehension level, accordingly. But that's okay.

 

[_sturt_]

I could not disagree with you more.

Disagree that... the decision was reasonable... or... disagree that... it is not all that difficult to get in the head coach's head and understand his line of thought?

Not that it matters, necessarily, but just that almost everyone here seems to be arguing the first part, when it's the second part that is the pivot point of the OP.

 

[BrassCowboy]

you can’t be part of this conversation if you think “the fade”’was The call. Sure a pass play was the call, Dak chose who to throw it to.

well to be fair, Mannix didn't "say" the fade was the call, he said it "amounted" to a fade pass

 

[silvernblu]

Disagree that... the decision was reasonable... or... disagree that... it is not all that difficult to get in the head coach's head and understand his line of thought?

Not that it matters, necessarily, but just that almost everyone here seems to be arguing the first part, when it's the second part that is the pivot point of the OP.

Bad decision. Gotta take the seconds there.Especially after what happened in the first half and the refs PI fetish. . I dispute your claim the analytics said it was close.

 

[_sturt_]

Bad decision.

Thanks for the clarification.

But again again. Everyone is to be granted the license to talk about that, as long as they acknowledge the actual thrust of the OP is not that. We should be able to agree it's not hard to figure out what the head coach was thinking.

I dispute your claim the analytics said it was close.

Bad take.

Wasn't my claim. Was some other person's claim (... obviously a person that I had some regard for, but forgive me, I really did listen/read a lot in the last 36-ish hours since the end of that game).

And/but, too, I don't even rest my assertion on that part, even if you want to call me a liar. McCarthy, indeed, has routinely reserved the right to justify his decisions as going with his gut based on all the variety of factoids at a given point in a given game.

 

[kskboys]

Was a little surprised that there was agreement by everyone around the table on what they'd have rather seen McCarthy choose to do...



... because I think McCarthy had two very justifiable objectives.

Yes, defending a head coach I am... dangerous as that can be.

First, he was determined to get points. The almost last thing he wanted was to leave any chance that SEA could tie the game on a FG. So, once you make that decision, you've effectively established, then, you're definitely going for the FG on 4th down, no matter what happens on 3rd (ie, short of a first down or a TD).

Second, yes, you could run the ball on 3rd down to try to get the 1st. Or, you could take a shot at the end zone and pretty much win the game then and there.

I have zero problems with taking a shot at winning the game. Didn't work out, but the decision itself was stout.

Broaddus and Eagleton both passionately advocated for running the ball on both downs, and worst-case, turning the ball over on downs but having ran the clock to something in the neighborhood of 60 seconds left. Walker, not as passionate, but agreed.

Good heavens no.

That's still too much time, and especially when one of their weapons has burned you all night long with his speed... they could get to FG position very easily in that situation.

But what's crazy to me is they talk like it was/is so difficult for them to figure out McCarthy's thinking. Disagree, that's fine. But this wasn't rocket science. Even if it turned out to be a bad decision... and it didn't, of course... it was not hard to decipher the line of reason.

Absolutely not true. It was a terrible decision. Just because we won anyway absolutely does not make it a good decision.

Here's what you are missing:

1. Clock mgmt. An extra 40 seconds is huge.
2. Play selection. The play we ran is a low percentage play. 15% of success is what they said. And then add in that the pass was thrown to a player where the DB had positioning on him, and in a big way. Basically, the ball was uncatchable by the WR. The ball could've only been caught by the DB. Terrible play call, terrible execution, just pure stupidity.

I do agree that if you run the ball or throw a shorter pass and don't get the 1st, that you must take the FG. There's a monster of a difference between a 3 point lead and a 6 point lead.

 

[kskboys]

By throwing that low % pass, they essentially gifted the Seahawks with a timeout and an extra 40 seconds on the clock. That could have been a critical mistake and probably would have been if Parsons hadn't disrupted that last 4th down play. There was still 1:07 left after that.

Yup. We had our foot on their neck, and chose to remove it on a low percentage pass play. It made zero sense at the time and makes even less in hindsight.

I'm in shock that anyone is even attempting to defend this horrific decision.

 

[blueblood70]

Was a little surprised that there was agreement by everyone around the table on what they'd have rather seen McCarthy choose to do...



... because I think McCarthy had two very justifiable objectives.

Yes, defending a head coach I am... dangerous as that can be.

First, he was determined to get points. The almost last thing he wanted was to leave any chance that SEA could tie the game on a FG. So, once you make that decision, you've effectively established, then, you're definitely going for the FG on 4th down, no matter what happens on 3rd (ie, short of a first down or a TD).

Second, yes, you could run the ball on 3rd down to try to get the 1st. Or, you could take a shot at the end zone and pretty much win the game then and there.

I have zero problems with taking a shot at winning the game. Didn't work out, but the decision itself was stout.

Broaddus and Eagleton both passionately advocated for running the ball on both downs, and worst-case, turning the ball over on downs but having ran the clock to something in the neighborhood of 60 seconds left. Walker, not as passionate, but agreed.

Good heavens no.

That's still too much time, and especially when one of their weapons has burned you all night long with his speed... they could get to FG position very easily in that situation.

But what's crazy to me is they talk like it was/is so difficult for them to figure out McCarthy's thinking. Disagree, that's fine. But this wasn't rocket science. Even if it turned out to be a bad decision... and it didn't, of course... it was not hard to decipher the line of reason.

i'm with you i'm defending mike McCarthy because i know what he was thinking, already been over talked about IMHO...we won the game time to move on.. want to criticize a group and coach Dan Quinn needs to get the Nolan and Marinelli treatment here. its getting that bad..

Boom or bust opportunistic d but not even close to what we excepted. our O is humming, our D is cracked..Bend don't break um cracked and breaking far too many long TOP eating drives and too many points against teams we lost too.

 

[conner01]

That was a braindead fireable call....ESPECIALLY since it amounted to a long "fade route"....the lowest % pass route EVER known to man.

I would have ran the ball but I get the thought of going for the kill. Too me that wasn’t the worst decision or even second worst decision he made. Declining to penalty and taking 3rd and 9 over 3rd and 19 to me was much worse. Going on 4th earlier in FG range where the FG gave you the lead was worse.
But like most coaches decisions if they work they are praised, when they don’t they are attacked. I thought all 3 were bad decisions but the pass to win at the end was the least dumb of the 3 to me

 

[kskboys]

I would have ran the ball but I get the thought of going for the kill. Too me that wasn’t the worst decision or even second worst decision he made. Declining to penalty and taking 3rd and 9 over 3rd and 19 to me was much worse. Going on 4th earlier in FG range where the FG gave you the lead was worse.
But like most coaches decisions if they work they are praised, when they don’t they are attacked. I thought all 3 were bad decisions but the pass to win at the end was the least dumb of the 3 to me

You think throwing to a heavily guarded WR that the DB has major positioning on is in any way a good call? Man, I don't get it.

 

[conner01]

If you are going to play best case scenario then a run is still a better call as the RB could score a TD and "win it right then and there".

If you are going to play best case scenario then you go for a hail mary on every offensive play in your own territory.

It was a horrible tactical decision. It has ALWAYS been a horrible tactical decision to stop the clock for an opponent without timeouts.

Kneeling down would have been a better tactical call in that moment.

I would have used one of my run two point plays. Something on the edge with lead blockers. If it works you get the first, if it fails you eat a lot of clock. But that decision to me wasn’t his worst. I can see the thought process of dealing the game even though I don’t agree with it. I can’t see the logic of going on 4th down earlier when a FG gives you the lead or declining the penalty leavibg 3rd and 9 as opposed to 2nd and 19

 

[Nav22]

I don’t hate the decision. But Cooks looked open underneath.

The problem is the Seahawks corner sat on that route. If 88 cuts inside he scores with ease.

Corner knew the route and sat on it

The decision to pass made no sense. The endzone shot to Lamb compounded it.

We didn't need a TD to "ice the game", we literally just needed 3 yards!!!

You can try to get the 1st down while also ensuring that the clock keeps running. Either run the ball or call a safe pass play, like a screen.

Worst case scenario you burn 40 seconds and then kick the FG, leaving them with 1:00 and no timeouts needing a TD.

I'm still annoyed by it. I just can't believe we did something so silly with the game hanging in the balance like that. The defense stepped up and made it a moot point, but man, it really could've cost us.

 

[Flamma]

The decision to pass made no sense. The endzone shot to Lamb compounded it.

We didn't need a TD to "ice the game", we literally just needed 3 yards!!!

You can try to get the 1st down while also ensuring that the clock keeps running. Either run the ball or call a safe pass play, like a screen.

Worst case scenario you burn 40 seconds and then kick the FG, leaving them with 1:00 and no timeouts needing a TD.

I'm still annoyed by it. I just can't believe we did something so silly with the game hanging in the balance like that. The defense stepped up and made it a moot point, but man, it really could've cost us.

We can't do that against the Eagles or 49ers. They'll make us pay just like Romo made the Giants pay in 2015. Same situation. I don't care if the Cowboys call run or pass, just make sure the clock keeps running no matter what you choose.

 

[Nav22]

We can't do that against the Eagles or 49ers. They'll make us pay just like Romo made the Giants pay in 2015. Same situation. I don't care if the Cowboys call run or pass, just make sure the clock keeps running no matter what you choose.

I was also thinking we maybe should've gone for it on that 4th and 3, even after the incompletion to Lamb.

Probably around a 50% chance we convert on 4th and 3.

You get 3 yards, the game's over.

If you don't get 3 yards, Seattle takes over at their own 18, needing a FG to tie or a TD to win.

Instead, we just handed them the ball at their own 25, trailing by 6 with plenty of time. And that's assuming Aubrey even makes the FG (he's bound to miss one eventually).

The more I think about it, the more I think we probably should've gone for it on 4th down.

 

[Flamma]

I was also thinking we maybe should've gone for it on that 4th and 3, even after the incompletion to Lamb.

Probably around a 50% chance we convert on 4th and 3.

You get 3 yards, the game's over.

If you don't get 3 yards, Seattle takes over at their own 18, needing a FG to tie or a TD to win.

Instead, we just handed them the ball at their own 25, trailing by 6 with plenty of time. And that's assuming Aubrey even makes the FG (he's bound to miss one eventually).

The more I think about it, the more I think we probably should've gone for it on 4th down.

You're probably right. Because the defense had to come up big no matter what. What difference does it make if it's for a FG or TD? But what they should have done was run a play that ran the clock. No need for going for it. They're not getting a TD in a minute with no timeouts.

Tony Romy did this back in 2015 and got like 40 yards on the first 2 plays. We ending up scoring with like 13 seconds left. 13 seconds we never should have had if Eli just took a knee.

 

[Nav22]

You're probably right. Because the defense had to come up big no matter what. What difference does it make if it's for a FG or TD? But what they should have done was run a play that ran the clock. No need for going for it. They're not getting a TD in a minute with no timeouts.

Tony Romy did this back in 2015 and got like 40 yards on the first 2 plays. We ending up scoring with like 13 seconds left. 13 seconds we never should have had if Eli just took a knee.

Yep, I remember that game well.

And I remember being VERY happy to see the Giants kick the FG to go up 6, rather than go for it on 4th and goal to ice the game (or at worst, make us start inside our own 3 yard line needing a FG to tie).

Like you said, those are the moments you can't botch if you want to beat the best teams.

Didn't we go all-in on hiring analytics nerds this offseason??? What the hell are they getting paid for???

 

[nalam]

That call was one of the worst calls I have seen MM make. A first down ends the game…. You absolutely run the ball in that situation.

Opting for a 3rd and 7 over the 2nd and 19 was also dumb.

Also the delay of game penalty that took us from 2nd and 2 to 2nd and 7 in the RZ. Inexcusable.

MM struggles with basic situational football awareness imo…

Agree with 2 out of 3, delay of game was more on dak and sideline was trying to take TO but couldn’t or something. But unfortunately for some reason , in goal line sitautions, we perform better in 7 yard sitauation rather than 2 yards.

Recall the 1st possession we went to the goal line , has 1st and goal at 3 yard line but came away with 3 points.

 

[ghst187]

Didn’t like the play call at all, there was a real chance we run it and possibly get the first down that way, worst case the clock runs way down and you kick it.
Was honestly surprised they didn’t throw a PI flag the way they were calling things all eve.

 

[Carson]

Didn’t like the play call at all, there was a real chance we run it and possibly get the first down that way, worst case the clock runs way down and you kick it.
Was honestly surprised they didn’t throw a PI flag the way they were calling things all eve.

This was my gripe. Run bebind Martin or Smith get your 3 yards and game over.

 

[Creeper]

2 things you did not want to happen on that 3rd down play. 1 is lose the football. 2 is stop the clock. Even if Dak takes a sack there they are still in chip shot FG range. But the clock would continue to run.

I saw no point in throwing into the end zone especially on a fade. Maybe Dallas was hoping the trigger happy refs would throw another flag there. But Dallas had a chance to get a first down without getting into the end zone. That also would have ended the game. So if you felt you really wanted to throw why not throw a high percentage pass for 4 yards to get the first down? If the pass isn't there Dak runs for however many yards he can get. Even if he gets nothing they still can kick the FG. But against the clock keeps running. Or maybe you roll Dak out and if there is no one open he heads up field and gets what he can. That might have been the best option since it would take more time off the clock.

At that point in the game, the clock is the enemy of Seattle and the friend of the Cowboys. As it turned out they won but that could have gone very badly. I am of the belief you never stop the clock in that situation. Take every second off the clock you can and make the other team press to get downfield. On defense, you take away the outside route and make they use 20 seconds on completion.