The 2015 Dallas Cowboys and the Myth of DeMarco Murray

[percyhoward]

Lets hope not. But the OP said,

" I expect to see us pass the ball more, and that isn't a bad thing. We were 7th in the league in yards last year and only 5th in scoring, because we handcuffed the offense. "

I do think its a bad thing and the wrong formula.

By "big increase," I mean something that would put us back up in the top half of the league in attempts. We won't be there unless the defense struggles.

Here's where we've ranked in pass attempts per season.
2011 11th
2012 3rd
2013 13th
2014 31st

 

[BoysFanInPhilly]

I know, he probably is a troll from Phiily.....looking to troll DM signing.....

What? I thought I was the troll from Philly!

 

[erod]

Are you crazy? .
2013 we had the 14th ranked passing 24th running 8 wins
2014 we had the 16th ranked passing 2nd running 12 wins
Obviously running was the strength last year

No, it wasn't. Romo created those running lanes as much as the offensive line. There were a LOT of 0 and 1 yard runs. Romo threw teams out of stacking the box, and THEN the running games opened up.

The threat of Romo and the receivers doesn't allow teams to crowd the box. When Romo was out of the game, Murray couldn't gain a yard.

 

[BoysFanInPhilly]

No, it wasn't. Romo created those running lanes as much as the offensive line. There were a LOT of 0 and 1 yard runs. Romo threw teams out of stacking the box, and THEN the running games opened up.

The threat of Romo and the receivers doesn't allow teams to crowd the box. When Romo was out of the game, Murray couldn't gain a yard.

WOW the boys must be even better than I thought 2nd best rushing team in the league and rushing wasn't the strength.

 

[erod]

WOW the boys must be even better than I thought 2nd best rushing team in the league and rushing wasn't the strength.

Or perhaps you could just learn football.

There's a story and reason behind statistics, young padawa.

 

[BlindFaith]

Yep.......Not drafting one of the talented backs was a major let down.

But I honestly don't see this as the YEAR for the Cowboys. They are a top team, but unless this defense becomes top 7ish, then I dont see them winning a SB. In my mind they are about a year away. And I am betting that next season they go out and get that top back in the draft.

Top 5 D and a top back and then we are talking best team in the NFL.

Getting a decent running back makes this team a legit SB contender this year. No question. The defense will be much improved from last year. It may take some time, Gregory getting up to speed, Hardy coming back, Rolando coming back. Lawrence continuing to improve. Lee stays healthy. Hopefully someone steps up and out plays Hayden. Mincey being relegated to a bit player.

But the potential is certainly there.

I do have grave fears if we roll into the season with what we have at RB.

 

[CowboyRoy]

Getting a decent running back makes this team a legit SB contender this year. No question. The defense will be much improved from last year. It may take some time, Gregory getting up to speed, Hardy coming back, Rolando coming back. Lawrence continuing to improve. Lee stays healthy. Hopefully someone steps up and out plays Hayden. Mincey being relegated to a bit player.

But the potential is certainly there.

I do have grave fears if we roll into the season with what we have at RB.

Grave fears of what? Going 8-8? Not winning the SB?

 

[JoeBoBBY]

By "big increase," I mean something that would put us back up in the top half of the league in attempts. We won't be there unless the defense struggles.

Here's where we've ranked in pass attempts per season.
2011 11th
2012 3rd
2013 13th
2014 31st

And thats a great stat. Like this one:

Record:

2011 8-8
2012 8-8
2013 8-8
2014 12-4.

 

[CowboyRoy]

No, it wasn't. Romo created those running lanes as much as the offensive line. There were a LOT of 0 and 1 yard runs. Romo threw teams out of stacking the box, and THEN the running games opened up.

The threat of Romo and the receivers doesn't allow teams to crowd the box. When Romo was out of the game, Murray couldn't gain a yard.

You guys are splitting hairs here. Why does it matter which was the #1 strength? The point is that they were both amazing strengths which made the offense all world. But there is no doubt that the #2 ranked run game changed the entire dimension and attitude of the team. We all of a sudden became a physical football team and more importantly a physical offense.

 

[CowboyRoy]

And thats a great stat. Like this one:

Record:

2011 8-8
2012 8-8
2013 8-8
2014 12-4.

How can anyone even bother to attempt to argue the run game when looking at those stats of record?

Romo and the quality passing game has been the one consistent element to all 4 of those years. The one big difference in those years is the run game going from bad to great in 2014. BAM........instant turnaround and 12-4 season.

 

[percyhoward]

And thats a great stat. Like this one:

Record:

2011 8-8
2012 8-8
2013 8-8
2014 12-4.

Cause and effect aren't as easy to distinguish as it may seem on the surface. We didn't really win just because we ran more. Part of it was that we won because we ran better, and that allowed us to run more. Equally important was the fact that we ran more and passed less because we were winning -- the result of better offense and defense. Winning leads to more rushing attempts and yards, and fewer passing attempts and yards.

Romo's pass attempts
1st half of game
2011-13 17.4
2014 17.5

We didn't pass any less in the first half of games than we had been. The reason we ranked in the top half of the league in pass attempts from 2011-13 was that we were usually playing catch-up in the second half. That didn't happen in 2014.

Romo's pass attempts
2nd half of game
2011-13 19.5
2014 11.6

Romo threw 8 fewer passes in the 2nd half of each game in 2014 than he had been from 2011-13. That's basically the entire reason the team dropped so far down the pass attempts rankings. The Cowboys weren't behind in the 2nd half of games in 2014. A big part of that was running the ball better, another big part was passing better, and another big part was better defense.

 

[BlindFaith]

Grave fears of what? Going 8-8? Not winning the SB?

Both. But mostly not getting to a Super Bowl. If Randle proves me completely wrong and we get something out of somebody else, I think we can sneak into the playoffs. But I don't think we get far. Not unless Randle is lights out. That's a lot to ask for.

 

[JoeBoBBY]

Grave fears of what? Going 8-8? Not winning the SB?

My grave fear is, not winning the division becuase of it.

Cause and effect aren't as easy to distinguish as it may seem on the surface. We didn't really win just because we ran more. Part of it was that we won because we ran better, and that allowed us to run more. Equally important was the fact that we ran more and passed less because we were winning -- the result of better offense and defense. Winning leads to more rushing attempts and yards, and fewer passing attempts and yards.

Romo's pass attempts
1st half of game
2011-13 17.4
2014 17.5

We didn't pass any less in the first half of games than we had been. The reason we ranked in the top half of the league in pass attempts from 2011-13 was that we were usually playing catch-up in the second half. That didn't happen in 2014.

Romo's pass attempts
2nd half of game
2011-13 19.5
2014 11.6

Romo threw 8 fewer passes in the 2nd half of each game in 2014 than he had been from 2011-13. That's basically the entire reason the team dropped so far down the pass attempts rankings. The Cowboys weren't behind in the 2nd half of games in 2014. A big part of that was running the ball better, another big part was passing better, and another big part was better defense.

We tried to run in 11-13. It didnt work. Well, its finally worked. Stick with it. In fact, I would like to see more of it. Take that OL, find a few more backs. Gus, Randle, DMC, charlie chickenface, whoever, and run the football....................please.

 

[erod]

You guys are splitting hairs here. Why does it matter which was the #1 strength? The point is that they were both amazing strengths which made the offense all world. But there is no doubt that the #2 ranked run game changed the entire dimension and attitude of the team. We all of a sudden became a physical football team and more importantly a physical offense.

The point is, you can pass and score without a running game. You can't run and score without a passing game.

Seattle would be 6-10 the past two years without its defense.

Romo is the key. Always has been.

 

[percyhoward]

We tried to run in 11-13. It didn't work. Well, its finally worked. Stick with it.

We will, as long as we're running well and playing good defense.

Unless the defense is so good, that we no longer have any reason to trade points for time, in order to give the opposing offense fewer opportunities to score. Because that's what we did in 2014.

Here is our pass/run ratio, broken down by quarter:
1st 49.6% pass / 50.4% run
2nd 56.3% pass / 43.7% run
3rd 46.7% pass / 53.3% run
4th 45.9% pass / 54.1% run

Here is the scoring margin by quarter, not including return TD:
1st +33 (95 - 62)
2nd +55 (140 - 85)
3rd +52 (110 - 58)
4th -17 (105 - 122)

 

[JoeBoBBY]

The point is, you can pass and score without a running game. You can't run and score without a passing game.

Seattle would be 6-10 the past two years without its defense.

Romo is the key. Always has been.

Its a double locked door. It needs both Romo and the Running game and/or dominating Defense.

 

[DandyDon52]

I get you want to defend Murray but that fumble was the biggest mistake made in that game. How anyone denies that is peculiar. If he doesn't fumble, he probably gets another 20 yards and we are within FG range. We can chew more clock and keep the defense off the field.

We couldn't rush a QB all season and yet managed to win 12 games. Trying to blame the pass rush for the loss is peculiar when we all knew going into the game our pass rush kinda sucked anyway,

Well dallas made many mistakes, and the 2 biggest, were the fumble, and the meltdown at end of 2nd half.
At end of half, after witten catching a ball 1 yd short of a 1st down ( ran his route 1 yd short), then on 3rd and one instead of running with murray,
Dallas was 3 for 3 on 3rd running murray, romo kills the play, Then looks away ball is snapped , he doesnt catch it, picks it up and just chunks it downfield out of bounds.

So then it is 4th and one, they could have gone for it, but elect to kick a 45 yd fg, bailey then misses that wide right ( he was awful in playoffs)
so there was a flag, false start or illegal motion, so they get another chance, but it is 50 this time.
So as a HC, my kicker just missed the 45 yd kick, and if this one is missed GB and rodgers gets the ball at the 45 with 30 seconds left.
So do you now punt or try the FG again? I think punt, but JG goes for the kick, and it goes wide right again!

Then rodgers only has to go 20 to 25 yds to be in fg range, and they do, so it was a 6 point swing, and dallas lost by 6.

then in 2nd half GB offense had the 2 long drives, and dallas had one.

But there was no single play that lost the game, it was poor play all during the game by whole team.

And on the murray fumble, lets say peppers doesnt knock the ball out, and he gets 20 yards or 30 yards, the way dallas was playing,
they could have had any number of penaltys, or thngs go wrong, or missed fg, int, another fumble etc. YOu cant just assume they
get a TD if no fumble.

 

[big dog cowboy]

This thread gave me a headache.

 

[DandyDon52]

Agree with everything accept resigning Murray. To me, it was one of the most important things in the offseason. NOT overpaying for Murray.

Because we didnt pay Murray, we are able to afford a Kraken and a Gregory with a high draft pick. The majority of Murray's production can be replaced by several solid/cost effective backs to team with the best Oline in the NFL. If Murray wanted 5 million per year, then great resign him. He didnt.

Now personally, I wanted a stud rookie in the draft. That would have solved cheap, and a great back. But not at the price of Randy Gregory or the Corner. 3rd round is where they screwed up in my opinion. They took the tackle instead of the back.

That is what I dont get, murray is worth 5 mil but not 6 or 7 ! lol what is the difference? 1 or 2 mil one way or the other is nothing.
The other is how is Dez worth 13 mil a year but murray only worth 5 or 6 mil ??
Last year it was all murray than made the difference in winning the 4 extra games over 8-8, yet dez gets the big money contract and
murray gets the boot ?"

looking at that, the cowboys and many fans feel dez alone was more than twice as valuable as murray.
And maybe that is right, we shall see this year, if dez can help get them to 12-4 with no murray, and maybe in the playoffs, he can catch more than
3 passes a game.

 

[big dog cowboy]

The other is how is Dez worth 13 mil a year but murray only worth 5 or 6 mil ??

Apples and oranges. One is an elite player at his position and the other is just above average. One plays a position of demand and the other doesn't.