Montanalo
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It is snowing like crazy and, as I have already prepared my 2017 taxes, I thought I might play around with the 2018 draft.
I love everything about the draft -- from the senior bowl to the combine and, eventually, the draft itself. Hope springs eternal every April. I especially love the debates of priority or need vs. BPA, pet cats and the identification of some obscure talent or hidden gem the Cowboys might benefit.
With this as a backdrop, I used a Monte Carlo simulation method to analyze the draft...not so much as to predict who the Cowboys might select in each round but rather to understand the type of talent that might be available for selection. Did I mention it is snowing a lot?
Using the most recent Bleacher Report for prospect ranking and individual team priorities, I ran a 1000 simulations to arrive at the following:
What to make of this little exercise? Not much with regard to "who" we might select. Given the assumptions on player ranking and individual team priortities, the simulation provides some early insight as to the positional strengths of the draft.
I love everything about the draft -- from the senior bowl to the combine and, eventually, the draft itself. Hope springs eternal every April. I especially love the debates of priority or need vs. BPA, pet cats and the identification of some obscure talent or hidden gem the Cowboys might benefit.
With this as a backdrop, I used a Monte Carlo simulation method to analyze the draft...not so much as to predict who the Cowboys might select in each round but rather to understand the type of talent that might be available for selection. Did I mention it is snowing a lot?
Using the most recent Bleacher Report for prospect ranking and individual team priorities, I ran a 1000 simulations to arrive at the following:
- Round 1 -- DT had the highest probability of selection, followed by LB, and then OT. WR was pretty far down the list. The most commonly selected DT was Christian Wilkins followed closely by Maurice Hurst and Vita Vea
- Round 2 and 3 -- I grouped these two rounds together as there was a fairly even distribution between three positions: OT, WR and TE. In order, Deon Cain, Simmie Cobbs and DJ Clark were the top WR's selected in these rounds. TE was interesting with Mark Andrews, Troy Fumugali and Hayden Hurst
- Round 4 and 5 -- Almost regardless the team priorities, the mid-rounds were dominated by defensive positions LB, CB and DT, followed by OG
What to make of this little exercise? Not much with regard to "who" we might select. Given the assumptions on player ranking and individual team priortities, the simulation provides some early insight as to the positional strengths of the draft.