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The Grand Poobah
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How Much Is a Running Back Worth?
By Tim Wilson 28 Comments Veteran Sports Illustrated scribe and sometimes crazed rambler Peter King has an article today over at SI.com on the relative value of the running back position in today’s NFL. While I often disagree with King’s opinions, this is an issue that he seems to be right on trend with. King’s overall point that it does not make sense to invest heavily in a running back in the current NFL climate, because serviceable backs can be had relatively cheap without too much dropoff in production.
There are two ways to “invest” heavily in a running back: 1) award a RB a big free-agent contract, or 2) spend a high draft pick on one.
King seems to indict the two approaches equally in his column. He notes that of the 5 leading rushers in Week 10, four were undrafted, and one (Clinton Portis) was a second round pick. Meanwhile, numerous high-profile and high-priced veteran RBs are failing to produce (Shaun Alexander, Edgerrin James), at least at a level which warrants their team’s investment. In the case of Alexander and James, that investment comes in the form of a substantial cap hit, not a draft pick.
I would tweak King’s message a bit. Yes, it is possible to find serviceable backs on the relative cheap (Marion Barber, 4th round pick, $435K salary in 2007). I would certainly agree that giving veteran RBs big free agent contracts, particularly veterans with a lot of wear on their tires (Alexander was given his big contract immediately after a season in which he logged 370 carries), is not a wise move. Although these backs may have made major contributions in the past, perhaps even to your own franchise, history has shown that their production will fall off a cliff in their late 20’s/early 30’s. An unsentimental, “Next man up” approach is exponentially cheaper, and often nets better production as well.
It is less clear if it is worth it to invest a top draft pick in a running back, however. Ultimately, yes, good RBs can be found in the later rounds, or even as undrafted free agents. However, if you look outside of Week 10, where King has focused himself, at the lead backs for each NFL franchise, you will find that many of the NFL’s premier running backs are still high draft choices. Ladanian Tomlinson, Adrian Peterson, Steven Jackson, Ronnie Brown, Reggie Bush, Joseph Addai, Portis, Laurence Maroney, and more were all picked in the first or second round. Valuable backs like Brandon Jacobs and Marion Barber III were 4th round picks, but still required a Day 1 draft investment from their teams.
Ultimately, it is fine to say that “you can find someone on the street to gain 1,200 yards for you,” as King does, but the reality is probably a bit different– you can almost always find someone to fill in and potentially produce in a given game, but finding a sustainable 1,200 yards RB is a more difficult task, as the Buccaneers, Lions, and Packers can attest to.
A mid-level of investment is the safest path to both limiting your risk and ensuring production– the current Cowboys model is actually probably an ideal one, with two reasonably priced backs, neither one a first round pick but both taken on Day 1, producing at a very high level and running behind an offensive line that is heavily invested in and which ensures consistency week-to-week.
This is particularly relevant given the Cowboys’ upcoming decisions on not just Julius Jones but MB3 as well. Julius is an unrestricted free agent this offseason, and Barber is a restricted free agent (one who will probably require a 1st and 3rd round tender). Based on their youth and current success, Dallas should be willing to make some investment to keep both of them, but there is a cap on that commitment, as no one wants to be running the next Edgerrin James into the line for a 1 yard gain every Sunday, while paying him 10% of your cap.
By Tim Wilson 28 Comments Veteran Sports Illustrated scribe and sometimes crazed rambler Peter King has an article today over at SI.com on the relative value of the running back position in today’s NFL. While I often disagree with King’s opinions, this is an issue that he seems to be right on trend with. King’s overall point that it does not make sense to invest heavily in a running back in the current NFL climate, because serviceable backs can be had relatively cheap without too much dropoff in production.
There are two ways to “invest” heavily in a running back: 1) award a RB a big free-agent contract, or 2) spend a high draft pick on one.
King seems to indict the two approaches equally in his column. He notes that of the 5 leading rushers in Week 10, four were undrafted, and one (Clinton Portis) was a second round pick. Meanwhile, numerous high-profile and high-priced veteran RBs are failing to produce (Shaun Alexander, Edgerrin James), at least at a level which warrants their team’s investment. In the case of Alexander and James, that investment comes in the form of a substantial cap hit, not a draft pick.
I would tweak King’s message a bit. Yes, it is possible to find serviceable backs on the relative cheap (Marion Barber, 4th round pick, $435K salary in 2007). I would certainly agree that giving veteran RBs big free agent contracts, particularly veterans with a lot of wear on their tires (Alexander was given his big contract immediately after a season in which he logged 370 carries), is not a wise move. Although these backs may have made major contributions in the past, perhaps even to your own franchise, history has shown that their production will fall off a cliff in their late 20’s/early 30’s. An unsentimental, “Next man up” approach is exponentially cheaper, and often nets better production as well.
It is less clear if it is worth it to invest a top draft pick in a running back, however. Ultimately, yes, good RBs can be found in the later rounds, or even as undrafted free agents. However, if you look outside of Week 10, where King has focused himself, at the lead backs for each NFL franchise, you will find that many of the NFL’s premier running backs are still high draft choices. Ladanian Tomlinson, Adrian Peterson, Steven Jackson, Ronnie Brown, Reggie Bush, Joseph Addai, Portis, Laurence Maroney, and more were all picked in the first or second round. Valuable backs like Brandon Jacobs and Marion Barber III were 4th round picks, but still required a Day 1 draft investment from their teams.
Ultimately, it is fine to say that “you can find someone on the street to gain 1,200 yards for you,” as King does, but the reality is probably a bit different– you can almost always find someone to fill in and potentially produce in a given game, but finding a sustainable 1,200 yards RB is a more difficult task, as the Buccaneers, Lions, and Packers can attest to.
A mid-level of investment is the safest path to both limiting your risk and ensuring production– the current Cowboys model is actually probably an ideal one, with two reasonably priced backs, neither one a first round pick but both taken on Day 1, producing at a very high level and running behind an offensive line that is heavily invested in and which ensures consistency week-to-week.
This is particularly relevant given the Cowboys’ upcoming decisions on not just Julius Jones but MB3 as well. Julius is an unrestricted free agent this offseason, and Barber is a restricted free agent (one who will probably require a 1st and 3rd round tender). Based on their youth and current success, Dallas should be willing to make some investment to keep both of them, but there is a cap on that commitment, as no one wants to be running the next Edgerrin James into the line for a 1 yard gain every Sunday, while paying him 10% of your cap.
