The Butterfly Effect

[jday]

I'm sure Panthers fans felt great going into this year, clearly one of the teams to beat. I'll bet some of their more loquacious fans were expounding on their potential for a dynasty . And cardinals fans. And Broncos fans. In fact, fans of all 6 teams who made the playoffs last year and failed to get back there this year probably felt good to great going into this season. Now they have their Sundays free until September. If we waste this opportunity we may look back at it like a building block, but the odds are against it. I don't care about next year, I care about right now. Butterflies live and die in a year, and so do their effects. Because next year there will be a new butterfly flapping its wings and changing everything again.

You were making a fairly solid argument up until you said the "odds are against it." What odds? I’m familiar with the odds that have been established that at least 5 teams will miss the playoffs after making it the previous year. But that is 5 of 12 team; which means 7 that were in it are still in it, which would actually suggest that the odds are in the Cowboys favor.


http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/09/01/nfl-continues-trend-of-high-playoff-turnover/


But let's assume for the sake of argument that you are right and that this is usually how the playoffs are decided; by a collection of teams that weren't in the playoff the year prior. Are you simply making a blanket statement or did you actually do the research that would suggest the Cowboys model is the same as the Panthers, Cardinals and Broncos and that their absence from the 2017 playoffs is all but assured?


There are reasons why all three of the aforementioned teams didn't make it this year...none of which, I believe, will apply to the Cowboys next season.


Starting with the Panthers - they quite simply weren't the same team from a year ago and opposing defenses have largely caught up to their style of offense. Add to that the loss of key personnel over the offseason, the lack of top tier weapons for Cam Newton to get some help from and the fact that Cam openly admitted to the world he was scared in the pocket and I'd say the Panthers fans, to an extent, should have seen this coming.


The Broncos lost their quarterback in the offseason. No real comparison here; the Cowboys have found their QB of the future and he should only be better next season.


The Cardinals? http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...-to-the-once-feared-arizona-cardinals-offense

Does that sound anything like what the Cowboys will face in 2017? Do you think over the course of one offseason Dak will age 12 years? Ultimately, the Cardinals have gotten old at some key positions and it has shown…end of story. Transversely, the Cowboys boast one of the youngest rosters in the NFL, and may leapfrog to the youngest should Romo and Witten call it quits following this season.

So, in my opinion, this Cowboys team will actually be better next year. Add back the players outlined in the OP along with another youth-injection from the draft and next year’s offense and defense very well could dominate. Or you could hinge your happiness on this year and let it ruin your entire offseason should they not make it. I won’t say there is a wrong and right perspective, but one perspective is action-packed with potential misery.

 

[jday]

I really like your post but I couldn't help thinking of that movie

To me the Butterfly Effect is when you go back in time and step on one butterfly and it changes the future drastically

Like Dez stretching awkwardly during a tackle against NYG on opening Day in 2015
He now misses time with a hurt foot and DAL trades for Brice Butler
Brice Butler is confused the next week against PHI and runs the wrong route
This confusion causes Romo to hold onto the ball with no blocking and gets sacked
He gets landed on and breaks his collarbone
Weeden struggles, Cassel struggles, KMoore is eventually signed
Romo rushes back and gets hurt again against CAR
DAL gets 4th overall pick after finishing 4-12 and the coaches get to coach the Senior Bowl
DAL wants Wentz and Goff but they are taken 1-2
DAL drafts EElliott at 4
DAL drafts Dak Prescott(with 4th round comp they received for losing JParnell) after he was MVP of Senior Bowl
KMoore breaks his leg at camp
TRomo breaks his back against SEA
Dak Prescott plays more and immediately impresses

THE REST Is HISTORY

No, you are right. This was not a description of the butterfly effect. That was a more a play on words.

 

[Nightman]

No, you are right. This was not a description of the butterfly effect. That was a more a play on words.

Lol.....more of an Ugly Duckling tale....... something beautiful coming from what looked like a mess

 

[jday]

Lol.....more of an Ugly Duckling tale....... something beautiful coming from what looked like a mess

Hmm. I might use that later. Thanks.

 

[jday]

What the Jaguars call Jermey Parnell, the Cowboys now call Dak Prescott.

What 2015 calls 4-12, the Cowboys now call Zeke Elliott.

Them's some pretty butterflies indeed.

I thought it was the comp pick we got for Murray going to the Eagles. Are you certain?

 

[Diehardblues]

Dak must make it to at least the championship game which wound surpass Romo's playoff success in his first season . Anything short of that then the second guessing will consume the off-season and cause more doubt moving forward with Dak.

 

[Nightman]

I thought it was the comp pick we got for Murray going to the Eagles. Are you certain?

Murray was erased by Greg Hardy......might have been a 3rd but probably first 4th given

 

[Diehardblues]

The longer Dak goes in his career not surpassing Romo it will fester and grow.

All we need for reference is looking back to our high hopes and expectations when Romo sparked us. And 10 years later have left us frustrated and disappointed yearning for more and why we're so excited about the prospects Dak presents.

This is why he must have more success in the playoffs. The sooner the better if you want to curb the criticism .

 

[Diehardblues]

I thought it was the comp pick we got for Murray going to the Eagles. Are you certain?

Correct. Dak was used with our second 4 th Rd pick .

 

[jday]

The longer Dak goes in his career not surpassing Romo it will fester and grow.

All we need for reference is looking back to our high hopes and expectations when Romo sparked us. And 10 years later have left us frustrated and disappointed yearning for more and why we're so excited about the prospects Dak presents.

This is why he must have more success in the playoffs. The sooner the better if you want to curb the criticism .

Don't get me wrong. I don't expect the media to leave it alone. There will always be someone plugging the Cowboys some how and if you are fan of any other team you have an innate hate for the Dallas Cowboys. So, as unbiased as they claim to be, many of them are pretty obvious. I avoid many venues for this reason. While others I'll stop by to watch them squirm through Cowboys success.

In the OP, I was really just pointing out that contrary to recent seasons where the Cowboys have had success and then fallen off a cliff, this Cowboys team has potential staying power as perennial playoff contenders.

 

[JDSmith]

You were making a fairly solid argument up until you said the "odds are against it." What odds? I’m familiar with the odds that have been established that at least 5 teams will miss the playoffs after making it the previous year. But that is 5 of 12 team; which means 7 that were in it are still in it, which would actually suggest that the odds are in the Cowboys favor.


http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/09/01/nfl-continues-trend-of-high-playoff-turnover/


But let's assume for the sake of argument that you are right and that this is usually how the playoffs are decided; by a collection of teams that weren't in the playoff the year prior. Are you simply making a blanket statement or did you actually do the research that would suggest the Cowboys model is the same as the Panthers, Cardinals and Broncos and that their absence from the 2017 playoffs is all but assured?


There are reasons why all three of the aforementioned teams didn't make it this year...none of which, I believe, will apply to the Cowboys next season.


Starting with the Panthers - they quite simply weren't the same team from a year ago and opposing defenses have largely caught up to their style of offense. Add to that the loss of key personnel over the offseason, the lack of top tier weapons for Cam Newton to get some help from and the fact that Cam openly admitted to the world he was scared in the pocket and I'd say the Panthers fans, to an extent, should have seen this coming.


The Broncos lost their quarterback in the offseason. No real comparison here; the Cowboys have found their QB of the future and he should only be better next season.


The Cardinals? http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...-to-the-once-feared-arizona-cardinals-offense

Does that sound anything like what the Cowboys will face in 2017? Do you think over the course of one offseason Dak will age 12 years? Ultimately, the Cardinals have gotten old at some key positions and it has shown…end of story. Transversely, the Cowboys boast one of the youngest rosters in the NFL, and may leapfrog to the youngest should Romo and Witten call it quits following this season.

So, in my opinion, this Cowboys team will actually be better next year. Add back the players outlined in the OP along with another youth-injection from the draft and next year’s offense and defense very well could dominate. Or you could hinge your happiness on this year and let it ruin your entire offseason should they not make it. I won’t say there is a wrong and right perspective, but one perspective is action-packed with potential misery.

The odds of this team building itself into a perennial contender and winning multiple Super Bowls are slim. This isn't 1992, you don't build a core of great players and dominate for 4 or 5 years. Free agency has eliminated depth as it used to be, and any injury to a key player could completely derail a season. If Travis Frederick blows his ACL in OTAs what happens to our great offensive line? As it is Doug Free is already declining, and next year we'll almost certainly be back to playing Collins (who has never shown himself to be as good as Leary, in spite of his supposedly higher ceiling). We could lose one or more CBs etc...

You made a case why each of those teams faltered, but how many people were making those cases in the preseason? It's easy in hindsight to say why someone who had success ultimately failed, far harder to predict it. We might build a dynasty and look back on this year as a success like 1991 is viewed through the lens of time. Or we might look at it like 2007. Far more teams have 2007 type years in the parity NFL, very few have 1991 seasons that lead to extended success. That's why I said the odds are against it. I don't want to be the Lions or some other scrub team making the playoffs with virtually no chance to sniff the Super Bowl. That's not success, it's just slightly less failure. This year we have an opportunity few teams get, we are the number 1 seed. We need to make it count this year, not hope for it to pay off in some hypothetical dynastic fantasy.

 

[roughneck266]

I'll match your Lao Tzu
And raise you........

Liu Kang

I used to kick serious butt with Liu Kang.

 

[LocimusPrime]

I used to kick serious butt with Liu Kang.

 

[jday]

The odds of this team building itself into a perennial contender and winning multiple Super Bowls are slim. This isn't 1992, you don't build a core of great players and dominate for 4 or 5 years. Free agency has eliminated depth as it used to be, and any injury to a key player could completely derail a season. If Travis Frederick blows his ACL in OTAs what happens to our great offensive line? As it is Doug Free is already declining, and next year we'll almost certainly be back to playing Collins (who has never shown himself to be as good as Leary, in spite of his supposedly higher ceiling). We could lose one or more CBs etc...

You made a case why each of those teams faltered, but how many people were making those cases in the preseason? It's easy in hindsight to say why someone who had success ultimately failed, far harder to predict it. We might build a dynasty and look back on this year as a success like 1991 is viewed through the lens of time. Or we might look at it like 2007. Far more teams have 2007 type years in the parity NFL, very few have 1991 seasons that lead to extended success. That's why I said the odds are against it. I don't want to be the Lions or some other scrub team making the playoffs with virtually no chance to sniff the Super Bowl. That's not success, it's just slightly less failure. This year we have an opportunity few teams get, we are the number 1 seed. We need to make it count this year, not hope for it to pay off in some hypothetical dynastic fantasy.

Strong argument you make here, but I suspect you are confusing how we want the players and organization to feel versus how fans should feel. As far as the team is concerned, they should absolutely practice and play like this is their one and only chance. That is absolutely the truth...because you are right in the sense that anything could happen next year; this very well could be their last chance. Circumstances very well could dictate that.

But as a fan, as I stated in the OP, there is a difference between how we can view the future now versus the perspective we had for the future following the 2014 season. Injuries happen. Free Agency happens. A whole lot of bad things could happen, but I'm not wired to plan my life around what bad things could happen. I would much rather look at what I know and plan accordingly. I know we have one of the best young running backs in the league. I know we have one of the best offensive lines in the league. I know we have a potentially great quarterback to groom. I know our defense is a work in progress, but based on the talent acquisition of this front office since the drafting of Tyron Smith, has been, for the most part, on point and therefore I can reasonably expect improvement on that side of the ball. But the most compelling piece of evidence that the future is bright is that Jerry is no longer the same ole Jerry. And with the success he has tasted as of late as a result of making smarter decisions, logically we can expect that trend to continue.

So once again, I think if you were to dive deeper in your analysis as opposed to taking a birds eye view, you would see there is a difference between these Cowboys and all the other teams that merely flashed only to disappear again in the following season. This type of team with the way it is built and with the youth it boast has staying power. Feel free to doubt my words all you like, but this team is going to be good for a very long time...at the very least 5 years, which is a heck of alot better than what we could say following 2014.

 

[Trouty]

A beautiful post, J. I expect nothing less from our best writer on these boards.

Cheers, Old Sport

 

[jday]

A beautiful post, J. I expect nothing less from our best writer on these boards.

Cheers, Old Sport

I was hoping you would swing by...thank you sir as always for the kudos...it is very much appreciated.

 

[Trouty]

I was hoping you would swing by...thank you sir as always for the kudos...it is very much appreciated.

It is very much deserved. What a lovely post, sir.

@jday did you pick up my "Old Sport" reference?

 

[jday]

It is very much deserved. What a lovely post, sir.

@jday did you pick up my "Old Sport" reference?

The Great Gatsby?

 

[Trouty]

The Great Gatsby?

Indeed, my literary friend.

 

[haleyrules]

I usually don't read or make long posts but that was well done!

Me too. But, l always read jdays!! Always heartfelt and well written!