The Case for Earl Thomas

[CyberB0b]

Let me preface this by saying that I am generally not a fan of trading first day draft picks for a player, but I feel like this is a huge exception. I believe the Cowboys should absolutely go after Earl Thomas, and I would be willing to go as high as a 2nd and a later round pick, for a number of reasons.

Great Safeties are RARE in the NFL: I can't think of 3 safeties playing right now that I would call great. There's Thomas, Berry, and everyone else. Collins is somewhere up there, but not quite in that echelon. After that, there is a steep drop off. It is a position that just doesn't have a lot of great players.

Earl Thomas is a KNOWN quantity: The draft is always a crap shoot. You can project how a player might fit your scheme or play in the NFL, but it is far from a science. Earl Thomas has proven himself.

The Cowboys have a TON of cap space in 2019: Over 70 million dollars of cap space, according to overthecap.com I realize that they have to sign a few players, but signing Earl Thomas to a large contract will largely have no impact on what the Cowboys want to do going forward.

This young secondary needs a veteran presence. We drafted a lot of young players last year who look like they have a lot of potential. Having a player like Earl Thomas playing behind them will allow them to play more aggressively and will allow them to learn from one of the greats.

Overall, I think it is a no-brainer to go after Earl Thomas. There is no one anywhere near his talent available in the draft or through free agency. He still has a few years left in the league and is still a top talent.

 

[charron]

But we are also a team that lacks depth at key positions. Giving up a 2nd round pick to also give this guy a big contract is asking alot. If we lose dlaw to injury which isnt far fetched, then we are near the bottom in regards to pressure and sacks. That in turn will mitigate the veteran at safety as qb's can complete passes at will.

 

[Section446]

It simply isn't happening.

 

[John813]

I'm all for getting a safety like Thomas, and even paying him. I'm just on the fence about the draft pick(s) going back their way.

 

[sjmike]

I would do it for a second and a fourth or later. Problem is, seattle probably won't. If he stays in Seattle, we get him next year when he becomes a free agent and give up nothing

 

[Jenky]

I would do it for a second and a fourth or later. Problem is, seattle probably won't. If he stays in Seattle, we get him next year when he becomes a free agent and give up nothing

Well Seattle knows that too so they want to get something for him. I don't see why a 2nd and a late day pick isnt good enough.

 

[jterrell]

The case AGAINST Earl Thomas:
1. His best football is in the past and he wants you to pay him for what he did in Seattle.
2. You've spent 3 years cleaning up your books so you can have this young, hungry, cheap team.
3. The Safety market is dictating that the position is relegated to cheap salary slots and you can find values in FA right now.
4. The 2 guys who most appear to be dropping based on position in this draft are Minkah Fitzpatrick and Derwin James.
5. Dallas has a tremendous, young, cheap secondary and can add to that with another draft pick as opposed to bring in a guy making more than all of them and their coaches combined.
6. DB play the last month of the season was spectacular and you just hired one of the best DB coaches in the world. You don't need Earl Thomas.

If Thomas wants 8m a year with only 15m or so guaranteed I'm in. If he wants 10M+ as is reported, I'm out. I'm also out on using draft picks for "right now" returns. Those assets are needed for 5 years return and value and meant to grow as you return draft picks when your guys sign elsewhere in free agency but high priced guys you are forced to cut do not return anything except dead money. We are likely getting a 4th round comp pick for Hitchens, we get zero for Dez Bryant except dead cap room and his future salary off the books.

 

[ehwqkbmg]

I would do it for a second and a fourth or later. Problem is, seattle probably won't. If he stays in Seattle, we get him next year when he becomes a free agent and give up nothing

They can franchise tag him for two seasons essentially having him under contract for the next three seasons. I don't think the Seahawks will be looking to trade him now that his agents have said he's not going to hold out.

 

[Cowboys22]

I think they should go after him but not for a 1st or 2nd. I believe they should pick in the 1st and 2nd and then start working on the deal until they are on the clock in the 3rd. Add another pick or possibly a wr to the deal to get it done. If not, still plenty of draft left to get a safety.

 

[Stash]

Let me preface this by saying that I am generally not a fan of trading first day draft picks for a player, but I feel like this is a huge exception. I believe the Cowboys should absolutely go after Earl Thomas, and I would be willing to go as high as a 2nd and a later round pick, for a number of reasons.

I would like to present a respectful rebuttal of your points:

Great Safeties are RARE in the NFL:

I can't think of 3 safeties playing right now that I would call great. There's Thomas, Berry, and everyone else. Collins is somewhere up there, but not quite in that echelon. After that, there is a steep drop off. It is a position that just doesn't have a lot of great players.

I agree with this. But I would then point out that "great safeties" aren't required to win a Super Bowl. Thomas is the only one I can think of who has in the last decade-plus. And he's got just one if my math is correct.

Earl Thomas is a KNOWN quantity:

The draft is always a crap shoot. You can project how a player might fit your scheme or play in the NFL, but it is far from a science. Earl Thomas has proven himself.

He has. For eight seasons now. And he's two weeks away from being 29 years old.

The Cowboys have a TON of cap space in 2019

: Over 70 million dollars of cap space, according to overthecap.com I realize that they have to sign a few players, but signing Earl Thomas to a large contract will largely have no impact on what the Cowboys want to do going forward.

For that one year? Definitely. But add up $15 million for Martin, $18 million for Lawrence (if you keep him), and then close to $30 million for Prescott (if things work out as we hope). There's $63 million right there. When that quarterback contract kicks in, things dry up really quickly.

This young secondary needs a veteran presence

. We drafted a lot of young players last year who look like they have a lot of potential. Having a player like Earl Thomas playing behind them will allow them to play more aggressively and will allow them to learn from one of the greats.

Would it help? Sure. But I don't think the young guys were lost out there at all. And as much as I like Thomas the player, when would Xavier Woods ever get the opportunity to show whether he can be the next Earl Thomas? Do we close the book on him so soon and relegate him to a part-time role player?

Overall, I think it is a no-brainer to go after Earl Thomas. There is no one anywhere near his talent available in the draft or through free agency. He still has a few years left in the league and is still a top talent.

I would ask who was the last team that traded a high pick and gave a big contract to a non-quarterback that had success and didn't regret it? Maybe there's someone I'm not thinking of? But all I keep getting are flashbacks of deals for Joey Galloway and WR Roy Williams.

 

[USMarineVet]

Let me preface this by saying that I am generally not a fan of trading first day draft picks for a player, but I feel like this is a huge exception. I believe the Cowboys should absolutely go after Earl Thomas, and I would be willing to go as high as a 2nd and a later round pick, for a number of reasons.

Great Safeties are RARE in the NFL: I can't think of 3 safeties playing right now that I would call great. There's Thomas, Berry, and everyone else. Collins is somewhere up there, but not quite in that echelon. After that, there is a steep drop off. It is a position that just doesn't have a lot of great players.

Earl Thomas is a KNOWN quantity: The draft is always a crap shoot. You can project how a player might fit your scheme or play in the NFL, but it is far from a science. Earl Thomas has proven himself.

The Cowboys have a TON of cap space in 2019: Over 70 million dollars of cap space, according to overthecap.com I realize that they have to sign a few players, but signing Earl Thomas to a large contract will largely have no impact on what the Cowboys want to do going forward.

This young secondary needs a veteran presence. We drafted a lot of young players last year who look like they have a lot of potential. Having a player like Earl Thomas playing behind them will allow them to play more aggressively and will allow them to learn from one of the greats.

Overall, I think it is a no-brainer to go after Earl Thomas. There is no one anywhere near his talent available in the draft or through free agency. He still has a few years left in the league and is still a top talent.

Excellent analysis. There's a lot we could do with that 2nd rounder but to secure E.T.'s services for the next few years would be a huge step towards grabbing another Lombardi and ending the drought. I'm witcha.

 

[conner01]

They can franchise tag him for two seasons essentially having him under contract for the next three seasons. I don't think the Seahawks will be looking to trade him now that his agents have said he's not going to hold out.

They aren’t gonna be shopping him this year and franchising him next year
But the point is not really whether he hits the market but do you give up premium picks and sign a guy who’s best football is behind him
I like ET, if he was out there for the right price I’d like to see us sign him
But giving up valuable picks and have to then sign him no matter what the asking price is doesn’t seem smart to me

 

[Jipper]

How many earl Thomas threads do we really need in this forum? Why do we insist on beating the same horse over and over....

Seattle wants too much for him, he's a 31 yo safety and only 1 year on his contract....wait till next year and sign him then for a reasonable amount or draft someone and sign 2 more guys instead

 

[Point-of-the-Star]

How many earl Thomas threads do we really need in this forum? Why do we insist on beating the same horse over and over....

Seattle wants too much for him, he's a 31 yo safety and only 1 year on his contract....wait till next year and sign him then for a reasonable amount or draft someone and sign 2 more guys instead

He'll be 29 this NFL season, he's presently 28. Born May 7,1989. Native Texan. Lifelong Cowboy fan.

Accuracy helps give validity to your other statements. I happen to agree with much the OP stated except absolutely no first or second round pick trades. NONE!!!!

 

[Sarge]

How many earl Thomas threads do we really need in this forum? Why do we insist on beating the same horse over and over....

Seattle wants too much for him, he's a 31 yo safety and only 1 year on his contract....wait till next year and sign him then for a reasonable amount or draft someone and sign 2 more guys instead

If you're going to complain - you should get your facts straight first. It would be more convincing.

 

[Jake]

Let me preface this by saying that I am generally not a fan of trading first day draft picks for a player, but I feel like this is a huge exception. I believe the Cowboys should absolutely go after Earl Thomas, and I would be willing to go as high as a 2nd and a later round pick, for a number of reasons.

Great Safeties are RARE in the NFL: I can't think of 3 safeties playing right now that I would call great. There's Thomas, Berry, and everyone else. Collins is somewhere up there, but not quite in that echelon. After that, there is a steep drop off. It is a position that just doesn't have a lot of great players.

Earl Thomas is a KNOWN quantity: The draft is always a crap shoot. You can project how a player might fit your scheme or play in the NFL, but it is far from a science. Earl Thomas has proven himself.

The Cowboys have a TON of cap space in 2019: Over 70 million dollars of cap space, according to overthecap.com I realize that they have to sign a few players, but signing Earl Thomas to a large contract will largely have no impact on what the Cowboys want to do going forward.

This young secondary needs a veteran presence. We drafted a lot of young players last year who look like they have a lot of potential. Having a player like Earl Thomas playing behind them will allow them to play more aggressively and will allow them to learn from one of the greats.

Overall, I think it is a no-brainer to go after Earl Thomas. There is no one anywhere near his talent available in the draft or through free agency. He still has a few years left in the league and is still a top talent.

Those are good points. If it was 2014 I wouldn't even challenge this post. But it's not 2014. Whether Thomas has been great is not in dispute, but it's also barely relevant to the question of acquiring him and at what cost.

How great will he be going forward, and for how long? That's the question. I'm not interested in paying one penny for what he's done in the past. The Cowboys shouldn't be either.

 

[northerncowboynation]

The seahawks asking price is a 1'st AND 2'nd round draft pick. Absolutely not!! Don't mortgage the future for a 29 year old player whose best days are behind him. Age always becomes a factor. Now, IF we were to trade down in round 1 and pick up another 3'rd round pick AND IF the Seahawks want to talk turkey for that 3'rd round pick, great!! But that's two "IFs" in the same sentence and the odds of those two "IFS" making a done deal are less than 50%. It's April 20, draft begins April 27. With every day that passes the odd's become less and the "IFs" become "IFs"

 

[snapper]

How many earl Thomas threads do we really need in this forum? Why do we insist on beating the same horse over and over....

True enough but the questions are still out there to address: Can a "31-year-old" safety help this football team win? Second question: Is Dallas Super Bowl ready and they just need a play-making safety? Final question: Does ET have another Pro Bowl year or two left?

If the Cowboys think yes to all these questions; they should make the move for a 2nd.

 

[ehwqkbmg]

They aren’t gonna be shopping him this year and franchising him next year
But the point is not really whether he hits the market but do you give up premium picks and sign a guy who’s best football is behind him
I like ET, if he was out there for the right price I’d like to see us sign him
But giving up valuable picks and have to then sign him no matter what the asking price is doesn’t seem smart to me

Why do you say his best days are behind him? looking at past Elite safeties, he's probably got 3-4 years of Elite play left and more if he's lucky. Why do you think Eric Berry got an extension into his mid 30's? I'd gladly give #50 for Thomas, but I don't think the Seahawks will want to do that now that he's not going to hold out.

 

[TheSkaven]

But we are also a team that lacks depth at key positions. Giving up a 2nd round pick to also give this guy a big contract is asking alot. If we lose dlaw to injury which isnt far fetched, then we are near the bottom in regards to pressure and sacks. That in turn will mitigate the veteran at safety as qb's can complete passes at will.

True, but safety is actually one of those positions where we could use some depth.

I agree with all of OP’s points. Aside from the secondary itself, this is a young team that could use a veteran presence not named Witten.