The difference between 2014, 2015 and 2016

[waldoputty]

The FO has been acting rationally.
Some have said they will never spend big money.
If they do not spend big money this year, they would not be rational.

After 2014 and 12-4, they got Hardy and drafted Gregory because they knew a pass rush was the necessary ingredient for the super bowl run.
That is 2 high-impact DLs, each with game-changing talent.
Before one dismisses Hardy as a 1-year gig, I would suggest it was an one-year evaluation - because they were talking extension when Hardy started out playing well.
If Romo and Gregory did not get hurt, the 2015 defense may have been very good. Hardy fell off the wagon when he basically lost in after offense imploded.

After 2015 and 4-12, no one can blame them for what they did.
It was not the right time to bring in high-impact free agents
Romo was still good, but no one thought he could last a season.
So they made do with mid-level FA DT in Thorton and a developmental player in Mayowa.
Both turned out to be decent for a rotation, but neither is a game changer.

Now after 2016 and 13-3 (easily could have been 14-2), the team has undergone a radical transformation.
This is far stronger than the 2014 team.
Dak and Zeke duo has taken over and the team is a serious contender.
If Jaylon comes back as a generational type player, the draft of 2016 can be argued as the best draft in history for any team (even the Steelers 4 HOF draft did not include a franchise QB)
The team is in need to defense makeover like what the Giants did - revamped DL + 1 DB.
Jones are not stupid and they know that.

Stephen should know there are 2 ways to go about a defense rebuild.
They can become prohibitive favorites for 3-4 years (do what the Giants did) by spending $200M for 3 top-tier FA defenders (assuming FAs are available).
Based on 5-year $25 million $15million average contracts, 3 FAs will cost $18 million for cap impact in year 1.
$31 million can be easily opened up by only redoing 4 contracts - TSmith, TFred, Dez and Lee.

The long-term consequences? The cap may or may not blow up around 2020 depending on overall cap strategy.
I am using MAY instead of MUST, because I have not done an in-depth 5-year analysis of the cap impact.
It may not even blow up because (as @FuzzyLumpkins pointed out 2018 contract totals) the 2018 salaries at ~$120 million including Romo but not Witten and Free (also does not include Martin 2nd contract).
That is a $60 mil or so cap space without any restructuring - and should still be at least $50 mil cap space if you include Witten and Free.
I have not tried to analyze that, but may be @bkight can comment on the 2018-2020 cap consequences.

The 2nd way to go is to get mid-level FA and draft/HOPE a 1st round DE will work out.
That seems to be irrational and a waste of opportunity.
Everyone knows a 1st round DL typically does not dominate in his 1st year, especially one in the late 1st round.
Furthermore, to count on the draft when free agency happens before the draft is ridiculous.
They have no idea who they will get in the draft when they are going are free agents.

Based on their 2014 signings, the Cowboys are not stupid and they know that their rotation-based DL will not cut it in the playoffs.
Green Bay showed that, and despite all the holding issues - it does not change the fact that a huge improvement is needed.
Especially with the way holding is called in the NFL, we need 2, not 1, DL that can demand double team.
So that is probably a DT like Poe and a DE like JPP.
Remember - after 2014 - Cowboys got HARDY AND GREGORY for the Nascar formation.

So the team has been diligently collecting its acorns and built the incredible foundation in Dak, Zeke, OL, Lee and perhaps Jaylon.
If 2016 off season is not the time to spend, I dont know when it is.

Finally, what if the cap blows up in 2021 - well we have a bad year - may be go 5-11.
I would argue that the 2 premium draft picks would be what we need to work with by reloading at RB/WR to go with Dak and the OL.
For those who thinks Dez will still be dominant in 2021 - how old would he be and when did Megatron retire?
For those who thinks Zeke would still be dominant - that would be nice, but how long do RBs typically last?

 

[xwalker]

The FO has been acting rationally.
Some have said they will never spend big money.
If they do not spend big money this year, they would not be rational.

After 2014 and 12-4, they got Hardy and drafted Gregory because they knew a pass rush was the necessary ingredient for the super bowl run.
That is 2 high-impact DLs, each with game-changing talent.
Before one dismisses Hardy as a 1-year gig, I would suggest it was an one-year evaluation - because they were talking extension when Hardy started out playing well.
If Romo and Gregory did not get hurt, the 2015 defense may have been very good. Hardy fell off the wagon when he basically lost in after offense imploded.

After 2015 and 4-12, no one can blame them for what they did.
It was not the right time to bring in high-impact free agents
Romo was still good, but no one thought he could last a season.
So they made do with mid-level FA DT in Thorton and a developmental player in Mayowa.
Both turned out to be decent for a rotation, but neither is a game changer.

Now after 2016 and 13-3 (easily could have been 14-2), the team has undergone a radical transformation.
Dak and Zeke duo has taken over and the team is a serious contender.
If Jaylon comes back as a generational type player, the draft of 2016 can be argued as the best draft in history for any team (even the Steelers 4 HOF draft did not include a franchise QB)
The team is in need to defense makeover like what the Giants did - revamped DL + 1 DB.
Jones are not stupid and they know that.

Stephen should know there are 2 ways to go about a defense rebuild.
They can become prohibitive favorites for 3-4 years (do what the Giants did) by spending $200M for 3 top-tier FA defenders (assuming FAs are available).
Based on 5-year $25 million $15million average contracts, 3 FAs will cost $18 million for cap impact in year 1.
$31 million can be easily opened up by redoing 4 contracts - TSmith, TFred, Dez and Lee.

The long-term consequences? The cap may or may not blow up around 2020 depending on overall cap strategy.
I am using MAY instead of MUST, because I have not done an in-depth 5-year analysis of the cap impact.
It may not even blow up because (as @FuzzyLumpkins pointed out) the 2018 salaries at ~$120 million including Romo but not Witten and Free (also does not include Martin 2nd contract).
That is a $60 mil or so cap space - and should still be at least $50 mil cap space if you include Witten and Free.
I have not tried to analyze that, but may be @bkight can comment on the 2018-2020 cap consequences.

The 2nd way to go is to get mid-level FA and draft/HOPE a 1st round DE will work out.
That seems to be irrational and a waste of opportunity.
Everyone knows a 1st round DL typically does not dominate in his 1st year, especially one in the late 1st round.
Furthermore, to count on the draft when free agency happens before the draft is ridiculous.
They have no idea who they will get in the draft when they are going are free agents.

Based on their 2014 signings, the Cowboys are not stupid and they know that their rotation-based DL will not cut it in the playoffs.
Green Bay showed that, and despite all the holding issues - it does not change the fact that a huge improvement is needed.
Especially with the way holding is called in the NFL, we need 2, not 1, DL that can demand double team.
So that is probably a DT like Poe and a DE like JPP.
Remember - after 2014 - Cowboys got HARDY AND GREGORY for the Nascar formation.

Finally, what if the cap blows up in 2021 - well we have a bad year - may be go 5-11.
I would argue that the 2 premium draft picks would be what we need to work with RB/WR to surround Dak and the OL with.
For those who thinks Dez will still be dominant - how old would he be and when did Megatron retire?
For those who thinks Zeke would still be dominant - that would be nice, but how long do RBs typically last?

The problem is a lack of available top tier talent in free agency this year. There is a good chance that players like Chandler Jones in AZ and Melvin Ingram in SD never make it to FA.

JPP would worry me. Yes he is still only 28, but he seems like a player that might have a big decline at some point. He will probably re-sign with the Giants anyway.

Poe is an interesting player. He is way bigger than any DT that Marinelli has had. I have not watched him this year, but he was very athletic when drafted. Stephen Jones has said they won't pay big money for a 1-tech so it seems unlikely they would sign Poe, or Hankins, or Bennie Logan.

Nick Fairly has interesting stats with 7 sacks and 22 QB hits but he is unlikely to fit the RKG mold.

 

[waldoputty]

The problem is a lack of available top tier talent in free agency this year. There is a good chance that players like Chandler Jones in AZ and Melvin Ingram in SD never make it to FA.

JPP would worry me. Yes he is still only 28, but he seems like a player that might have a big decline at some point. He will probably re-sign with the Giants anyway.

Poe is an interesting player. He is way bigger than any DT that Marinelli has had. I have not watched him this year, but he was very athletic when drafted. Stephen Jones has said they won't pay big money for a 1-tech so it seems unlikely they would sign Poe, or Hankins, or Bennie Logan.

Nick Fairly has interesting stats with 7 sacks and 22 QB hits but he is unlikely to fit the RKG mold.

We need 2 dominant DL.
2 dominant pass rushing DT may be almost as good as a dominant RDE and a dominant 3T.
May be they would not pay for a run stuffing 1Tech.
But you can easily use 2 pass rushing DT during passing downs.
Candidates include Poe, Fairly, Kawann Short.
Without a FA DE, I can see a DT rotation of Kawann, Poe, Collins and Thornton, with LDE of Irving/Crawford and RDE of Mayowa/Irving.
This would be a huge improvement.

With the 1st/2nd round picks, take BPA of RDE, pass rushing OLB and CB.
If Jaylon is healthy, Jaylon and Lee could be 2 great LB, but an additional pass rushing OLB give us the option to play 3-3-5 in a nickel where the pass rush would come from Jaylon and/or other OLB.

 

[xwalker]

We need 2 dominant DL.
2 dominant pass rushing DT may be almost as good as a dominant RDE and a dominant 3T.
May be they would not pay for a run stuffing 1Tech.
But you can easily use 2 pass rushing DT during passing downs.
Candidates include Poe, Fairly, Kawann Short.
Without a FA DE, I can see a DT rotation of Kawann, Poe, Collins and Thornton, with LDE of Irving/Crawford and RDE of Mayowa/Irving.
This would be a huge improvement.

With the 1st/2nd round picks, take BPA of RDE, pass rushing OLB and CB.
If Jaylon is healthy, Jaylon and Lee could be 2 great LB, but an additional pass rushing OLB give us the option to play 3-3-5 in a nickel where the pass rush would come from Jaylon and/or other OLB.

I would give it a zero percent chance that they sign both Short and Poe. Short has better pass rush numbers but that's because he is a 3-tech. Poe had interesting numbers for a 3-4 NT with 10 QB hits and 2 sacks. He had 6 sacks in 2014.

I think it's more likely they sign a mid-tier (cost wise) DE.
Nick Perry 26, 11 sacks
Mario Addison 29, 10 sacks
Lorenzo Alexander 33, 13 sacks
DeMarcus Ware 34, 4 sacks

Nick Perry is interesting. The Packers are less likely than other teams to retain free agents and I don't think Perry will break the bank. He had 11 sacks while being in 3 man rotation with Peppers and Clay Matthews at OLB in a 3-4. At 6-3, 265 he has 4-3 DE size.

Addison was a pass rush specialist this season having only started 1 game.

Alexander might be a product of the Bills having a good DL. He best sack total prior to coming to the Bills in 2016 was 2.5. At 6-1, 245 he would be a pass rush specialist in a 4-3.

I could see Jerry bring Ware back as a pass rush specialist if there is any chance that he will be healthy.

 

[DFWJC]

The future looks bright.
But they really, badly need to keep working on the D.
They will.

They were, again, so close to advancing to the NFC finals. The chances at home vs Atlanta were decent.
Pretty huge opportunity missed, but have to move forward.
Its going to happen eventually.

Given the playoff fields, how the teams were playing late in the season, and the home field or not...I rate the biggest blown opprtunites in this order...worst at the top

2016
2007
2014

Inches from advancing to final 4 in all three of those years.

Way overdue for the next step.
I think it happens in either 2017 or 2018

 

[waldoputty]

I would give it a zero percent chance that they sign both Short and Poe. Short has better pass rush numbers but that's because he is a 3-tech. Poe had interesting numbers for a 3-4 NT with 10 QB hits and 2 sacks. He had 6 sacks in 2014.

I think it's more likely they sign a mid-tier (cost wise) DE.
Nick Perry 26, 11 sacks
Mario Addison 29, 10 sacks
Lorenzo Alexander 33, 13 sacks
DeMarcus Ware 34, 4 sacks

Nick Perry is interesting. The Packers are less likely than other teams to retain free agents and I don't think Perry will break the bank. He had 11 sacks while being in 3 man rotation with Peppers and Clay Matthews at OLB in a 3-4. At 6-3, 265 he has 4-3 DE size.

Addison was a pass rush specialist this season having only started 1 game.

Alexander might be a product of the Bills having a good DL. He best sack total prior to coming to the Bills in 2016 was 2.5. At 6-1, 245 he would be a pass rush specialist in a 4-3.

I could see Jerry bring Ware back as a pass rush specialist if there is any chance that he will be healthy.

The point is that there are options.
The fact is we need more than 1 pass rusher.

If DE is not available, get help else where.
Nick Perry is close to a top FA to me.
Not sure who Addison and Alexander are - Alexanders had 13 sacks???

 

[waldoputty]

The future looks bright.
But they really, badly need to keep working on the D.
They will.

They were, again, so close to advancing to the NFC finals. The chances at home vs Atlanta were decent.
Pretty huge opportunity missed, but have to move forward.
Its going to happen eventually.

Given the playoff fields, how the teams were playing late in the season, and the home field or not...I rate the biggest blown opprtunites in this order...worst at the top

2016
2007
2014

Inches from advancing to final 4 in all three of those years.

Way overdue for the next step.
I think it happens in either 2017 or 2018

2016 was the worst because we had the game under our control in the last minute, despite everything that happened.
Then the idiotic spike that took away 1 of 3 downs.

 

[DFWJC]

2016 was the worst because we had the game under our control in the last minute, despite everything that happened.
Then the idiotic spike that took away 1 of 3 downs.

Yeah, I put it as the worst too.

 

[reddyuta]

I hope we go after top DE in FA but I am not holding my breath,we won't see improvement in the Defense just by hoping our Draft picks can play well.

 

[MarkP88]

JPP has had back issues in addition to his missing digits. I would definitely not give him big money.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

The problem is a lack of available top tier talent in free agency this year. There is a good chance that players like Chandler Jones in AZ and Melvin Ingram in SD never make it to FA.

JPP would worry me. Yes he is still only 28, but he seems like a player that might have a big decline at some point. He will probably re-sign with the Giants anyway.

Poe is an interesting player. He is way bigger than any DT that Marinelli has had. I have not watched him this year, but he was very athletic when drafted. Stephen Jones has said they won't pay big money for a 1-tech so it seems unlikely they would sign Poe, or Hankins, or Bennie Logan.

Nick Fairly has interesting stats with 7 sacks and 22 QB hits but he is unlikely to fit the RKG mold.

Star plays the 1T not Logan. I still don't think they sign him. Not a fan of JPP either.

 

[xwalker]

Star plays the 1T not Logan. I still don't think they sign him. Not a fan of JPP either.

Bennie Logan is with the Eagles.

Kawaan Short play 3-tech next to Star Lotulelei.

 

[waldoputty]

I hope we go after top DE in FA but I am not holding my breath,we won't see improvement in the Defense just by hoping our Draft picks can play well.

management must know that.
also during free agency, management cannot count on the draft because free agency comes first.
that is of course unless they trade into the top 10 spots.

 

[robjay04]

Bennie Logan would be a good addition. Chances are you're not going to get a premier DE. Premier DEs are far in betweeen.

Only six defensive ends had double digit sacks last season.

Keep adding to the supposed strength of our DL...the interior and it'll make the players on the outside better.

 

[waldoputty]

Bennie Logan would be a good addition. Chances are you're not going to get a premier DE. Premier DEs are far in betweeen.

Only six defensive ends had double digit sacks last season.

Keep adding to the supposed strength of our DL...the interior and it'll make the players on the outside better.

The criteria for DL additions should be if the DL will demand a double team.
We need 2 of these.
Irving showed some signs of this.
But hardly that is something we can count on.
Gregory could have been.
Hardy did, and his loss (in so many ways) really hurt the DL

 

[LocimusPrime]

The criteria for DL additions should be if the DL will demand a double team.
We need 2 of these.
Irving showed some signs of this.
But hardly that is something we can count on.
Gregory could have been.
Hardy did, and his loss (in so many ways) really hurt the DL

 

[LocimusPrime]

Just sign JPP, Eric Berry, and Addison and we are going to the Super Bowl.
That's it right there.....if we had those three against Greenbay, we would be playing this weekend. Easily!

 

[MileyDancer]

I agree. This is the year to go all in (or mostly in) in free agency. Depending on how the Romo situation sorts out, the fact Dak is cheap right now, and restructures, we should have more than enough money.

 

[waldoputty]

I agree. This is the year to go all in (or mostly in) in free agency. Depending on how the Romo situation sorts out, the fact Dak is cheap right now, and restructures, we should have more than enough money.

The funny thing is the proposed $200mil expenditure ($18mil year 1 cap hit) does not even require trading/restructuring Romo. $18mil is very manageable compared to the $30mil to $50mil cap space that can be created.

Also the 2018 contracts total ~$120mil including Romo (but not Free or Witten) - that is $60 mil below the cap. We could keep Romo as the backup and the cap is not even an issue without a restructure, trade etc.

 

[Don Corleone]

The irony is that neither the Packers nor the Falcons have a great defense, and yet they are playing this weekend while the Cowboys are at home watching.