The Hard Choice

Shake_Tiller

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NFL teams and their fans probably cringe most when this happens: The team is forced to fill a position with a totally unproven player. The decision to risk taking that route might be the most difficult teams face.

To be sure, it happens involuntarily, in most cases – an unexpected retirement, injury or suspension leaves a team without a proven option at a point when it is nearly impossible to correct the problem. Sometimes, such as in the case of the New York Giants, the surprising event turns out to be fortunate, the unproven player unexpectedly fills the position adequately, even better.

I look way back into Cowboys history, when the team started Cliff Harris, a rookie free agent, at safety. He became the greatest safety of his era. I recall when a free agent receiver named Drew Pearson filled a hole at wide receiver and had what ought to be, in my estimation, a Hall of Fame career. It’s astounding, in fact, that neither Harris nor Pearson has been voted to the Hall.

Of course, there are many other, more recent examples, but I like these. Oh yeah. I really, really like ’em.

The free agency era has changed thinking, among both teams and their fans. Since there is a method to fill a position with a proven player, there is pressure to do just that, as a backup plan, if nothing else. Need a weak safety? Sign Ken Hamlin. Need a guard? Sign Bigg Davis. Need a linebacker? Sign Akin Ayodele.

Compared to many teams, the Cowboys are relatively infrequent players in the free agency game. Yes, they participate, but thankfully, in the past few years, the drafts have been good enough, the forays into original free agency (undrafted college players) successful enough to fill most needs. As a result, some free agents have proven to be less than useful.

In many instances, a free agent signee is a stop-gap measure. The Cowboys didn’t add Vinny Testaverde or Jason Fabini, to name a couple, with the idea that they would be long-term solutions.

The danger inherent in having free agency available as a crutch – as insurance against the failure of younger players – is that some younger players are never given a good opportunity to prove themselves. Is the insurance policy worth that risk? Maybe so. It’s a worthwhile discussion.

There are times when it is fairly apparent that insurance is desirable. The Cowboys have few options at the bottom of their roster to provide depth at CB and RB. There isn’t a player on the bench who appears ready to fill either role.

There are times when the need for insurance – or flat-out help – is less apparent. The Cowboys like some of their young receivers. Might the addition of a marginally talented veteran blunt the development of those young players or prevent Dallas from finding out whether they can play? Possibly. Might it cause a potential star to get away? Possibly… but probably not.

For the most part, Dallas seems to be rather proficient at identifying talent on its roster. Serviceable players, decent players who have been the property of the Cowboys have been released or traded, then have become pretty good players elsewhere. But few of those players have proven to be better than the talent the Cowboys retained.

Still, there is something to be said for giving young talent a chance to emerge. I don’t know where the correct answer lies, but I think it’s worth discussion.

A caveat: Whether in the draft, a trade or in free agency, it’s always advisable to add a true difference maker, where possible. The odds of a young roster player becoming a Charles Haley, a Deion Sanders, or a Terrell Owens are infinitesimal. The odds that Stanback, say, will become a better player than Roy Williams are low indeed. If the price of a Roy Williams is acceptable – a Larry Fitzgerald, for that matter – a team probably shouldn’t worry much about how young roster players might be affected.

But signing, say, a D.J. Hackett might be counterproductive. It might prevent the team from giving a potentially better player a chance to develop.

What I’m asking is: What do you think?
 

Hostile

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There are things I like about Free Agency. My favorite thing about it might shock some people. I love it when it blows up in some team's face. I can't explain why, but it's just very funny to me to see a team spend a mint on a marginal player, expect a windfall, and go backwards instead of forwards.

A couple of my favorite examples are Tampa Bay signing Alvin Harper and Oakland signing Larry Brown. Now don't get me wrong, I really liked both of those players. But it was obvious to me that Harper was not a #1 guy and Larry Brown was just a mediocre CB.

One of the funniest of all time to me is how badly it worked out for the Eagles bringing in TO after the whole fiasco with San Francisco and Baltimore, and now how well he has worked out here. I can just imagine the bile in their throats. If he wins a Super Bowl in Dallas invest in alcohol stocks for the Philly area because there will be a long binge.

I am always a Draftnik. I prefer to build that way. As such I'd like for every season to analyze which Free Agents we will let hit the market, not sign other team's UFA's and focus instead on released players, so that we get Compensatory Draft Picks. That's like playing with House Money in my opinion. Those are the picks to roll the dice on. If you hit on 1 it's just pure bonus time.
 

Redball Express

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..you actually have several comments there that could be commented on..very good observations, though and well presented.

I guess if the question is..is it better to bring in a temporary solution player in place of drafting a rookie unknown or giving a known backup player the first shot at the roster spot..

..I'm not sure if that has a utilitarian answer.

If the team is still building and it's not really ready to contend for playoff positions, then you probably play the rookies and draft aggressively to hopefully get the players to mature at a similar pace so they give your team a chance to have a core of players that you can then add veterans to it to balance out the youth and support the core that is youth.

Maybe, you also are a little more patient with a backup and allow him some time to see if he can move in and start in place of a missing player under that scenario, too.

I mean look what happened when Fergie went down.

Enter backup and we have a higher performance level that we had before Fergie.

Then you take a guy like Reeves at CB. Enter backup and we immediately wish that Aaron Glenn was still on the roster and bemoan the HC for cutting him with the last cutdown.

I think that it's all really a crapshoot for the most part. Injuries can't be predicted and sometimes it's hard to know what position to insure and with whom to protect it with.

And each decision sets a cause in motion that affects other decisions which affects other decisions.

If as you said, a player goes down due to injury, suspension or other unexpected event like going to strip clubs and 'raining money" on the dance floor, thus getting yourself arrested.. and you are faced with the decisions about how to fix the gap in the roster.

At that point, I think you have to go back to what I said above and look at the timeline your team is on as to how you fix the problem..draft, FA or play the next guy and hope he blossoms.

If the team is competitive and the owner is looking at your contract, his revenues and his relatively empty trophy case when it happens, you probably pay thru the nose in FA or by trade to fix it immediately and get back on track.

If you don't see the owner darting his eyes at the above mentioned..then maybe you go with the backup or wait until next year and draft somebody to plug in and maintain your overall game plan to move the team along to match the prevailing expectations.

That's my best answer.

.:starspin ReDBALL ExPreSS.:starspin
 

jterrell

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Good players show up, stand out and do not get held back.

A guy may not be as highly coveted prior to showing up but once they do if they are good it shows. Whether you are talking Tony Romo or Jay Ratliff or even Cliff Harris. Coaches knew those guys could play right away. Romo needed time but the potential was there and the football guys were talking him up early on. Ratliff didn't have a set position but he was clearly a solid pass rushing DT from day 1.

If we have young guys on this roster that can play we will use them.

No matter who we sign at WR they have to be significantly better than the young guys to take their spots. If they are that much better then it is a good move to keep them.

WR is a deep position in virtually every draft based on raw potential because 6 foot-ish guys with good speed are not that rare. That's all you really need to make someone's WR prospect list. Not exactly like being a 6'2", 325 pound Nose Tackle who can move around a good bit.
 

Shake_Tiller

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Good points, all.

I still think one of the best indicators that an organization is its willingness to move on quickly after it makes an error. And yes, I agree that good players are -- for the most part -- identifiable from the beginning.

Good organizations, I think, also recognize quickly that a player isn't going to develop, isn't going to be what you need. I remember Jimmy Johnson mentioning that he once drafted a safety, feeling from what he had seen in college the guy could be a starter. By the first minicamp, he said, he knew the guy couldn't play. He didn't fool around. He cut him before the end of training camp, even though he had been a relatively early draft pick.

Teams get into trouble when they don't admit their errors and move on. Cut your losses.

This is related to why I'm never comfortable with the idea, "We have to take a (insert position, but in this case, CB) with our first pick." Yes, the bias should be heavily toward getting that player you need, but not if you're forcing... like a basketball player forcing a shot.

I also agree that particular team circumstances dictate, in part, what your risk aversion should be. If you are on the verge of a championship, you might not be willing to live with the idea of a player growing into his role. You need him to play well right now.

One advantage of gray hair... through many different sets of circumstances, under varying sets of rules, there has been a chance to see teams built in any number of ways, become successful using a number of methods. There isn't one formula.
 
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