TWOK11
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I'll lead it with this, and I've posted the data many times before but it's important to preface as it's the key to the thread: How well you run the ball has virtually no correlation with winning in the modern NFL. Games are decided almost entirely by three metrics, which are turnover margin, adjusted offensive passing efficiency and adjusted defensive passing efficiency. And statistically how well you run the ball has, again, essentially no correlation with how well you throw it. All that matters is that you TRY to run the ball. This is because only at the extremes of run/pass ratio tendencies does playaction stop working. The psychological impact of playaction is present whether you run it well or not as long as you try to run it. This has been looked at extensively and the numbers are overwhelming in support of this premise. It is a matter of statistical fact at this point.
Now all that being said, here is why the 49ers are so good on offense: They are committed to preserving a specific run/pass ratio and have garnered a reputation as such to the point that teams invest too many resources into stopping the run. The 49ers see more heavy boxes than any team in football because of this. And this, combined with a brilliant playcaller at the healm, is how they get you. The 49ers DO NOT care how many yards per carry they get, no matter what they say. They care only that you believe they care, because they understand how games are won. And once you start caring too much, they do what they really want to do which is throw the ball INCREDIBLY efficiently and explosively. It is impossible to consitently defend well designed play action in the modern NFL with more than 7 in the box against 21 personnel, and they know this.
Here's the key for any defense playing them, dont take the bait. The 49ers throw the ball just as well whether they run for 3.5 YPC or 7 YPC, and we've already established that how well you run doesnt impact the outcome much at all. When do the 49ers stop throwing the ball as well, and thus become less likely to win statisitically? WHEN YOU STOP DEVOTING EXTRA RESOURCES TO STOPPING THE RUN. That's right, how often defenses bring an extra man into the box (and that number varies based on the offense's personnel package) is what impacts their passing efficiency metrics.
Don't get sucked into their game. Let them run for 5-7 yards per carry if they can. No OC consistently demonstrates the commitment to run the ball to such a fault that they will beat you by this metric alone. And even if they do, the stats show that the length of your drives without explosive passing plays results in lots of self inflicted losses of possession and field goals due to turnovers, penalties and other mistakes (such as drops) and this limits the effectiveness of this plan.
So in summary, commit your resources to stopping the run sparingly. SF wants you to sell out to stop the run so they can do the things that actually beat you. The run itself, statistically speaking, wont beat you. It didnt last year (contrary to popular opinion).
Now all that being said, here is why the 49ers are so good on offense: They are committed to preserving a specific run/pass ratio and have garnered a reputation as such to the point that teams invest too many resources into stopping the run. The 49ers see more heavy boxes than any team in football because of this. And this, combined with a brilliant playcaller at the healm, is how they get you. The 49ers DO NOT care how many yards per carry they get, no matter what they say. They care only that you believe they care, because they understand how games are won. And once you start caring too much, they do what they really want to do which is throw the ball INCREDIBLY efficiently and explosively. It is impossible to consitently defend well designed play action in the modern NFL with more than 7 in the box against 21 personnel, and they know this.
Here's the key for any defense playing them, dont take the bait. The 49ers throw the ball just as well whether they run for 3.5 YPC or 7 YPC, and we've already established that how well you run doesnt impact the outcome much at all. When do the 49ers stop throwing the ball as well, and thus become less likely to win statisitically? WHEN YOU STOP DEVOTING EXTRA RESOURCES TO STOPPING THE RUN. That's right, how often defenses bring an extra man into the box (and that number varies based on the offense's personnel package) is what impacts their passing efficiency metrics.
Don't get sucked into their game. Let them run for 5-7 yards per carry if they can. No OC consistently demonstrates the commitment to run the ball to such a fault that they will beat you by this metric alone. And even if they do, the stats show that the length of your drives without explosive passing plays results in lots of self inflicted losses of possession and field goals due to turnovers, penalties and other mistakes (such as drops) and this limits the effectiveness of this plan.
So in summary, commit your resources to stopping the run sparingly. SF wants you to sell out to stop the run so they can do the things that actually beat you. The run itself, statistically speaking, wont beat you. It didnt last year (contrary to popular opinion).
