The Last 17 Years of the Top 17 Picks

[Nation]

http://img189.*************/img189/4559/screenshot20130423at121.png

Obviously no one draft is the same, but at the same time I think this gives us a good view of what NFL teams value versus what mock drafters predict them to value.

I used Pro Football Reference for the data and ran a pivot table.

There are some nits I have that impact the totals (DB's/OL not segmented for all years) and some granular issues like DeMarcus Ware being listed as an LB in his draft year, but this should at least paint the big picture. I'm certainly liking our chances of nabbing a quality offensive lineman at 18.

 

[Chuck 54]

Nice work...thanks for sharing. It's always nice to see data that verifies what everyone infers from experience.

 

[CashMan]

I like seeing the trend, the only modification, is the change of the CBA and the draft since it. Not having to pay a certain position, might change some of the trends. For instance, maybe more QBs will be taken(not saying this year) in the 1st rd, since teams do not have to shell out a ton on money?

 

[Nation]

I like seeing the trend, the only modification, is the change of the CBA and the draft since it. Not having to pay a certain position, might change some of the trends. For instance, maybe more QBs will be taken(not saying this year) in the 1st rd, since teams do not have to shell out a ton on money?

I think it's a fair point and something you see in the 2011-2012 drafts. In those two years 7 quarterbacks were taken in the first round. That is more than the four year period from 2008-2010 combined.

 

[CashMan]

I think it's a fair point and something you see in the 2011-2012 drafts. In those two years 7 quarterbacks were taken in the first round. That is more than the four year period from 2008-2010 combined.

I think that throws the draft off, teams reaching for QBs. So, I guess that is one of the negatives of paying rookies less money.

 

[jzcowboy]

Thank you Raiders for making sure a kicker was added to this list

 

[Sb or Bust]

Thank you Raiders for making sure a kicker was added to this list

 

[AllProRico]

A much better chance of Cooper and/or Warmack being there at #18 according to these numbers but then again Guards aren't really taken high anyway

 

[RastaRocket]

A much better chance of Cooper and/or Warmack being there at #18 according to these numbers but then again Guards aren't really taken high anyway

We should be able to have a shot at one of them would be my guess. I could see Jacksonville going Geno, then Philly taking Dion Jordan, which could push some tackles down (Fisher, Johnson). Plus there are plenty of other positions around that teams need more that typically go higher. I think the Lions/Browns will go for Milliner or DE. Raiders should go DL or Geno. Bills will probably get a QB or WR. I could see fisher dropping to the Cardinals leaving Floyd or Star for the next couple of teams. I'm mostly worried about the stretch of Tennessee, San Diego, and Miami. I could see San Francisco trading into that area of the draft eliminating one of them.

Of course, I am going to be completely wrong come Thursday; but I can see the guards dropping.

 

[Beats_By_Zeke]

Thank you Raiders for making sure a kicker was added to this list

they have had one of the best kickers in the league for 13 years now. Show me another first round pick who. Is still at the top of there game after 13 years. That isn't Peyton manning

 

[HoosierCowboy]

please, please, please hold true so that Cooper or Warmack are available -- or even a top tackle -- or the best kicker

 

[tko112204]

they have had one of the best kickers in the league for 13 years now. Show me another first round pick who. Is still at the top of there game after 13 years. That isn't Peyton manning

And the wisdom of that decision has shown up in all those Ws...

 

[Nation]

they have had one of the best kickers in the league for 13 years now. Show me another first round pick who. Is still at the top of there game after 13 years. That isn't Peyton manning

You're not getting it, it isn't just a matter of whether the player is great at their position. The draft (and the salary cap) is an exercise in allocating resources. The difference between a Hall of Fame kicker and a league-average kicker is smaller than any other position that 1st rounders have been spent on. Allocating a first round pick on less-valuable resources is foolish.

 

[Eddie]

Great table.

Makes me wonder.

But I'm not sure about the differentiation over C, G, OL, and T.

 

[RastaRocket]

The more I think about this table you can pretty much guarantee that all these mocks this year with the OL are outrageous. Right now many mocks have Joeckel, Fisher, Fluker, Johnson, Warmack, and Cooper all going in the top 17. There is only 1 year out of the last 17 where 2 O-Lineman went in the top 17?

The odds of all these guys being gone by then is insane, it will never happen.

 

[Nation]

Tried to clean some of this up for the past few years and get the positions right across the board (click to enlarge)
Mods feel free to change original subject/chart

http://img195.*************/img195/9733/screenshot20130423at527.png