The Marshmallow Problem and draft picks (hypothetical)

[Red Dragon]

Had a random off-season type of question that's been rolling around in my head a while, and since the Cowboys are going nowhere this season, we might as well talk like it's offseason already:

Many of you probably know the Marshmallow Experiment - a famous psychological test done decades ago. The test was: A psychologist gives kids a marshmallow but tells them not to eat it - saying, "If you can wait 15 minutes without eating it, I'll give you extra ones - but if you eat it now, one is all you get." The test is one of delayed gratification.

OK, so what does this have to do with football?

What I was musing was:

Suppose you are Cowboys GM, and it's draft day - and an NFL team offers you a never-heard-before deal: You can give them your 1st-round pick, and they'll give you SEVERAL 1st-round picks.......with a catch. Those first-round picks won't arrive until a decade later.

(So, for instance, you trade away your 2021 first-round pick in return for their first-round picks in 2030, 2031, 2032 and 2034.)

Deal or no deal? How many draft picks would they have to offer you, and how far into the future, would it have to be to be acceptable?

 

[ColoradoCowboy]

In this scenario, I am Jerry Jones and 78 years old. I laugh and say no.

If, however, I were running the Packers and I had a competitive team already, no owner, and nearly lifetime job security; I'd think seriously about it.

Of course the prevailing wisdom is that a pick next year is worth a round less this year. So next year's 1st is worth a second this year. With this in mind, you could only reasonably accept an offer for 3 or 4 years in the future to start collecting those picks.

 

[garyo1954]

No deal. I get another first next year. I may even be able to trade for an additional first.
Why wait 10 years?

 

[Rajveer]

I don't even like Marshmallows, so that experiment would have failed on me regardless. As far as football is concerned, I don't think any GM around the league takes a 1st a decade later. There are no guarantees what might happen tomorrow, injuries, early retirements, disgruntled players wanting to leave, you could end up needing help a lot sooner even if you have a strong core at the moment. Just look at what happened to our OL which was our strength not to long back.

 

[John813]

No GM would ever do that. Odds are they won't be around a decade later to make use of those extra picks and tbh I'm not sure you could even trade picks from a decade from now.

 

[Cowboysheelsreds053]

I slam down the phone in the scenario.

 

[fivetwos]

Wut

 

[CouchCoach]

Here's the fly in that ointment. No owner would allow any GM to make that deal not knowing if that person would even be around when that came to fruition. The only trade like that would be between CIC and DAL with incompetent GM's and owners.

 

[visionary]

Had a random off-season type of question that's been rolling around in my head a while, and since the Cowboys are going nowhere this season, we might as well talk like it's offseason already:

Many of you probably know the Marshmallow Experiment - a famous psychological test done decades ago. The test was: A psychologist gives kids a marshmallow but tells them not to eat it - saying, "If you can wait 15 minutes without eating it, I'll give you extra ones - but if you eat it now, one is all you get." The test is one of delayed gratification.

OK, so what does this have to do with football?

What I was musing was:

Suppose you are Cowboys GM, and it's draft day - and an NFL team offers you a never-heard-before deal: You can give them your 1st-round pick, and they'll give you SEVERAL 1st-round picks.......with a catch. Those first-round picks won't arrive until a decade later.

(So, for instance, you trade away your 2021 first-round pick in return for their first-round picks in 2030, 2031, 2032 and 2034.)

Deal or no deal? How many draft picks would they have to offer you, and how far into the future, would it have to be to be acceptable?

Did you also support Garrett?

Asking for context

 

[Cowboyny]

Had a random off-season type of question that's been rolling around in my head a while, and since the Cowboys are going nowhere this season, we might as well talk like it's offseason already:

Many of you probably know the Marshmallow Experiment - a famous psychological test done decades ago. The test was: A psychologist gives kids a marshmallow but tells them not to eat it - saying, "If you can wait 15 minutes without eating it, I'll give you extra ones - but if you eat it now, one is all you get." The test is one of delayed gratification.

OK, so what does this have to do with football?

What I was musing was:

Suppose you are Cowboys GM, and it's draft day - and an NFL team offers you a never-heard-before deal: You can give them your 1st-round pick, and they'll give you SEVERAL 1st-round picks.......with a catch. Those first-round picks won't arrive until a decade later.

(So, for instance, you trade away your 2021 first-round pick in return for their first-round picks in 2030, 2031, 2032 and 2034.)

Deal or no deal? How many draft picks would they have to offer you, and how far into the future, would it have to be to be acceptable?

1st rd picks are gold, even if they are future ones, it well worth the wait.

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

Yeah, this seems like a poor theoretical exercise here. While the premise is somewhat interesting, there are financial dynamics involved, there are players futures involved and there are long term plans that have already been set in motion, to an extent, that come into play. You can't really just decide to cut bait and tank for a decade, so to speak, in order to just acquire a single draft pick IMO.

 

[MonsterD]

If by several you mean like 6-7 first round picks of course you make the deal. A team SHOULD BE good enough to deal with a loss of 1 first round pick by reallocating resources. For instance free agents or trading your players and picks to get another 1st.

 

[blueblood70]

Had a random off-season type of question that's been rolling around in my head a while, and since the Cowboys are going nowhere this season, we might as well talk like it's offseason already:

Many of you probably know the Marshmallow Experiment - a famous psychological test done decades ago. The test was: A psychologist gives kids a marshmallow but tells them not to eat it - saying, "If you can wait 15 minutes without eating it, I'll give you extra ones - but if you eat it now, one is all you get." The test is one of delayed gratification.

OK, so what does this have to do with football?

What I was musing was:

Suppose you are Cowboys GM, and it's draft day - and an NFL team offers you a never-heard-before deal: You can give them your 1st-round pick, and they'll give you SEVERAL 1st-round picks.......with a catch. Those first-round picks won't arrive until a decade later.

(So, for instance, you trade away your 2021 first-round pick in return for their first-round picks in 2030, 2031, 2032 and 2034.)

Deal or no deal? How many draft picks would they have to offer you, and how far into the future, would it have to be to be acceptable?

Never thats never happened maybe if its the following year or year after so 2022- 2023 drafts and spread them out little, yes ill do that.. a decade is insane no teams would ever do that..

dont know what marshmallows have to do with this, is he some e music performer?

 

[Red Dragon]

If by several you mean like 6-7 first round picks of course you make the deal. A team SHOULD BE good enough to deal with a loss of 1 first round pick by reallocating resources. For instance free agents or trading your players and picks to get another 1st.

Yes, I'd definitely trade a first-rounder for 6 first-rounders a decade later. It would almost guarantee a dynasty.

 

[Cowboysheelsreds053]

When you are 78 years of age, you are not making that deal because the clock is ticking for you to even live to see 79. You Pray and hope you live longer but at that point it's like playing russian roulette.

 

[Shinaoi]

Of course I do it if we are talking four first round draft choices. Any day of the week.

 

[Red Dragon]

When you are 78 years of age, you are not making that deal because the clock is ticking for you to even live to see 79. You Pray and hope you live longer but at that point it's like playing russian roulette.

Sure, but my thread isn't about whether Jerry should do this deal, but rather, if you (CowboysZoners on this board) should. Each of us may be 30 or 50 years old.

 

[garyo1954]

Yeah, this seems like a poor theoretical exercise here. While the premise is somewhat interesting, there are financial dynamics involved, there are players futures involved and there are long term plans that have already been set in motion, to an extent, that come into play. You can't really just decide to cut bait and tank for a decade, so to speak, in order to just acquire a single draft pick IMO.

And the coaches futures too. Coaches would be checking their phone contacts to see if anyone is hiring.

 

[Cowboysheelsreds053]

Sure, but my thread isn't about whether Jerry should do this deal, but rather, if you (CowboysZoners on this board) should. Each of us may be 30 or 50 years old.

I see but would still say no. The only thing I would do even close to something like a decade later would be some type of Bobby Bonilla contract.

 

[xwalker]

Had a random off-season type of question that's been rolling around in my head a while, and since the Cowboys are going nowhere this season, we might as well talk like it's offseason already:

Many of you probably know the Marshmallow Experiment - a famous psychological test done decades ago. The test was: A psychologist gives kids a marshmallow but tells them not to eat it - saying, "If you can wait 15 minutes without eating it, I'll give you extra ones - but if you eat it now, one is all you get." The test is one of delayed gratification.

OK, so what does this have to do with football?

What I was musing was:

Suppose you are Cowboys GM, and it's draft day - and an NFL team offers you a never-heard-before deal: You can give them your 1st-round pick, and they'll give you SEVERAL 1st-round picks.......with a catch. Those first-round picks won't arrive until a decade later.

(So, for instance, you trade away your 2021 first-round pick in return for their first-round picks in 2030, 2031, 2032 and 2034.)

Deal or no deal? How many draft picks would they have to offer you, and how far into the future, would it have to be to be acceptable?

No chance of ever happening; therefore it is a waste of time to debate.

It would take so many picks to be worth it that the NFL wouldn't approve the trade.

Make it 3 years and you might have an interesting discussion.

Picks are generally valued at 1 round later a year into the future.

i.e. 2022 1st equal to 2021 2nd.

That means 2027 1st equals 2021 7th.