CFZ The NFL off-season usually tells us which teams are the more serious contenders

[Bobhaze]

It has often been said the last few years that NFL seasons can be both won or lost in the off-season.

In fact, is not uncommon in this modern NFL to see the teams that had great off-seasons be the ones in major contention for a Lombardi. Just look at the last several seasons- most of the conference champions and SB winners had extremely active off-seasons. These teams were both strategic and aggressive in their off-season moves and it translated into playoff wins.

Look at some of the teams that were consensus choices as having a great off-season:

• 2020- Tampa Bay, led by the strategic moves of GM Jason Licht signed FA Tom Brady (after releasing former #1 pick Jameis Winston), traded for TE Rob Gronkowski, franchise tagged LB Shaq Barrett, re-signed FA DL Ndamukong Suh, and drafted T Tristen Wirfs, among several other big moves. They went on to win the NFC Championship and SB 55.
• 2021- LA Rams- led by GM Les Snead, the rams were very aggressive in the 2021 off-season. They traded former #1 pick QB Jared Goff and draft picks for Det QB Matt Stafford, signed CB Jalen Ramsey (who they acquired in a trade in 2019) to a 5 year/100 mil deal, traded for Edge rusher Von Miller, and signed FA WR Odell Beckham during the season. And that’s just the big moves. The rams won the NFC championship and SB 56.
• 2022 Filly- Look I hate the eagles but their GM Howie Roseman led a very successfully aggressive off-season last spring. The eagles traded for WR AJ Brown, traded WR Jalen Reagor to the Vikings for 4th and 7th round picks, signed FA LB Hassan Reddick, traded for DB CJ Gardner-Johnson, and several other key moves. And they still have 4 picks in the top 100 in this year’s draft. The eagles won the NFC championship for the 2nd time in 5 years with two completely different built rosters.
• 2022 KC chiefs- the chiefs led by GM Brett Veach were aggressive again, despite Pat Mahomes’ big contract taking up so much cap space. They traded their #1 receiver Tyreek Hill, released S Tyrann Mathieu, signed FA WR JuJu Smith, acquired SB hero WR/PR Kadarius Toney in an Oct trade with the giants, and got great production late in season from 7th round RB Isaiah Pacheco. The chiefs won their 3rd AFC championship in 4 years and their second SB in 4 years.

Bottom Line- having a great off-season plan and executing it well is step one in putting your team in position to have a great season. What happens the next 2 months will tell us a ton about this team’s ability to compete for a championship in 2023.

 

[Beast_from_East]

It has often been said the last few years that NFL seasons can be both won or lost in the off-season.

In fact, is not uncommon in this modern NFL to see the teams that had great off-seasons be the ones in major contention for a Lombardi. Just look at the last several seasons- most of the conference champions and SB winners had extremely active off-seasons. These teams were both strategic and aggressive in their off-season moves and it translated into playoff wins.

Look at some of the teams that were consensus choices as having a great off-season:

• 2020- Tampa Bay, led by the strategic moves of GM Jason Licht signed FA Tom Brady (after releasing former #1 pick Jameis Winston), traded for TE Rob Gronkowski, franchise tagged LB Shaq Barrett, re-signed FA DL Ndamukong Suh, and drafted T Tristen Wirfs, among several other big moves. They went on to win the NFC Championship and SB 55.
• 2021- LA Rams- led by GM Les Snead, the rams were very aggressive in the 2021 off-season. They traded former #1 pick QB Jared Goff and draft picks for Det QB Matt Stafford, signed CB Jalen Ramsey (who they acquired in a trade in 2019) to a 5 year/100 mil deal, traded for Edge rusher Von Miller, and signed FA WR Odell Beckham during the season. And that’s just the big moves. The rams won the NFC championship and SB 56.
• 2022 Filly- Look I hate the eagles but their GM Howie Roseman led a very successfully aggressive off-season last spring. The eagles traded for WR AJ Brown, traded WR Jalen Reagor to the Vikings for 4th and 7th round picks, signed FA LB Hassan Reddick, traded for DB CJ Gardner-Johnson, and several other key moves. And they still have 4 picks in the top 100 in this year’s draft. The eagles won the NFC championship for the 2nd time in 5 years with two completely different built rosters.
• 2022 KC chiefs- the chiefs led by GM Brett Veach were aggressive again, despite Pat Mahomes’ big contract taking up so much cap space. They traded their #1 receiver Tyreek Hill, released S Tyrann Mathieu, signed FA WR JuJu Smith, acquired SB hero WR/PR Kadarius Toney in an Oct trade with the giants, and got great production late in season from 7th round RB Isaiah Pacheco. The chiefs won their 3rd AFC championship in 4 years and their second SB in 4 years.

Bottom Line- having a great off-season plan and executing it well is step one in putting your team in position to have a great season. What happens the next 2 months will tell us a ton about this team’s ability to compete for a championship in 2023.

Good points my friend...............unfortunately I dont see the Cowboys doing anything different this year as compared to most other years.

We probably kick the tires and sniff around guys like Bobby Wagnor and other free agents who could help us, then bow out of the running once the price gets above league min.

Only "splash" will be OBJ since Jerry seems to have a hard on for the dude. Over 30 and two ACL surgeries on the same knee has me skeptical he is anything close to what he was.

 

[JBS]

So we might as well not even tune in to 2023 season. We lost already.

I mean, most of us knew this already , but ….it still sucks

 

[T-RO]

[*]2022 KC chiefs- the chiefs led by GM Brett Veach were aggressive again, despite Pat Mahomes’ big contract taking up so much cap space. They traded their #1 receiver Tyreek Hill, released S Tyrann Mathieu, signed FA WR JuJu Smith, acquired SB hero WR/PR Kadarius Toney in an Oct trade with the giants, and got great production late in season from 7th round RB Isaiah Pacheco. The chiefs won their 3rd AFC championship in 4 years and their second SB in 4 years.

This not only doesn't support your point, it completely contradicts it.

Chiefs traded away their best receiver for future picks. They let their playmaker safety walk, rather than pay.

If anything it was a very soft reload for KC. Some in the media called it a little bit of a rebuilding year for them. They made budget-friendly signings and they focused heavy on the draft, which is exactly the formula you are criticizing.

 

[Bobhaze]

So we might as well not even tune in to 2023 season. We lost already.

I mean, most of us knew this already , but ….it still sucks

I still hope…I mean if there’s no hope there’s no fun at all. I keep thinking these guys will get tired of only winning wild card games every so often. “Their way” isn’t all bad, but it’s clearly not enough to win a SB.

 

[Bobhaze]

This not only doesn't support your point, it contradicts it.

Chiefs traded away their best receiver for future picks. They let their playmaker safety walk, rather than pay.

If anything it was a very soft reload. They made budget-friendly signings and they focused heavy on the draft, which is exactly the formula you are criticizing.

Sorry I completely disagree.

The chiefs did something you never see JJ do- part ways with a guy they drafted and loved when it was time to pay- Tyreek Hill. That would be like Jerry cutting Zeke or Cedee Lamb before their big payday. JJ never does that.

And the chiefs cut a very popular player in Tyrann Matthieu. That rarely happens here.

My point is the teams winning championships lately are certainly being more aggressive than we are. Hard to argue that we’ve been as active in the off-season as the last 3 SB winners.

 

[plasticman]

There are some great GM's out there. Almost all of them come in with a specific plan on how they ae going to succeed. They will hire this type of coach and adopt that system of acquiring talent and they will have a unique method of dealing with the salary cap.

Some of these guys have been collecting ideas for decades and finetuning them in the event that their careers went in a very successful direction.

I think the best GM's are the ones with the ability to visualize their plan to the degree that they know the best traits and skills they require of their players and coaches. Then they go get those guys. In veteran free agency they don't have to wait a few years for these traits to develop.in a player They are already there and the results are a matter of record. They may find a veteran that fits their plan perfectly.

The teams with these type of GM's are the ones that are unafraid when it comes to veteran free agency and making impactful, significant signings. They have all the confidence in the world because they have found their missing piece in their specific plan. Two seasons ago that was Stafford for the Rams. Last season it was A.J. Brown for the Eagles and McCafferty for the 49ers. It's like these guys were the final piece of their collection as far as their plan goes, They were the guys that completed their plan and they were ready to go deep

Jerry Jones doesn't even realize he is supposed to have a plan.

All that Jerry has ever done is take bits and pieces from other peoples' plans, never enough to get it right.

It's like being 90% finished with a huge puzzle. Then, along comes Jerry, who proceeds to shove all the wrong pieces in all the wrong places. It looks so bad that the 90% that was completed doesn't even matter.

That 10% in my example represents Jerry's participation in signing veteran free agents.

 

[T-RO]

Sorry I completely disagree.

The chiefs did something you never see JJ do- part ways with a guy they drafted and loved when it was time to pay- Tyreek Hill. That would be like Jerry cutting Zeke or Cedee Lamb before their big payday. JJ never does that.

And the chiefs cut a very popular player in Tyrann Matthieu. That rarely happens here.

My point is the teams winning championships lately are certainly being more aggressive than we are. Hard to argue that we’ve been as active in the off-season as the last 3 SB winners.

You are conflating "aggressive" and "making hard decisions"

The Chiefs were the opposite of aggressive in terms of the short term. They willingly lost their best playmaker and a key safety! They absolutely weren't making short term decisions to "load up" like the Rams did. They kept their powder dry AND won a Super Bowl, in large part because their draft class was one for the ages, with numerous immediate contributors. That plus their future HOF QB, TE and Head coach.

Your recurring theme this offseason is that the Cowboys should go "all in". Chiefs emphatically didn't do that.

 

[Jake]

Jones boys will do what they do - pay the guys they drafted out of validation/emotional attachment - win enough games to be relevant - then flame out when it matters.

How many times does this have to happen until some put down the Cowboys crack pipe and accept that this is what our favorite team has become?

"Yeah, but it if we do this and do that..."

These are the two clowns you are counting on - look at them. Do they look like masterminds who are going to outsmart the rest of the NFL after almost 30 years of trying?

 

[cowboys5xsbs]

For every Philly and KC there is a Buffalo and San Francisco

 

[T-RO]

Jerry Jones doesn't even realize he is supposed to have a plan.

I dislike the front office just as much as everyone else around here (they even pushed me to start adopting other favorite teams!)

But it's flat silly to act like they aren't doing a number of things right. And of course they absolutely do have a plan.

I'll set aside my normal Jones-hate and note some smart things in their plan:
1. They stay on good terms with their players.
2. Emphasize the draft and generally draft pretty well
3. They are particularly clever about acquiring comp picks in the draft. They are among league leaders in stacking these up.

Let's drill down on #3, loading up extra picks:
2023: 3 extra picks (169, 176 and 212)
2022: 2 comp picks (176, 178)
2021: 4 comp picks!

And guess what...they are poised to load up on those again in 2024.

 

[T-RO]

Another thing that showed some fox-guile from the front office last year?

They announced their opening roster with only 1 QB, stashing 2 backups on the practice squad. This allowed them to do final scouting of available players, try to work some final trades for borderline roster guys. They rightly knew there was no league appetite for Cooper Rush and Will Grier.

There are too many blindspots and obsessions in Dallas FO for them to be a top five team. But most years they are a top 10-12 team, so let's acknowledge they are doing some things right.

 

[Beast_from_East]

Another thing that showed some fox-guile from the front office last year?

They announced their opening roster with only 1 QB, stashing 2 backups on the practice squad. This allowed them to do final scouting of available players, try to work some final trades for borderline roster guys. They rightly knew there was no league appetite for Cooper Rush and Will Grier.

There are too many blindspots and obsessions in Dallas FO for them to be a top five team. But most years they are a top 10-12 team, so let's acknowledge they are doing some things right.

Nobody has said they do nothing right, the problem is they just dont do enough.

With the way this team operates they have shown that the Divisional round is their ceiling, that is the cold hard truth and its been this way for 27 years.

Now as the saying goes, if you want to accomplish something you have never accomplished before, you must do something you have never done before. This applies to life in general, not just football. Otherwise, if you keep doing the same thing over and over again and expect different results..........well, you know what that is.

 

[T-RO]

they have shown that the Divisional round is their ceiling, that is the cold hard truth and its been this way for 27 years.

Agree.

if you keep doing the same thing over and over again and expect different results..........well, you know what that is.

And that brings up a question for fans: when will you stop doing the same thing over and over again? I'm an older guy but worked up a fresh plan which I've previously articulated. This includes focusing on enjoying the regular season and adopting other teams to root for. I see 98% of fans here absolutely locked in on repeating the same miserable and failed plan with perpetual whining. Rinse. Repeat. Year after year.

Yes: that's insanity.

Be willing to change bros, or be just as insane as Jerry.

 

[birdwells1]

I dislike the front office just as much as everyone else around here (they even pushed me to start adopting other favorite teams!)

But it's flat silly to act like they aren't doing a number of things right. And of course they absolutely do have a plan.

I'll set aside my normal Jones-hate and note some smart things in their plan:
1. They stay on good terms with their players.
2. Emphasize the draft and generally draft pretty well
3. They are particularly clever about acquiring comp picks in the draft. They are among league leaders in stacking these up.

Let's drill down on #3, loading up extra picks:
2023: 3 extra picks (169, 176 and 212)
2022: 2 comp picks (176, 178)
2021: 4 comp picks!

And guess what...they are poised to load up on those again in 2024.

1.They throw every player home grown player under the bus when it's time to resign them. Lawrence, Dak, Zeke and Dez

2. I will give you that WILL McCLAY does a masterful job with the draft but name a team that has won the Super Bowl with the "Draft Only" plan?

3. Comp pick don't get you to the NFCCG, players do so they need to trade those picks for proven players.

 

[birdwells1]

Another thing that showed some fox-guile from the front office last year?

They announced their opening roster with only 1 QB, stashing 2 backups on the practice squad. This allowed them to do final scouting of available players, try to work some final trades for borderline roster guys. They rightly knew there was no league appetite for Cooper Rush and Will Grier.

There are too many blindspots and obsessions in Dallas FO for them to be a top five team. But most years they are a top 10-12 team, so let's acknowledge they are doing some things right.

What's the goal?

 

[birdwells1]

Agree.


And that brings up a question for fans: when will you stop doing the same thing over and over again? I'm an older guy but worked up a fresh plan which I've previously articulated. This includes focusing on enjoying the regular season and adopting other teams to root for. I see 98% of fans here absolutely locked in on repeating the same miserable and failed plan with perpetual whining. Rinse. Repeat. Year after year.

Yes: that's insanity.

Be willing to change bros, or be just as insane as Jerry.

Man you have given up, you have lowered your expectations to goals that the Cowboys can reach so you won't be disappointed, it's a defense mechanism. I've been rooting for this team so long I couldn't imagine "adopting" another team, that's crazy talk.

 

[T-RO]

birdwells1

- Sports is a very silly past-time. Only purpose is meaningless entertainment.
- If you want meaning look for it in philosophy, religion, relationship, art, practical contribution to a neighbor, whatever. Maybe we should all think more about that.
- Players aren't loyal to a team. Owners happily relocate teams for money. Why are you so locked into absurd fan "loyalty"? Does Jerry care about you? Do the players?

Loyalty isn't for some stupid meaningless sports team. Loyalty is for values. For truth. For cherished family and friends. For building society. Maybe for something transcendent. For football? You gotta be kidding.

Sports has become religion for many. Sad but true.

As for pastime: If you don't enjoy a sport, pick another. If you don't like a team...make a plan for something you do enjoy. A different team? A combination of teams? Whatever.

 

[DandyDon52]

Jerry Jones doesn't even realize he is supposed to have a plan.

Jerry's plan is to patch the holes in the boat as he cruises along.
Bail water and patch the holes, it will be ok.
If his team gets in the playoffs, he really thinks they can go to SB because they got in !
half the NFC gets in each year, and many are weak teams that have no chance at SB.
Dallas is usually eliminated by teams that lose the champ game, GB 2 times, SF 2 times, Rams 1 time.
That says none of those dallas teams were ready for a SB run due to one thing or another, HC's, FO (jones boys) QB play, rest of team
no one really steps up.

 

[Flamma]

Sorry I completely disagree.

The chiefs did something you never see JJ do- part ways with a guy they drafted and loved when it was time to pay- Tyreek Hill. That would be like Jerry cutting Zeke or Cedee Lamb before their big payday. JJ never does that.

And the chiefs cut a very popular player in Tyrann Matthieu. That rarely happens here.

My point is the teams winning championships lately are certainly being more aggressive than we are. Hard to argue that we’ve been as active in the off-season as the last 3 SB winners.

Not only that, but having Mahomes is a game changer. With QBs like that, you can play it safe and still be a serious contender.

You're right about what you say that rarely happens here. The Jones boys don't do that. The one time Dallas did do that, was the Walker trade.