The NFL's Numbers Game

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The NFL's Numbers Game
What we can learn about the 2013 season by breaking down the pastBy Bill Barnwell on July 3, 2013

Better than one out of every four teams that finishes 6-10 makes the playoffs the following year. That staggering-but-true statistic came up last year, when I went looking for the tell-tale signs of an unlikely leap and mentioned how I would be immediately drug-tested for predicting that the likes of the Colts, Commanders, or Vikings would make the playoffs.1 Winning is everything, but when it comes to figuring out how NFL teams will perform in the future, their win-loss record really doesn't offer as much insight as it might seem.

Research into baseball and basketball found that other statistical indicators were better and/or excellent supplementary predictors of future win-loss record, and football is no exception. Although advanced metrics for football are in their relative infancy and will never be able to match the predictive power that comes with the much larger sample size of baseball- and basketball-size seasons, there are a few metrics that often come up in this space as further insight into a team's performance. Let's take a look at what they have to say about the 2012 season and the NFL slate to come in 2013.

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http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/9441252/bill-barnwell-breaks-2012-numbers-get-feel-2013
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I think this is a good read and puts some numbers on a couple of things intuitive IMO but not that I've seen quantified. It also explains why some teams make big leaps and plunges. I can't search right now but a couple of members put some of this up before and I'd like to compliment them. Hopefully they will add some to the thread.