CFZ The obvious stat that shows key to Cowboys winning Sun in SF

[Bobhaze]

STOP THE RUN. I know that’s obvious but let me be more specific.

Going all the way back to 2021, the last 11 games where the Cowboys have given up 125 yards or more rushing, 10 of those games are losses. In every single regular season loss the Cowboys had last year, we got gashed in the run game.

Here are the games in order they happened:

1. Nov, 2021- L 30-16 vs Broncos. Gave 190 yards rushing.
2. Nov. 2021- L 19-9 vs chiefs. Gave up 126 yards rushing.
3. Nov 2021- L 36-33 in OT vs raiders. Gave up 143 yards rushing.
4. Dec, 2021- L 25-22 vs cards. Gave up 127 yards rushing.
5. Jan. 2022- L 23-17 vs 49ers in WC playoff game. Gave up 169 yards.
6. Sept. 2022- L 19-3 vs Bucs in season opener. Gave up 152 yards rushing.
7. Oct. 2022- L 26-17 vs egirls. Gave up 136 yards rushing.
8. Nov. 2022- L 31-28 vs. Packers. Gave up 207 yards rushing.
9. Dec. 2022- L 40-34 in OT vs Jags. Gave up 145 yds rushing.
10. *Jan. 2023- L 19-12 in Div Playoff game vs SF. Gave up 113 yards.*
11. Sept, 2023- L 28-16 vs cards. Gave up 222 yards rushing.

** Only in the playoff loss last year in SF did we give up less than 125 yards rushing and still lose.
So 10 of the last 11 losses we were gashed in the defensive running game.

Seems pretty obvious. Stop the run Sun in SF and we have a great chance to win.

 

[Denim Chicken]

Going all the way back to 2021, the last 11 games where the Cowboys have given up 125 yards or more rushing, 10 of those games are losses.

That's one of those stats, though, that can be a bit misleading.

If you get behind early your opponent is going to run to run out the clock. The run defense is some of these cases is not the prime reason you lost.

 

[Mac_MaloneV1]

Volume rush yards doesn't mean anything.

More realistically, inefficiencies in the passing game - namely, turnovers - is the key factor. It's not close, really.

 

[Hawkeye0202]

What's interesting about this is where was the offense. I know each game is affected by different elements but are we to believe our offense almost never bails out the D having a bad day?

 

[Bobhaze]

Volume rush yards doesn't mean anything.

More realistically, inefficiencies in the passing game - namely, turnovers - is the key factor. It's not close, really.

Well it’s a given if you turn the ball over, everything else is moot. That’s also obvious.

 

[BleedSilverandBlue]

That's one of those stats, though, that can be a bit misleading.

If you get behind early your opponent is going to run to run out the clock. The run defense is some of these cases is not the prime reason you lost.

Exactly. Oftentimes these rushing yards come far after the game has already been decided. They really aren't a cause as much as they are an effect.

To actually lose a game due to an opposing team's rushing attack, you have to give up something like 200+ for 4.5+ ypc. It definitely can happen, but it is extremely rare.

Prime example of this situation: The Cardinals game last week.

 

[Bobhaze]

What's interesting about this is where was the offense. I know each game is affected by different elements but are we to believe our offense almost never bails out the D having a bad day?

That’s a good point that all teams must be able to do- bail out one side of the ball that is not performing well. Our offense had that chance against the cards and didn’t do it. At various points in a season, one part of the team has to make for the other.

 

[CowboyRoy]

That's one of those stats, though, that can be a bit misleading.

If you get behind early your opponent is going to run to run out the clock. The run defense is some of these cases is not the prime reason you lost.

IN how many? Its usually the main reason. NO one said it was the main reason in every one.

I know many like to blame the same guy for every loss.

 

[JD_KaPow]

What's interesting about this is where was the offense. I know each game is affected by different elements but are we to believe our offense almost never bails out the D having a bad day?

This is a list of losses, so by definition, nobody bailed out anybody on those days.

The offense took over the second Eagles game last year, as one counterexample.

 

[Bobhaze]

Exactly. Oftentimes these rushing yards come far after the game has already been decided. They really aren't a cause as much as they are an effect.

To actually lose a game due to an opposing team's rushing attack, you have to give up something like 200+ for 4.5+ ypc. It definitely can happen, but it is extremely rare.

Prime example of this situation: The Cardinals game last week.

That wasn’t the case in most of the examples I gave in the OP.

We lost the GB game last year after being ahead but we could not stop their running game. Same for the Jags game last year. We were ahead but they kept getting big runs (and passes too) The Tampa game to start the season last year. Their running game buried us. The broncos game in 2021- their running game made them up 30-0. The niners win in 2021 wild card game. They killed us all day with the running game.

I understand what you’re saying but in almost every game we’ve been losing, it’s because of the inability to stop the running game.

 

[VaqueroTD]

Don’t let the run game start off strong in the first quarter and allow them to jump to an early lead, where they can control the offensive formations and blocking better against our defense. Kiss of death for our defense. Arizona executed it pretty well. Not looking good for us against the 49ers based on last history and the ARZ-SF game last week.

 

[Hawkeye0202]

Volume rush yards doesn't mean anything.

More realistically, inefficiencies in the passing game - namely, turnovers - is the key factor. It's not close, really.

Agree with this 100%.......but will also add scoring. In fact, as stated in quite a few threads Belichick once said he really cared about 2 stats ( turnovers and scoring ).

 

[Hawkeye0202]

only been the last 2 years that the defense was actually good enough to win us some games.

This is true.......good point

 

[acr731]

That's one of those stats, though, that can be a bit misleading.

If you get behind early your opponent is going to run to run out the clock. The run defense is some of these cases is not the prime reason you lost.

Depending who you talk to, aside from the o'line the offense is never given any blame in losses.

 

[shabazz]

STOP THE RUN. I know that’s obvious but let me be more specific.

Going all the way back to 2021, the last 11 games where the Cowboys have given up 125 yards or more rushing, 10 of those games are losses. In every single regular season loss the Cowboys had last year, we got gashed in the run game.

Here are the games in order they happened:

1. Nov, 2021- L 30-16 vs Broncos. Gave 190 yards rushing.
2. Nov. 2021- L 19-9 vs chiefs. Gave up 126 yards rushing.
3. Nov 2021- L 36-33 in OT vs raiders. Gave up 143 yards rushing.
4. Dec, 2021- L 25-22 vs cards. Gave up 127 yards rushing.
5. Jan. 2022- L 23-17 vs 49ers in WC playoff game. Gave up 169 yards.
6. Sept. 2022- L 19-3 vs Bucs in season opener. Gave up 152 yards rushing.
7. Oct. 2022- L 26-17 vs egirls. Gave up 136 yards rushing.
8. Nov. 2022- L 31-28 vs. Packers. Gave up 207 yards rushing.
9. Dec. 2022- L 40-34 in OT vs Jags. Gave up 145 yds rushing.
10. *Jan. 2023- L 19-12 in Div Playoff game vs SF. Gave up 113 yards.*
11. Sept, 2023- L 28-16 vs cards. Gave up 222 yards rushing.

** Only in the playoff loss last year in SF did we give up less than 125 yards rushing and still lose.
So 10 of the last 11 losses we were gashed in the defensive running game.

Seems pretty obvious. Stop the run Sun in SF and we have a great chance to win.

The Patriots offensive line was overmatched so it went our way……….if we can just the Niners offensive line to cooperate.

 

[Mac_MaloneV1]

This list is also wrong. Going back to the beginning of 2021:

2021:
@NOR, 153 rushing yards
@PHI, 149 rushing yards
@NYG: 124 rushing yards
@NE, 120 rushing yards

2022:
CHI, 240 rushing yards
@NYG, 167 rushing yards
WAS, 142 rushing yards

Those are all wins lol. Just a lot of data missing from this overall conclusion. They're 8-10 in their last 18 games giving up 113 or more yards.

 

[Bobhaze]

This list is also wrong. Going back to the beginning of 2021:

2021:
@NOR, 153 rushing yards
@PHI, 149 rushing yards
@NYG: 124 rushing yards
@NE, 120 rushing yards

2022:
CHI, 240 rushing yards
@NYG, 167 rushing yards
WAS, 142 rushing yards

Those are all wins lol. Just a lot of data missing from this overall conclusion. They're 8-10 in their last 18 games giving up 113 or more yards.

Isn't that just more evidence of this team needing to stop the run? Yes, the examples you added we won- in other words the offense overcame those huge yardage amounts we gave up in the run game by helping us win anyway. That’s not a formula for consistent winning.

If you’re comfortable saying giving up big yardage in the run game isn’t a factor in losing, ok man.

 

[75boyz]

STOP THE RUN. I know that’s obvious but let me be more specific.

Going all the way back to 2021, the last 11 games where the Cowboys have given up 125 yards or more rushing, 10 of those games are losses. In every single regular season loss the Cowboys had last year, we got gashed in the run game.

Here are the games in order they happened:

1. Nov, 2021- L 30-16 vs Broncos. Gave 190 yards rushing.
2. Nov. 2021- L 19-9 vs chiefs. Gave up 126 yards rushing.
3. Nov 2021- L 36-33 in OT vs raiders. Gave up 143 yards rushing.
4. Dec, 2021- L 25-22 vs cards. Gave up 127 yards rushing.
5. Jan. 2022- L 23-17 vs 49ers in WC playoff game. Gave up 169 yards.
6. Sept. 2022- L 19-3 vs Bucs in season opener. Gave up 152 yards rushing.
7. Oct. 2022- L 26-17 vs egirls. Gave up 136 yards rushing.
8. Nov. 2022- L 31-28 vs. Packers. Gave up 207 yards rushing.
9. Dec. 2022- L 40-34 in OT vs Jags. Gave up 145 yds rushing.
10. *Jan. 2023- L 19-12 in Div Playoff game vs SF. Gave up 113 yards.*
11. Sept, 2023- L 28-16 vs cards. Gave up 222 yards rushing.

** Only in the playoff loss last year in SF did we give up less than 125 yards rushing and still lose.
So 10 of the last 11 losses we were gashed in the defensive running game.

Seems pretty obvious. Stop the run Sun in SF and we have a great chance to win.

On the contrary the last time these 2 teams met, this defense totally shut down the run and they still lost based off offensive ineptitude.

That playoff run defense limited the SF run offense to 32 carries for 113 yards at a measley 3.5 ypc clip.
McCaffrey did nothing. 10 for 35. A long of 8
His back up Elijah Mitchell was 14 for 51.
Deebo out of the backfield?
4 for 11.
The defense more than did its job and definitely "played well enough to win".
I think Quinn will have this group ready again imo.

Now, with that being said, and I agree about run defense and it contributed to the Cards loss, but sooner or later the offense needs to uphold its end of team success.

The dee is presently doing and did its job the last time these 2 met.

Mac and Dak are the ones that need to win this game to me.

jmo

 

[BleedSilverandBlue]

That wasn’t the case in most of the examples I gave in the OP.

We lost the GB game last year after being ahead but we could not stop their running game. Same for the Jags game last year. We were ahead but they kept getting big runs (and passes too) The Tampa game to start the season last year. Their running game buried us. The broncos game in 2021- their running game made them up 30-0. The niners win in 2021 wild card game. They killed us all day with the running game.

I understand what you’re saying but in almost every game we’ve been losing, it’s because of the inability to stop the running game.

I would actually say both the GB game and Jags game were lost due to our inability to get a stop against their passing games or score again ourselves. I mean, didn't Christian Watson hit 3 homerun TDs against us while our offense stalled for nearly an entire half? Against Jacksonville Trevor Lawrence slung the ball all over the place on us while we sat on a huge lead. You don't make big comebacks running the ball, and our opponents didn't in those cases either.

Either way, I agree that making SF 1-dimensional will be crucial. Brock Purdy most of the time is only going to tear you up if you are forced to play man with a loaded box. If you get beat by SF's passing game, so be it, but you cannot let CMC run absolutely wild on you.

 

[75boyz]

Isn't that just more evidence of this team needing to stop the run? Yes, the examples you added we won- in other words the offense overcame those huge yardage amounts we gave up in the run game by helping us win anyway. That’s not a formula for consistent winning.

If you’re comfortable saying giving up big yardage in the run game isn’t a factor in losing, ok man.

KSK and I briefly touched on this with him emphasizing the impact of rush defense.
My counter, as in the Cards game, was 1 for 5 in the red zone makes points scored as trumps to rush yards given up.
I'm okay with lesser run defense if this offense is backing up all their between the 20s drives with TDs and not FGs.
Just my opinion though.