Hostile
The Duke
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Let's start with the AFC.
As of right now, the Houston Texans, by virtue of a victory over the Denver Broncos are the 1 seed and the Broncos are the 2 seed. The only way the Broncos can take the 1 seed is for them to win and the Texans to lose next week. Denver will beat the Kansas City Chiefs. The question is will the Indianapolis Colts beat the Texans?
If Denver were to lose and the New England Patriots were to win, the Patriots, by virtue of a head to head win over the Broncos (their last loss btw), would become the 2 seed over the Broncos. If both the Texans and the Broncos lost and the Patriots defeated the Miami Dolphins the Patriots would actually be the 1 seed.
The battle for the AFC bye weeks is entirely on those 3 teams. 2 of the 3 will earn byes the other goes to the Wildcard round.
The Baltimore Ravens can win the 3 seed if they win against the Bengals and the Patriots lose to the Dolphins because they won the head to head matchup.
The wildcard teams are usually the trickiest part. However, in the AFC the final 2 teams are already the Indianapolis Colts at the 5 seed, and the Cincinnati Bengals at the 6 seed. If the Colts lose and the Bengals win they would be tied in the AFC (did not play head to head). That moves the tie breaker to common games, minimum of 4.
Their common opponents are Jacksonville, Cleveland, Miami, and Kansas City. The Bengals are 3-2 against these foes. The Colts are 4-1. So no matter what the Colts have the 5th seed by virtue of the tie breaker.
So in the AFC the 5 and 6 seeds are etched in stone. All that is left if to determine who has the bye, and if the Ravens can move from the 4 seed to the 3 seed. Currently as mentioned Texans are 1, Broncos are 2, and Patriots are 3.
As it stand right now the Patriots would host the Bengals and the Ravens would host the Colts in the Wildcard Round.
On to the NFC.
The Atlanta Falcons have the 1 seed wrapped up. They can tank to their heart's content next week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and it won't matter. They are entrenched.
Currently the Packers are the 2 seed. If they lose to the Minnesota Vikings and the San Francisco 49ers defeat the Arizona Cardinals, the 49ers would be the 2 seed and the Packers would be the 3 seed.
The 4 seed is going to be the winner of the matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and the Washington Commanders.
Now is where things get a little tricky. If you have coffee, get a good drink.
If The Seattle Seahawks defeat the St. Louis Rams and the 49ers lose to the Cardinals, the Seahawks would win the NFC West and be the 3 seed. As of right now, they are the 5 seed. The Seahawks played the NFC North. This means they played the Bears and the Vikings. They defeated both of those teams, so even if the Seahawks lose, they cannot be the 6 seed. They are either the 5 seed, or the as the NFC West Champion the 3 seed.
So, on to the 6 seed. As of right now the Vikings own that spot by virtue of a better NFC North division record. For the Bears to make the playoffs they have to win against the Lions and the Vikings have to lose.
If both of those teams lose it opens the door to the New York Giants to sneak in as the 6 seed. They of course have to defeat the Philadelphia Eagles, or it is all over for the defending champs. Both the Bears and Vikings have to lose, and the Commanders have to beat the Cowboys.
So let's say the Commanders do win and the Bears, Vikings, and Cowboys all lose. Dallas would be out at 8-8. This leaves the Bears, Vikings, and Giants all at 9-7. The Giants played neither team. The tie breaker goes to the NFC games. The Bears and Vikings would both be 6-6 against the NFC while the Giants would be 8-4. Therefore the Giants could still sneak in as the 6 seed.
So, that only leaves one question. If the Cowboys win, can the Commanders be the 6 seed? At 9-7 the Commanders would have to have the Bears and Vikings both lose otherwise one of them would be 10-6. If the Giants were to win, that would put all four teams at 9-7.
Let's do the easy 3 team tie breaker first. The Giants lose. The Commanders, Bears, and Vikings are all 9-7. The Commanders beat the Vikings but did not play the Bears. So head to head to head is out the window. So once again we move to NFC Games. The Commanders would be 7-5. The Bears and Vikings would both be 6-6. That means in a 3 way tie the Commanders would get in.
Now, if the Giants were also to be 9-7 for the 4 way tie, it starts once again at NFC. The Giants would also be 7-5 against the NFC. But they lose the tie breaker to the Commanders on NFC East. So, if the Cowboys win, no matter what the Giants do they are eliminated.
If your head hurts after all of that I suggest a long shower and a nap. It's Christmas Eve after all. Good day to be a little lazy.
Merry Christmas and Go Cowboys.
