The Top-10 NFL Draft prospects this year according to NFL’s Next Gen Stats prospect grades:

[Sydla]

I am weary of combine warriors with no real stats at positions like DE, WR, TE, etc.

Musgrave seems to be quite the athlete but has little to no production. Every year you get a couple of fast risers who rock the combine. He seems more like a guy you take a flier on later than using a 1st round pick. The Cowboys need their first round picks to be immediate contributors.

 

[beware_d-ware]

I am weary of combine warriors with no real stats at positions like DE, WR, TE, etc.

Musgrave seems to be quite the athlete but has little to no production. Every year you get a couple of fast risers who rock the combine. He seems more like a guy you take a flier on later than using a 1st round pick. The Cowboys need their first round picks to be immediate contributors.

TEs are never immediate contributors. Schultz had 577 yards last year... only 4 rookie TEs have had more than that this century.

 

[Sydla]

TEs are never immediate contributors. Schultz had 577 yards last year... only 4 rookie TEs have had more than that this century.

Hence why I am not a fan of taking a TE in the first round, regardless of how much of a combine freak he is.

With the way Dallas uses FA to just fill depth holes and try to get cheap starters, the Cowboys don't have the luxury of their first round pick being a 2-3 year project. They need their first rounders to play from the start and make a contribution.

If you are telling me a TE will take a few years to develop, then that doesn't seem to be smart given how the Cowboys roster build. And then take a guy like Musgrave. He's completely raw with no production in college. He's clearly a developmental guy. I'd trust Mayer and Kincaid to give me production way sooner than Musgrave.

 

[beware_d-ware]

Hence why I am not a fan of taking a TE in the first round, regardless of how much of a combine freak he is.

With the way Dallas uses FA to just fill depth holes and try to get cheap starters, the Cowboys don't have the luxury of their first round pick being a 2-3 year project. They need their first rounders to play from the start and make a contribution.

If you are telling me a TE will take a few years to develop, then that doesn't seem to be smart given how the Cowboys roster build. And then take a guy like Musgrave. He's completely raw with no production in college. He's clearly a developmental guy. I'd trust Mayer and Kincaid to give me production way sooner than Musgrave.

TEs do take a few years to develop, and they usually don't make a huge impact once they are ready. Which is why I like how the Cowboys have been doing it. Take a cheap guy like a Schultz, Jarwin, or Geoff Swaim, lock them in the weight room for 1-2 years, start them later, and then keep the pipeline full with cheap rooks behind them. And it's got us a stream of decent TEs.

If you want a game changer TE, you need to draft a game changer talent (which usually translates into freak-zone size and speed), then wait 1-2 seasons for their learning curve. That needs to be priced into their draft cost, of course. If you are fine cruising at Schultz altitude, you just replace a Schultz with a Ferguson and keep the machine humming.

The problem with Mayer IMO is that he's closer to a Schultz than a Gronk, and he's not even really pro-ready because TEs never are.

We'll see how he tests. If he tests as a Goedert type athlete, I can justify a day 1 pick for him. I just have a feeling he will test closer to a Schultz or Freiermuth.

 

[cnuball21]

TEs do take a few years to develop, and they usually don't make a huge impact once they are ready. Which is why I like how the Cowboys have been doing it. Take a cheap guy like a Schultz, Jarwin, or Geoff Swaim, lock them in the weight room for 1-2 years, start them later, and then keep the pipeline full with cheap rooks behind them. And it's got us a stream of decent TEs.

If you want a game changer TE, you need to draft a game changer talent (which usually translates into freak-zone size and speed), then wait 1-2 seasons for their learning curve. That needs to be priced into their draft cost, of course. If you are fine cruising at Schultz altitude, you just replace a Schultz with a Ferguson and keep the machine humming.

The problem with Mayer IMO is that he's closer to a Schultz than a Gronk, and he's not even really pro-ready because TEs never are.

We'll see how he tests. If he tests as a Goedert type athlete, I can justify a day 1 pick for him. I just have a feeling he will test closer to a Schultz or Freiermuth.

This times a million.

 

[Sydla]

TEs do take a few years to develop, and they usually don't make a huge impact once they are ready. Which is why I like how the Cowboys have been doing it. Take a cheap guy like a Schultz, Jarwin, or Geoff Swaim, lock them in the weight room for 1-2 years, start them later, and then keep the pipeline full with cheap rooks behind them. And it's got us a stream of decent TEs.

If you want a game changer TE, you need to draft a game changer talent (which usually translates into freak-zone size and speed), then wait 1-2 seasons for their learning curve. That needs to be priced into their draft cost, of course. If you are fine cruising at Schultz altitude, you just replace a Schultz with a Ferguson and keep the machine humming.

The problem with Mayer IMO is that he's closer to a Schultz than a Gronk, and he's not even really pro-ready because TEs never are.

We'll see how he tests. If he tests as a Goedert type athlete, I can justify a day 1 pick for him. I just have a feeling he will test closer to a Schultz or Freiermuth.

But again, the Cowboys by their own roster building plan where they put a premium on draft picks being immediate impact guys.

By your own acknowledgement, TEs take awhile to develop even ultra toolsy, athletic guys. So why in the world would you take a raw TE like Musgrave in the first? Sure, he might test off the charts. But he has little track record in college and his bust factor is way higher than Kincaid and Mayer at this point?

Hence why I think taking a TE at 26 is a risk and if the board was totally wasted at that point, I'd take the more sure thing than the high ceiling, high risk guy. The Cowboys need their first round picks to play. Mayer is way closer to being NFL ready than Musgrave.

 

[beware_d-ware]

But again, the Cowboys by their own roster building plan where they put a premium on draft picks being immediate impact guys.

By your own acknowledgement, TEs take awhile to develop even ultra toolsy, athletic guys. So why in the world would you take a raw TE like Musgrave in the first? Sure, he might test off the charts. But he has little track record in college and his bust factor is way higher than Kincaid and Mayer at this point?

Hence why I think taking a TE at 26 is a risk and if the board was totally wasted at that point, I'd take the more sure thing than the high ceiling, high risk guy. The Cowboys need their first round picks to play. Mayer is way closer to being NFL ready than Musgrave.

Cnu said it... you need sub-4.7 speed at as heavy of a weight as you can get. Those are the difference makers.

Mayer and Musgrave are both pretty big dudes... similarly sized IIRC. If Mayer runs say a 4.69 and Musgrave runs a 4.61, I am taking Mayer on account of proven production. But if Mayer runs a Schultz-esque 4.75, and Musgrave cracks the 4.5s, it is Musgrave all day.

From my favorite Combine article series ever... the biggest predictor of TE success in the league is size-adjusted speed.

https://www.nbcsportsedge.com/article/combine-breakdown/which-combine-tests-matter-position

 

[Sydla]

Cnu said it... you need sub-4.7 speed at as heavy of a weight as you can get. Those are the difference makers.

Mayer and Musgrave are both pretty big dudes... similarly sized IIRC. If Mayer runs say a 4.69 and Musgrave runs a 4.61, I am taking Mayer on account of proven production. But if Mayer runs a Schultz-esque 4.75, and Musgrave cracks the 4.5s, it is Musgrave all day.

From my favorite Combine article series ever... the biggest predictor of TE success in the league is size-adjusted speed.

https://www.nbcsportsedge.com/article/combine-breakdown/which-combine-tests-matter-position

In an ideal world, you aren't taking any TE at 26. TE ranks with TB for me as a first round pick.

But using this, what if said player has limited college production? How does that translate into this? Or do you throw that out and only use your 1st round pick based on how he scores?

Musgrave has limited production due to a variety of factors including injury. Yeah, there is no way I am using a first round pick on a guy with that resume no matter how awesome he scores at the combine. I see only two first round picks at TE - Kincaid and Mayer - that could be OK with (really not OK because again, I don't want to use a first round pick on a TE).

PS - The chart is based on Approximate Value, which even the creator of that stat says has serious limitations because football is tougher to quantify certain levels of production.

 

[cnuball21]

Cnu said it... you need sub-4.7 speed at as heavy of a weight as you can get. Those are the difference makers.

Mayer and Musgrave are both pretty big dudes... similarly sized IIRC. If Mayer runs say a 4.69 and Musgrave runs a 4.61, I am taking Mayer on account of proven production. But if Mayer runs a Schultz-esque 4.75, and Musgrave cracks the 4.5s, it is Musgrave all day.

From my favorite Combine article series ever... the biggest predictor of TE success in the league is size-adjusted speed.

https://www.nbcsportsedge.com/article/combine-breakdown/which-combine-tests-matter-position

So it’s almost like the way speed score translates to RB success?

Give me the 220 lb dude that runs high 4.4s and let’s ride?

 

[cnuball21]

In an ideal world, you aren't taking any TE at 26. TE ranks with TB for me as a first round pick.

But using this, what if said player has limited college production? How does that translate into this? Or do you throw that out and only use your 1st round pick based on how he scores?

Musgrave has limited production due to a variety of factors including injury. Yeah, there is no way I am using a first round pick on a guy with that resume no matter how awesome he scores at the combine. I see only two first round picks at TE - Kincaid and Mayer - that could be OK with (really not OK because again, I don't want to use a first round pick on a TE).

PS - The chart is based on Approximate Value, which even the creator of that stat says has serious limitations because football is tougher to quantify certain levels of production.

Either way I don’t like any of the TEs in the first. I think it’s a good class but no one dynamic enough to take in the 1st.

 

[beware_d-ware]

In an ideal world, you aren't taking any TE at 26. TE ranks with TB for me as a first round pick.

But using this, what if said player has limited college production? How does that translate into this? Or do you throw that out and only use your 1st round pick based on how he scores?

Musgrave has limited production due to a variety of factors including injury. Yeah, there is no way I am using a first round pick on a guy with that resume no matter how awesome he scores at the combine. I see only two first round picks at TE - Kincaid and Mayer - that could be OK with (really not OK because again, I don't want to use a first round pick on a TE).

PS - The chart is based on Approximate Value, which even the creator of that stat says has serious limitations because football is tougher to quantify certain levels of production.

They're all pieces of the puzzle. College production is predictive. Speed score is also predictive. We have the college yardage numbers locked in... let's see what the runs look like and we can judge from there.

So it’s almost like the way speed score translates to RB success?

Give me the 220 lb dude that runs high 4.4s and let’s ride?

Yep.

Analytics gets looked at by football fans with new-kid skepticism, but at least for draft prospects, it usually comes to a pretty old-school conclusion. At most positions, big, fast, and strong dudes will tend to be better at playing football.

 

[cnuball21]

They're all pieces of the puzzle. College production is predictive. Speed score is also predictive. We have the college yardage numbers locked in... let's see what the runs look like and we can judge from there.



Yep.

Analytics gets looked at by football fans with new-kid skepticism, but at least for draft prospects, it usually comes to a pretty old-school conclusion. At most positions, big, fast, and strong dudes will tend to be better at playing football.

Only RB I see Cowboys meeting with so far is Ibanikanda who I love. Looking forward to his workout: