The unplanned decline of the NFL

csirl

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This thread title should probably have...".in the USA" tagged on the end.

For every US fan who stops following there are 3 or 4 overseas fans taking his place. The owners love RG because he has successfully globalised the NFL as an commodity opening up loads of untapped markets ($$$$$$).

A few on this thread talk about the Cowboys being a key franchise because of their nationwide fanbase. Unfortunately the Cowboys have not been very successful in the overseas markets. They rank mid table of teams overseas fans follow (excluding Mexico where they are #1). This will diminish their influence over time as a key franchise. Its sad to say that teams such as NE, Steelers, Broncos, 49ers and even the Deadskins have a much bigger following overseas.
 

Verdict

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When it comes to changing the entertainment interests of a large number of people, "movements" just don't work. Things like billboard campaigns and organized calls for people to "don't go to events" or "don't watch it on TV" have very little short term effects and almost no long term effects against whatever the target is.

The problem is that, while important, most so-called issues are just not deal breakers for most people, especially not to the loyal fans. How many Get-Rid-Of-____ posts did we see on CZ back in the 2000's? Three 5-11 years in a row .. for the COWBOYS!?!? Yet, the NFL and Dallas Cowboys just kept getting more popular and more valuable. Movements, petitions, promotions, campaigns, etc. just don't have any long term effects like people think or hope they do.

So, what does push long time fans away from something they adore? A decline in entertainment or enjoyment value more than anything, but that is rarely a quick process. That is when bad decisions lead to a decline in quality over time, with a large part of it going unnoticed early on except by a few "Wolf! cryers" until one day it just hits you, "What happened to this?"

There is one thing of course that will push long time fans away more quickly, and that is when decisions are made that either greatly change or negatively affect the product/service/entertainment or that deeply offend or upset the fans. For example, when Jerry fired Landry, especially the way he did it, it drove a lot of older fans away from the team who have never returned. Younger fans were upset as well, but the Super Bowl wins a few years later helped bring a lot them back into the fold.

In a more current example, Cowboys fans are losing interest in the NFL because of a perceived bias against the team over the last few years, culminated by the unjustified suspension of Ezekiel Elliott. While that in itself is not enough to drive Cowboys fans away from the team itself, many Cowboys fans' views of the NFL are way more negative and tainted these days. For example, I do not watch NFL games unless the Cowboys are playing, where I used to watch NFL games almost every time they were on.

The world of entertainment is changing. People are moving away from scheduled-based TV and moving more toward on-demand entertainment. That last big hold-out for scheduled-based entertainment has been sporting events, with the NFL dominating that market for the last few decades. However, with the change in how people view and want entertainment combined with all of the missteps, mistakes and decisions the NFL has been making in recent years along with a noticeable decrease in quality of the NFL as a whole, these things are starting to impact the NFL's long time untouchable popularity.

For example, ten years ago, if a network cancelled your favorite TV show, you might have been upset, but you looked for and eventually found a replacement for it. Now, because most people are wanting more control and freedom in their lives, people are moving away from scheduled TV shows and TV in general. So, when a network cancels a show you like, you get upset, but then you soon realize that's another 30-60 minutes of your life each week that's no longer tied up with something usually 13-24 weeks out of the year.

For me, the NFL is the same way. In the past, my Sundays, Monday nights and Thursday nights were usually tied up with watching NFL games, either directly or casually while doing something else. Now, I only have one game a week I watch and in many cases, I am doing something else while the game is on, which I never did in the past while watching Cowboys games. Watching Cowboys games used to be a mental break for me from the rest of my busy schedule. I watched Cowboys games, and even the commercials, from start to finish. Now, I find myself sometimes wondering things like, "How did they get the ball back so quickly?" or "How did they get up/down by 3?"

People's entertainment interests have been changing for a while. Unlike many forms of entertainment, the NFL seemed to be shielded (pun intended) from those changes, but cracks have been appearing the last few years, and it seems like this year, the cracks are about to be replaced by gaping holes as fans and viewers leave.

The decline of the NFL has already started and given how long the process has been in motion, I cannot see any way it recovers. At best, the NFL needs to start making better decisions and providing teams with a better way to field more competitive teams if they want to hold on to what they still have.

I totally agree. This is a very real phenomenon. If the NFL owners don't realize that the NFL has taken a very real hit in perception over the past couple of years they are in complete denial.

I think the owners are looking at current revenue and saying hey it is as popular as ever, but there is a lag between perception and revenue both ways. I can't tell you how many people I know who used to really like football have said I am done with the NFL (at least for now) over the anthem stuff and they mean it. Some of them haven't watched an NFL game this year.

I'm a die hard football fan. Die hard. And all of the drama and bull**** over the Zeke fiasco, the phantom calls and non calls, the no holding calls on the opposing team for a 6 game stretch, the anthem deal, the cease and desist attitude toward Jerry, all of it is really challenging my desire to watch the NFL and I really want to watch football. It is rapidly changing sentiments against the NFL.
 

Verdict

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Good post Reality.

The fundamental mistake the league has made was to try to reach out to non-football fans to grow their market with the assumption that their die hard fans would stick with them.

It never dawned on them that by reaching out to people who don't care about the game, they alienated hard core fans like those on this very forum.

Now the NFL is in a position where long time fans are turning away from the game while the people they were trying to attract still couldn't care less.

BINGO. The NFL has become like a police state (big brother) watching every move hoping to fine, suspend or banish transgressors for minor issues. The pendulum has swung far too far in this direction.
 

CT Dal Fan

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Anyone watching the Navy and Notre Dame game? It is football joy.

Good point. I will watch an entire college game still. The only NFL games I watch now for all four quarters are Cowboys games.

For example, I think I watched Thursday's Titans-Steelers game for maybe 15 minutes real time. Checked back late for the final score. The interest level is just not there anymore.
 

Fritsch_the_cat

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yep, Bryant, no OL holds in six games, the Butler non penalty, screwing Zeke over big time, all adds up

Yeah, and the weird illegal huddle penalty in the GB game last year, Clay Matthews hitting Romo well after the play the year before but no penalty, and Duane Harris being penalized for hitting a guy too hard.




It's just become too much. I expect to get screwed over by the refs these days.
 

DFWJC

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This thread title should probably have...".in the USA" tagged on the end.

For every US fan who stops following there are 3 or 4 overseas fans taking his place. The owners love RG because he has successfully globalised the NFL as an commodity opening up loads of untapped markets ($$$$$$).

A few on this thread talk about the Cowboys being a key franchise because of their nationwide fanbase. Unfortunately the Cowboys have not been very successful in the overseas markets. They rank mid table of teams overseas fans follow (excluding Mexico where they are #1). This will diminish their influence over time as a key franchise. Its sad to say that teams such as NE, Steelers, Broncos, 49ers and even the Deadskins have a much bigger following overseas.
Add up the entire overseas market and put it in a teacup compared the US market.
Come on, csirl.
American football is a novelty overseas. I travel to most main parts of the world and American football is borderline non-existent there....and they certainly don't pay billions for tv rights. It's right there with the worst foreign soap opera as far as tv popularity...if ever on at all.
 

Beast_from_East

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Yeah, and the weird illegal huddle penalty in the GB game last year, Clay Matthews hitting Romo well after the play the year before but no penalty, and Duane Harris being penalized for hitting a guy too hard.




It's just become too much. I expect to get screwed over by the refs these days.

Officiating in our games is so bad.

It’s been 24 consecutive quarters, 6 straight games, no hold calls on opponents oline. Meanwhile there have been 18 hold calls against our oline during this stretch.

Does anybody really think this is a coincidence that at the same time Zeke has been fighting his appeal and Jerry has been holding up Goddell’s extension.

Please tell me nobody on this site is that gullible to think this is just one big coincidence.
 

Philmonroe

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Good post Reality.

The fundamental mistake the league has made was to try to reach out to non-football fans to grow their market with the assumption that their die hard fans would stick with them.

It never dawned on them that by reaching out to people who don't care about the game, they alienated hard core fans like those on this very forum.

Now the NFL is in a position where long time fans are turning away from the game while the people they were trying to attract still couldn't care less.
I think this whole post can extend to a lot of other things this sport obviously included
 

csirl

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Add up the entire overseas market and put it in a teacup compared the US market.
Come on, csirl.
American football is a novelty overseas. I travel to most main parts of the world and American football is borderline non-existent there....and they certainly don't pay billions for tv rights. It's right there with the worst foreign soap opera as far as tv popularity...if ever on at all.

This isnt correct. For example, Germany alone has 50,000+ registered players. This is the equivalent of 2 x average US States. The quantum of players across Europe is equivalent to c.10-15% of US numbers and growing rapidly. Players are an indicator of the level of interest in the sport.

Most European countries are getting 5 to 6 live NFL games per week. They are shown in primetime on major stations who have had to bid for the rights. Remember that the early afternoon kick offs are all early evening in Europe. Viewing figures are growing rapidly. The audience is very young - most kids growing up in Europe are now exposed to as much football as other major sports. This means the audiences will grow due to demographics.

NFL games in London are still more than twice over subcribed for fixtures that wouldnt even sell out in their home markets. Note that the sport is not as popular in the UK as in Germany, France, Scandanavia, central Europe, so we could only imagine how many games per year would sell out in the bigger European markets.

This view that NFL is a niche or curiosity in Europe (as it was 30 years ago)is old fashioned and out of touch.
 

willia451

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Suspending Zeke was the deal breaker for me personally. The final nail in the coffin. Bad enough that the average fan can no longer afford to attend a live game. Or that the byzantine and corrupt piece of dung the NFL has become cannot even define to its fan base what a catch is or is not. But watching what these letches and sycophants did to Zeke was impossible to ignore or absolve.

The NFL is merely a curiosity to me now. Like watching the body of a snake whose head has been cut off writhe and contort in agony. Wondering how long it will take for the nervous system of the body to realize it no longer has a brain and submit to its death.

Tick, tock. Tick, tock.
 

DCowboyz

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I'm the same way. I only watch the Cowboys games now and I've just started to watch college football more, like UM. Hopefully they reach the national championship.
 

Broges74

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I just can't get over the discipline of the players for smoking pot or for crimes which have not been convicted in a court of law. Many of these players are difference makers for their team. It degrades the product on the field and makes me question the roll of the owners in sports.

RG is trying to protect the shield but going about it in a way that causes basic fairness to be overlooked and suspended for a plant that the majority of people in the US don't want illegal.
 

landroverking

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I use to get up early on Sundays watch all the pre game shows. Watched as must coverage during the week and listen to the NFL , mad dog, the Heard and M&M.
Now days almost none of that.
I want my football to be entertainment and an excape. That's been lost this year with polical drama and the ownership Vs the commissioner and the NFLPA.
 

Parcells4Life

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The biggest reason people only watch their team now is because of technology. In the 90s or even 2007 when we were battling for playoff positioning the only way we knew what was going on was to watch the game.

Now we can just check twitter every 30 minutes for updates.

If you did a poll on amount of people that pay attention to the NFL the number is probably the same as last 10 years but number of people to watch the actual game is down due to being able to get the info other places
 

Diehardblues

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When it comes to changing the entertainment interests of a large number of people, "movements" just don't work. Things like billboard campaigns and organized calls for people to "don't go to events" or "don't watch it on TV" have very little short term effects and almost no long term effects against whatever the target is.

The problem is that, while important, most so-called issues are just not deal breakers for most people, especially not to the loyal fans. How many Get-Rid-Of-____ posts did we see on CZ back in the 2000's? Three 5-11 years in a row .. for the COWBOYS!?!? Yet, the NFL and Dallas Cowboys just kept getting more popular and more valuable. Movements, petitions, promotions, campaigns, etc. just don't have any long term effects like people think or hope they do.

So, what does push long time fans away from something they adore? A decline in entertainment or enjoyment value more than anything, but that is rarely a quick process. That is when bad decisions lead to a decline in quality over time, with a large part of it going unnoticed early on except by a few "Wolf! cryers" until one day it just hits you, "What happened to this?"

There is one thing of course that will push long time fans away more quickly, and that is when decisions are made that either greatly change or negatively affect the product/service/entertainment or that deeply offend or upset the fans. For example, when Jerry fired Landry, especially the way he did it, it drove a lot of older fans away from the team who have never returned. Younger fans were upset as well, but the Super Bowl wins a few years later helped bring a lot them back into the fold.

In a more current example, Cowboys fans are losing interest in the NFL because of a perceived bias against the team over the last few years, culminated by the unjustified suspension of Ezekiel Elliott. While that in itself is not enough to drive Cowboys fans away from the team itself, many Cowboys fans' views of the NFL are way more negative and tainted these days. For example, I do not watch NFL games unless the Cowboys are playing, where I used to watch NFL games almost every time they were on.

The world of entertainment is changing. People are moving away from scheduled-based TV and moving more toward on-demand entertainment. That last big hold-out for scheduled-based entertainment has been sporting events, with the NFL dominating that market for the last few decades. However, with the change in how people view and want entertainment combined with all of the missteps, mistakes and decisions the NFL has been making in recent years along with a noticeable decrease in quality of the NFL as a whole, these things are starting to impact the NFL's long time untouchable popularity.

For example, ten years ago, if a network cancelled your favorite TV show, you might have been upset, but you looked for and eventually found a replacement for it. Now, because most people are wanting more control and freedom in their lives, people are moving away from scheduled TV shows and TV in general. So, when a network cancels a show you like, you get upset, but then you soon realize that's another 30-60 minutes of your life each week that's no longer tied up with something usually 13-24 weeks out of the year.

For me, the NFL is the same way. In the past, my Sundays, Monday nights and Thursday nights were usually tied up with watching NFL games, either directly or casually while doing something else. Now, I only have one game a week I watch and in many cases, I am doing something else while the game is on, which I never did in the past while watching Cowboys games. Watching Cowboys games used to be a mental break for me from the rest of my busy schedule. I watched Cowboys games, and even the commercials, from start to finish. Now, I find myself sometimes wondering things like, "How did they get the ball back so quickly?" or "How did they get up/down by 3?"

People's entertainment interests have been changing for a while. Unlike many forms of entertainment, the NFL seemed to be shielded (pun intended) from those changes, but cracks have been appearing the last few years, and it seems like this year, the cracks are about to be replaced by gaping holes as fans and viewers leave.

The decline of the NFL has already started and given how long the process has been in motion, I cannot see any way it recovers. At best, the NFL needs to start making better decisions and providing teams with a better way to field more competitive teams if they want to hold on to what they still have.
I agree with the basis of the statement . For me and much of my generations of sports fans we basically don’t have anything else we’d rather be doing on Sunday afternoons plus the NFL is what we grew up doing on Sunday afternoons. It’s part of our culture . I think it’s why we’ve seen the uproar over the recent events and current trends is that we are too stubborn to change our ways and habits as the NFL is an addictive consumption. We only complain with a lesser or conflicting product all the way to the bank.

The Cowboys are a great example as the product on the field have decreased and distractions off the field have increased much of the fan base is very frustrated and dissatisfied but our addiction to football and the NFL enables the revenue stream to continue superseding the results or product. This is much of the reflection around the league.

The decline is mostly part of the changing landscape your referring to in how society views TV which the NFL declines are aligned with overall viewership. I’m sure a few of fringe fans have aborted but as you said correctly there’s always something to deter casual fans.

I really don’t believe at least at this time there really is the crisis many are wanting to claim as a little downturn with a product which has shown tremendous growth in recent years is at least secure as long as my generation and probably the next generation as we are the two segments with the lowest declining numbers . It’s the Millinnials the TV networks and NFL need to be concerned with as their attention span is not what ours is .

Looks like the NFL is already experimenting towards this group with their Yahoo online streaming this year with game from London . This probably represents more of the future and ultimately the demise of Free TV as I call it.

But except here in the South where football is king Im not sure what the rest of the nation would do for their entertainment on Sunday afternoons when the weather is bad. At least here I can go out and play golf which during football season basically stops for me on Saturday and Sunday afternoon unless I tee off very early but if it’s too chilly then that’s out.

In the end a financial downturn the NFL will adjust much like other professional sports do with more Cable network broadcast like MNF moving to ESPN with decling numbers. And if that means a few billion a year less the NFL will resort back to more of what it used to be. A second fiddle to College Football which hasn’t been as effected by these recent downturns.
 
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