Wulfman
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The Wulf Den: Draft Reflections
The draft has come and gone, the undrafted rookies have been signed, and we now have a better idea where we may still have needs to be addressed in free agency. As I mentioned in my “Draft Primer” last week, draft strategy is a complicated and varied thing. And, as much as some people refuse to believe it, the reality is that there is no such thing as drafting the best player available (BPA) every time, nor are there successful drafts driven strictly by teams’ needs. Those concepts may be what drive all of the mock drafts that seem to spawn like blowflies on rotting meat every year, but the reality is that every team considers any number of things before developing what their strategy will be for that year’s draft.
For example, who may be a really good player but not a fit for our team because of scheme, injury concern, off-field issues, etc? Where do we have holes that need to be filled, either in the draft or free agency? Who are the really explosive playmakers in the draft? Where are we getting older on our team where we will need an infusion of young talent? What contracts do we have that will be completed in the near future? What contracts do we have that will become hard or impossible to manage in the next year or two? What’s available in free agency that might allow us to have a contingency plan? What trade offers have been made to us by other teams that we might want to pursue? Where is the overall value in this draft, both in terms of position and round?
You see, it’s not as simple as just a BPA or fill-the-needs mindset. And if you think it is, you’ll likely fall into the category of the masses of “draft evaluators” who base everything they say and judge on their own perceptions of player talent and team need. The “experts” like Mel Kiper want to tell us the best player for a team to take, or judge why a player was the wrong choice. Well, I’ll tell you what…you show me the tape of Kiper actually playing football, and I’ll give his opinion a little more credence. Let me see on his resumé where he coached and at what level, or what front office he worked in.
Wait, you mean he hasn’t done any of that? Then why in the blue blazes would I trust his evaluation over the people who work in ANY front office around the league who have played and/or coached, and who watch more film collectively than he could possibly hope for?
Now before anyone thinks I’m singling Kiper out, let me assure you that’s not the case. I am simply using him as an example to say that there is no one in the media who has not been in the game or who is not actively evaluating in a collaborative way who will ever have as accurate of a picture of a player as those scouts and personnel guys who do it for a living 365 days a year. So even a guy like Mike Mayock who played the game, and who calls games as an analyst, isn’t as well versed as the guys who are pounding the road throughout the year. He admitted as much on screen, saying that it was a scout friend of his that first mentioned CB D. J. Hayden to him, and that prior to that, he didn’t even know the kid’s name. This is a first round draft pick we’re talking about, and he didn’t even know who he was!
So why are fans so eager to celebrate good grades given out by these guys immediately after the draft, or ready to fire everyone in the front office and burn the building down if the grades are bad? The simple answer is this: we don’t know the team’s draft strategy or draft board except for whatever little morsels they tell us about after the fact, so we therefore can’t understand how they arrived at the decisions they did. With that lack of knowledge comes a lack of comfort, causing us to reach out to fill the void with whatever the “experts” tell us, even before any of the players have set foot on the field.
So if you want to evaluate this draft, come talk to me leading into the 2015 NFL draft. At that point, we’ll know what we actually drafted, and be able to better evaluate just how successful the team was in not only drafting the right players, but in developing their draft strategy as a whole. For those of you who are ready to commit seppuku or jump off the cliff, back off and let things develop. For those of you convinced that this is an exceptional draft, back off and let things develop. There will be plenty of time for celebrating or complaining once we actually know which we should do.
Given what I’ve just said about not knowing the draft strategy of any team, even our own, it might now seem contradictory to discuss what I think about the picks made. And in a way it is, as I don’t know any better than the rest of you exactly what the Cowboys were thinking, what values they had placed on various players, who they had off of their draft board altogether, etc. What I will do, then, is base my opinion on my own evaluation of players’ talent and ability from film study combined with my own perceptions of the Cowboys’ team needs and what I believe they wanted to accomplish. Whether or not you agree is up to you, but I simply caution you not to buy into what the “experts” say any more or less than you buy into my opinion.
With that said, let’s take a look at the draft.
The Draft
In the first round, the Cowboys sat at #18, waiting to see who would drop to them. Perhaps they considered trading up in the draft, but I doubt they thought about it too much. There was a general consensus around the league that there was not a lot of elite talent at the top of the draft, but that there was a great deal of value to be had between picks 30-100. As such, many people had been advocating a trade down for the Cowboys if one of the players they had rated as first round talents wasn’t available when they went on the clock, rather than settling for a player not worthy of the pick.
When the time came for them to go on the clock, though, there was a player that all of the experts had rated as a top 5 prospect available, and at a position of perceived need. I, along with many others, was elated to see DT Sharrif Floyd available at pick #18, and was convinced that he would be the pick. As such, I’ll admit to a certain amount of frustration when they announced that the Cowboys had traded down with the 49ers, even though it was a scenario that I, myself, had thrown out as a distinct possibility. I was even more chagrined when I saw the trade compensation. After all, my handy dandy trade value chart said that we didn’t get good value by only getting a third round pick in return. We’ll set aside the fact that it’s the same chart that’s been out there since the Cowboys invented it in the early 90’s. After all, it’s not likely at all that the actual values had changed at any point in the last 20+ years, right?
If you didn’t pick up on it, that was sarcasm. The fact is that we have all used the trade value chart for years, but it has always been nothing more than a guideline. To think that it hasn’t changed over the years—especially with the new rookie wage scale in the new collective bargaining agreement—is naïve in the extreme. So maybe we got good value and maybe we didn’t. If you’re convinced we didn’t because of that widely-circulated value chart or simply because you wanted more, nothing I say will convince you otherwise. But I will say this: the only real way to evaluate who got the better of the deal will be to compare the players involved…and even that is flawed. Let’s say the Cowboys stayed put and took Floyd, the way I wanted. We have no way of knowing how much of an impact he would have had, even if he had been made the starter, and how he does in Minnesota in their scheme with their personnel won’t tell us how he would have done in Dallas either. What we will be able to see is how the players taken with the two picks the Cowboys got in return play, and how big of a role they’ll play for the Cowboys over the next few years.
So we get to pick #31, and a number of players that I had anticipated they might be interested in as a fallback position were gone. In fact, at that point, I didn’t have a single person with a first round grade on my board. At this point, you have the choice of trading down again for whatever you can get or standing pat and taking the best player on your board. The Cowboys decided on the latter and, considering the previously stated understanding that the best value in the draft would be between picks 30-100, as well as the fact that I don’t know if they had any trade offers OR what they may have been offered for pick #31, I’m not going to second guess them. With that pick, they chose Wisconsin C Travis Frederick. I didn’t have him rated quite that highly on my remaining draft board, but that’s not the important thing to me. The important thing is that their scouts, who have done an excellent job in identifying talent in recent years, led them to have him as their #22 overall prospect, and with only 19 players with first round grades, that means he was perceived by the front office as a top of the second round value. As such, they did not believe he would be available at #47, and NO ONE can prove that he would have been. So they took him, not only guaranteeing that they got someone of high value, but also guaranteeing a fifth year on his rookie contract. From a salary cap perspective, that fifth year is pretty significant.
When they got to pick #47 and both RBs Eddie Lacy and Montee Ball were available, I thought for certain that was going to be the pick. Instead, they announced TE Gavin Escobar from San Diego State, and once again, my temperature began to rise. Sure they needed a third TE, but couldn’t they have gotten one later? And wasn’t it a blocking TE they needed? Then why in the world did they take Escobar?!?
Oh, because he was at the top of their draft board, and almost equally ranked with Ertz and Eifert, the two TEs who had already been taken. Or maybe because every team in the league wants to be able to effectively run a 12-formation, putting two pass-catching TEs into the game at the same time to take advantages of mismatches on the field. Could James Hanna have done that for the Cowboys? No one knows. But Escobar arguably has the best hands of anyone in the draft, wide receiver or tight end, and the threat to the middle of the field with both he and Witten lined up at the same time cannot help but create mismatches OR draw the safeties inside, freeing up the WRs on the outside to play against 1-on-1 coverage. Still not a good enough image for you? Then try these two on for size.
Romo lines up in the shotgun with an empty backfield, Witten and Escobar at TE, Miles in the slot, and Terrance Williams (who I will discuss momentarily) and Dez on the outside. Even if opposing defenses rush three and drop eight into coverage, two of those five guys are going to have single coverage. That’s a nightmare that I hope plagues opposing defensive coordinators all year.
Or how about using a little 13-personnel, with Witten, Escobar, and Hanna all in the game, a single WR on the outside, and a single back? Looks a whole lot like a running formation, doesn’t it? But you have four legitimate receivers on the field, not counting the RB. Want to put 8 in the box to stop the rush? Go ahead. I’ll audible at the line, use my RB for pass protection, and send the WR and all three TEs out on routes with only three guys to cover them. Want to stay back to protect against the pass? Go ahead. I’ll run the ball right down your throat, and any of the three of those TEs should be good enough to do a seal block. For all of the talk about Escobar not being a blocker, you can see him seal-blocking in the running game in his highlight footage. He may not be a dominating blocker, but neither was Witten when he came out. I don’t need him to be dominating, I need him to be effective enough to allow the RB to do his thing. I think Escobar will be good enough, and more than good enough in the passing game. Is it where I had him rated? No, it’s a little higher, but only by about 10 picks. By my definition, that’s not a reach, and it gives them a flexibility that I don’t think Hanna gave them.
Then we get to the third round pick acquired in the trade down with San Francisco. And there sits WR Terrance Williams, who I had a second round grade on, waiting for us in the middle of the third. Whether people want to admit it or not, this, too, was a need pick. The Cowboys have been trying to find a third WR for years now, and by that I don’t mean a slot receiver. I think Dwayne Harris will fill that role just fine. But Miles and Dez are often injured, and Miles has added value out of the slot as well. What they needed was another guy with enough size and speed to line up outside and threaten deep, and Williams, who was the leading receiver in college football last year (and without RGIII, I might add), fits the bill. This was a nice value pick that also will fill a need on the roster as well as possibly giving the Cowboys an alternative to Austin a couple of years down the road if his injury problems continue.
With their own third round pick, they went with Georgia Southern’s S J. J. Wilcox. This is a guy that many of us heard they were interested in several weeks prior to the draft, so it came as no surprise. They certainly had a need at the safety position considering the unknowns facing them in regards to Church’s recovery and Matt Johnson’s ability to play the position. What’s pretty amazing about Wilcox, though, are his natural instincts at the position despite only playing it for one year. The former WR and RB is a phenomenal athlete, and you can actually see his game progress on the film as the season went along last year. He’s raw, but based on the obvious improvement during the season, as well as the way he showed up at the Senior Bowl, I believe that he could be a starter at the position as early as next year, and should provide a special teams boost this year even if he doesn’t challenge for a starting spot.
In the fourth round, the Cowboys made another very nice value pick by selecting CB B. W. Webb from Williams & Mary. Again, I had him rated as a third round value, and I heard some people talking about him as early as the second round. As such, getting him in the fourth round is a very nice choice. And lest there are those of you who don’t think he filled a need for the Cowboys, answer me this: who is the #4 CB on the roster? If you said Sterling Moore, you’re right. But do you want to hand him the job? Also, when Scandrick’s contract becomes less palatable in a year or two, who’s going to replace him? Add in that Webb has return ability as well as the Cowboys’ tendency for CBs to get injured, and there’s very little not to like about this pick.
When the fifth round came up, the Cowboys finally addressed their need for a RB to back-up starter Demarco Murray. Not only did this person need to be able to spell Murray occasionally, but with his tendency to get injured, the person picked here needed to be able to handle a starter’s duties, if necessary. Oklahoma State’s Joseph Randle was a nice value pick here, having been rated a least a full round higher than where he was taken. In addition, he has a number of traits in common with Murray, including size and running style, meaning that the Cowboys should be able to run the same offense no matter which RB is in the game. A very solid pick here, in my humble opinion.
With their last pick coming in the sixth round, the Cowboys took South Carolina OLB DeVonte Holloman. A converted safety, Holloman fills a need for depth at the LB position since a number of the LBs currently on the roster have been converted to DEs. Again, this was a value pick, as I had Holloman rated more than a full round higher than this. Based on the conversations with Holloman during and after his selection, this was Special Teams Coordinator Rich Bisaccia’s call all the way. As such, he’ll be expected to contribute immediately on special teams, and will work his way into competing for a bigger role on the defense as time goes along.
I would remiss if I wrapped up this section without mentioning the attempts the Cowboys’ made to trade back into the draft in the seventh round. The target? Arizona State OLB Brandon Magee. As it turns out, it’s a good thing that there were no takers, as they were able to sign him as an undrafted free agent just hours after the conclusion of the draft. And while we all know you can’t count of being able to find guys to make your roster from the ranks of the undrafted on a regular basis, the Cowboys seem to have a knack for being successful in this regard. It will be interesting to see if Magee or one or more of the others are able to have a sufficient impact to make the roster this year.
What’s Next?
The Cowboys will have a rookie mini-camp in ten days, and I anticipate we may see some churning at the bottom of the roster when it’s done. That’s to be expected, and we may not really have an idea about what role these new additions to the team will fill until the veterans arrive with the OTAs beginning in three weeks. At that point, some of the position and depth chart questions will begin to be answered.
In the meantime, the Cowboys have some needs that they were not able to fill during the draft. This is the case every year for every team, so it’s less a matter of lamenting what they couldn’t do and more a case of looking now at their alternatives. The one glaring need is to resolve the issue at RT. Jerry Jones made no bones about the fact that they were going to resolve Doug Free’s contract situation “sooner rather than later” following the draft, which, essentially, means that he’ll either take the pay cut they want him to take or he’ll be released. I believe whether fans want to hear it or not that the Cowboys would like to keep Free around at a discounted rate for depth purposes, if nothing else. I will not be surprised, however, if the Cowboys sign free agent RT Tyson Clabo within the next few days regardless of what Free decides to do. He would be an instant upgrade, IMHO, and doesn’t appear to be trying to break the bank.
Staying on the offensive line, the Cowboys could still be looking for a guard despite having drafted Frederick, who has nearly equal experience at both center and guard. Based on early comments by the staff, I’ll be shocked if he doesn’t begin at center, with Costa getting a chance to compete with him there as well as for one of the guard positions. Beyond that, though, there are a whole lot of question marks. Many saw Nate Livings struggle through a significant portion of the season, and how much of that may have been a result of poor play at the center position next to him or lingering injuries is anyone’s guess. Of the interior linemen, though, he appears to be the one with the least position flexibility, and is also the one whose restructured contract was NOT actually turned into the league. As such, he is, in many ways, the easiest of the veteran guards to release from a cap perspective. Other folks saw similar problems on the right side with Mackenzy Bernadeau, and I think he’s on the hot seat despite having some position flexibility AND a restructured contract. At best, I think they’re hoping he’ll provide veteran depth at multiple positions. And what about last year’s undrafted rookie, Ron Leary? Is he ready to compete for a starting job? If they believe he is, then they likely will hold pat at the position until he proves he’s not ready. If they’re not sure, though, it won’t surprise me to see them go out and get veteran Brandon Moore, in whom they’ve previously shown an interest.
The other position to watch in free agency is on the defensive line. And despite the howls of frustration from a lot of fans, it may not be at DT. A lot has been made about how they’re getting older inside, but looking at their roster, I just don’t see that. Ratliff and Hatcher are getting older, sure, but Lissemore, Crawford, Bass, and Calloway are all younger players…and that’s not including a guy who could push for a roster spot like Brian Price. They’ll rotate four guys through there during games, and it will not only save some of the wear and tear on those older guys, it will give the youngsters some much needed experience.
No, the need may be for a back-up DE. Ware and Spencer are set as your starters, and it’s expected that Crawford may get some looks out on the strong side as well. But who else is there? Is Alex Albright going to play at DE? I see no reason why he shouldn’t, especially considering he has been Ware’s back-up on the depth chart for the last couple of years. With his size, I think it more likely, though, that he would back-up Spencer on the strong side. This makes even more sense with the news that they’re going to be trying Kyle Wilber at DE as well. His size suggests he should play on the weak side behind Ware. Is that enough depth for you? I don’t know that it is enough for me. And if they decide to leave Albright at LB, the need grows even greater. I don’t anticipate them going out to get a Dwight Freeney or John Abraham to play behind Ware, but a player like free agent Israel Idonije who played with Chicago last year and knows the defense may be a cost effective addition.
The Rest of the Story
As we look forward after the draft, I don’t understand how people can be too upset about where the Cowboys stand. The general consensus was that the Cowboys needed to address the interior of the offensive line early in the draft, and then fill some team needs. Based on what I see of the draft, the Cowboys did exactly that. Did they fill all of the holes? Of course not. But then, few teams do. The reality is that free agency precedes the draft AND follows it for a reason, and that reason is to meet the needs every team has on its roster, while providing jobs to the veterans who find themselves without a team this time of the year.
As for the Cowboys, let’s take a look at what the 53-man roster may look right now.
QB (2) – Romo and Orton (no surprise here)
RB (3) – Murray, Randle, and Dunbar (I’ll be surprised if another RB on the roster can make a run at a roster spot.)
FB (1) – Vickers (Someone else may take his spot, but at this point, I doubt it.)
TE (3) – Witten, Escobar, and Hanna (No pure blocking TE, but I’m not convinced you need one in today’s NFL.)
WR (6) – Bryant, Austin, Williams, Harris, Beasley, and Coale (They may only take five here, and if they do, it’s between Coale and Beasley for the final spot.)
OL (9) – Smith, Free, Parnell, Bernadeau, Livings, Frederick, Costa, Cook, Leary (At this point, I think they’d like to bring in Clabo and a veteran guard, but I’ll stand here until they do.)
DL (9) – Spencer, Ware, Ratliff, Crawford, Hatcher, Lissemore, Calloway, Albright, and Wilber (This is presupposing that both Albright and Wilber will be treated as DEs.)
LB (7) – Lee, Carter, Durant, Holloman, Magee, Sims, and McSurdy (There will be a battle for the back-up positions, but this is what I’ve got until we actually get into mini-camp.)
CB (5) – Carr, Claiborne, Scandrick, Webb, Moore
S (5) – Church, Allen, Johnson, Wilcox, McCray (The fifith safety will come down to special teams and upside, which opens the door for Jakar Hamilton to beat out McCray.)
ST (3) – Jones, bailey, and Ladouceur (Nuff said)
Of course, there’s a long way to go, and only time will tell how the roster will ultimately shake out. But the front office has done what it feels is best for the betterment of the team. So whether you liked free agency or not, get ready. If you didn’t like the draft, it’s a part of the past. Let’s look ahead to the 2013 Cowboys. They are still America’s Team, and if the front office is right, we could be looking at a return to the playoffs and a divisional crown. If you don’t want to get on board, get off now, because this train is headed to the postseason.
All aboard!
