Wulfman
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The Wulf Den: Draft Special
I’m posting this here because it’s an article about drafting as much as anything else, and I usually put my articles here. If the mods want to relocate it to the Draft section, by all means do so.
Having said that, here we are, Cowboys’ fans…the NFL draft. This is likely the most anticipated day on the football calendar from the time the whistle blows in the fourth quarter of the final game of the previous season, with the opening of free agency period and the combine coming in at second and third. And in this age of instant information, as well as the incredible popularity of the draft itself, the media storm this year appears to be at an all-time high.
Unfortunately, that also means that the opinions, analysis, and rumor mills have been working overtime, leading to what I see as an unprecedented situation where it’s hard to tell who’s going to do what, who they’re really interested in, who’s really worth going to get, etc. Add in that teams are still trying to get used to the value of picks in the new rookie wage scale system, and even those who follow this stuff way more than they should—like myself—find ourselves scratching our collective heads.
As such, I think the best way to prepare for what we might see on Thursday night and in the two days to follow is simply to cut through the multitude of smokescreens and look at the draft in general terms.
Draft Philosophy
Every team has its own draft philosophy, and even individuals within the same war room can look at things very differently. As such, there’s no way to really anticipate how any particular team will approach the draft. There are, however, a number of general aspects that will affect the decision-making process, and I’ll look at a few of them in general terms.
First, there’s the area of addressing team needs. The rule of thumb is that you don’t draft for need, you draft for the best player available. However, anyone who thinks that teams don’t factor their team needs into how they rank their boards to some degree are deluding themselves. The only way to really be in a position to take the best player available, regardless of position, is to address any needs you have in free agency. This is exactly what the Cowboys have attempted to do this year, whether you agree with the choices they’ve made or not. In fact, the only area they weren’t able to address in some fashion was at TE, where Kellen Davis, the person they were targeting in free agency, opted to return to Chicago. But they brought in an inside linebacker, a safety, two guards, a veteran back-up QB, and a real FB, not to mention upgrading at one starting CB position. So while there’s clearly room for improvement at multiple positions, I think the Cowboys would argue that there’s no position they absolutely have to pick.
Second, there has to be a trading philosophy of some kind. Some folks want to stay put and take their picks, letting the draft come to them and trusting that there will be a quality player available when they’re on the clock. Others find the one player that they really want, and will go to extreme lengths to go get him. Atlanta did that in the first round last year for WR Julio Jones, and Washington has already done it this year to move up and take Robert Griffin III. Most teams fall somewhere in the middle, and are willing to move up or down within a certain range of picks if the price is right or they’re afraid they’re going to lose out on a player they would like to have. When it comes to trading, Jerry Jones might be behind only Bill Belichick in terms of willingness to move around, sometimes significantly. As such, his admission at the pre-draft press conference that they have already made contact with and received calls from multiple teams should surprise no one. And make no mistake—if Jerry sets his mind on going to get someone, he’ll find a way to get it done. That’s not always a good thing when it comes to the quality of the player that we end up with, unfortunately.
Third, there is how you grade players who have red flags for one thing or another. These can range from injury issues to off-the-field concerns, and have to be evaluated on a case-by-case basis. In general, however, a red flag means that a player is going to be taken at least one round later than their talent would otherwise dictate. The Cowboys have taken advantage of that in the second round each of the last two years, having first round grades on LBs Sean Lee and Bruce Carter, and taking them despite injury concerns. Off the field issues are often more significant red flags, and can result in players dropping multiple rounds or even off of draft boards altogether. Head Coach Jason Garrett is a particular stickler when it comes to “the right kind of guy” when it comes to these issues, and as long as he has to sign off on a player before the pick is made, it will be highly unlikely that players with significant off-the-field concerns will be chosen by the Cowboys.
Last, there is the talent versus character scale. When I refer to character here, I am not talking about off-the-field red flags that I discussed, above, but rather the intangibles that teams try to measure like leadership, work ethic, teamwork, film study, etc. Ideally, you want a player that has high grades in all of these character areas AND in the talent areas as well. Of course, those are your locks to go at the top of the first round. Everyone else has to be evaluated, and then front offices have to decide what level of character they must have to make a pick, as well as how much talent can cover for a deficiency in character. A highly talented player who appears unmotivated or has a poor work ethic is likely going to slide unless the coaching staff is convinced they can get a better level out of the player. These are risky picks, though. Players like Quinton Coples in this year’s draft could go in the top 15 picks or they could drop all the way into the mid-20s simply because there are concerns about his motor. There is usually a team that will become convinced they can “coach them up” and will pull the trigger based on talent alone. But as I said, it’s risky. The Cowboys under Jason Garrett put a great deal of emphasis on high character guys, and I believe that they’d take a high character guy with slightly lesser talent over a player with a high talent level with character deficiencies.
Cowboys Draft 2012
Because I believe the Cowboys have addressed in some fashion most of their pressing needs, I think they will try to approach the draft with as much of a pure “best player available” mentality as they can. But to say that they don’t still have needs that have undoubtedly affected their draft board would be extremely naïve. As such, let’s look briefly at the roster and where the “needs” might be.
QB – The signing of Kyle Orton to back up Tony Romo solidifies this position, and means that the Cowboys are under NO pressure to draft a QB this year. That doesn’t mean they won’t, as it’s becoming apparent that they’re not sold on Stephen McGee as a developmental QB. Look for a late round pick or an undrafted guy (like Patrick Witt from Yale) to be brought in.
RB – The emergence of DeMarco Murray last year means that the Cowboys don’t have to think about who their starter will be, and Felix Jones is an acceptable change of pace back. Philip Tanner showed some flashes as well, but ended the season on IR. With Jones scheduled to be a free agent next year, don’t be surprised if the Cowboys take a RB in the middle rounds.
FB – I think it’s unlikely the Cowboys use a pick on this position following the signing of Lawrence Vickers. Shaun Chapas, a draft pick from last year, is still on the roster as a back-up for training camp, and I think it unlikely they keep two FBs on the roster.
TE – As I mentioned previously, this position needs some help. Jason Witten is still one of the best in the game. And while John Phillips is a solid contributor from an H-back position, he’s not generally viewed as a receiving threat or an outstanding blocker. A draft pick will likely be used in the middle rounds, and could be as high as the second. They will also likely bring in multiple others as UDFA.
WR – The much-publicized departure of Laurent Robinson to Jacksonville via free agency has left a significant hole in the roster. The Cowboys are talking up Andre Holmes and Raymond Radway, and re-signed Kevin Ogletree. They also drafted Duane Harris last year to function as a slot receiver and return man. Unfortunately, when the Cowboys go three-wide, Miles Austin generally goes into the slot, so what they really need is someone who can line up outside and even start if either starter goes down with an injury. For all that the Cowboys are talking as if they are comfortable with the young guys they have, I think using a mid-round draft pick on a receiver is a strong possibility.
OL – I’m lumping all of the offensive linemen together simply because I think the situation is fairly straight-forward. Switching the starting tackles is likely all the remedy that position is going to get, barring a late round pick being used on an OT to develop behind Parnell. At guard, whether folks like it or not, I think the Cowboys believe they have already upgraded. That’s not to say they won’t take a guard in the draft if a value pick presents itself. But I think their focus is more on center in the draft, or, at the very least, on guards that they believe can also play center. This could be addressed as early as the first round if they believe DeCastro can step in and start at center from day one. Otherwise, expect a mid-round pick to be spent on a center or guard that can shift inside. Then in camp, I think you’ll see Costa, Kowalski, Arkin, Nagy, Bernadeau, Livings, and the draft pick fight it out, with the best three starting and two others holding the back-up spots. Garrett is all about competition.
DL – It’s fairly obvious that the Cowboys need an upgrade at DE, as well as to get younger, in general, on the defensive line. Coleman was a solid addition last year as someone who could help transition the team into Rob Ryan’s defensive scheme following the lockout-shortened offseason. But his ineffectiveness became very clear as the season wore on. The Cowboys like Lissemore and Geathers, but won’t hesitate to pull the trigger in the first couple of rounds to upgrade the position. And before the “move Ratliff to DE and get a bigger NT” crowd starts screaming, I get no indication that the Cowboys want to make that move, and that they like Jay right where he is. They could use better production behind him, however, which would allow him to rotate and not get worn down so much towards the end of the season. A young DE that could slide inside in four-man fronts might give him that opportunity.
LB – Ware is Ware, and there is no other. Spencer signed his franchise tender, and will be the starter this year. Based on what the Cowboys have said—and much to the consternation of many here—I will be more surprised to see him leave next year than I will be to see them sign him to a long-term deal before then. They could use another pass rusher on the outside, especially with Victor Butler a free agent next year. On the inside, Sean Lee has stepped up as a vocal leader, solidifying one starting spot. The Cowboys are hoping Carter will do likewise this year, but brought in Dan Connor as insurance. They’ll still need to pick up another player here, likely towards the end of the draft, to compete with practice squad member Orie Lemon.
CB – Just because they replaced Newman with Carr doesn’t mean they’re done. There are only three CBs on the roster right now that I think they are certain will be there when the final cuts are made, and Jenkins is recovering from injury. They need at least two more corners, and I anticipate they’ll take at least one in the draft. If they don’t find a second one there, they may go back to a veteran like Frank Walker to fill the gap. Don’t be surprised if they use a pick in the first three rounds for this position, not only for depth this year, but because Jenkins is a free agent next year.
S – Elam is out, Pool is in. To me, that’s breaking even, or close to it. I actually like Pool a little better, but he’s by no means a big improvement. Sensabaugh will start on the other side, and there’s no reason to think McCray and Church won’t be the back-ups considering their special teams contributions. But an elite starter at this position to start opposite Sensabaugh would be a huge help to the defensive backfield, and if Mark Barron is on the board at #14, I think he’s the pick. If not, I expect them to address it at some point in the middle rounds.
ST – The only special teams position that I think might warrant a look with a late-round pick is punter, where McBriar is recovering from injury and is a free agent. Chris Jones did okay when he filled in last year, though, and the team is staying in contact with McBriar and monitoring his recovery. If he’s going to be ready to go, I think the job is still his, so I think it more likely that they bring in an UDFA to compete with Jones in the meantime.
The First Round
Here is my final mock for the 2012 draft. I beat my brains out over this thing, in large part because of all of the conflicting information out there and because I was initially trying to anticipate trades as well. But with the old trade value chart all but obsolete under this new rookie wage scale, I quickly realized that value could go up or down this year compared to previous years, and that, in many ways, they will be establishing values all over again. I’ve heard some people say they think there will be a lot more trades because people are willing to take players at the top now that they don’t have to commit as much financially. But to me, that makes it less likely that the teams at the top will be willing to trade down without being overcompensated. As such, while I believe there will be trades as there always are, I don’t expect an appreciable difference in the amount of trading in the first round. Because this is such an unknown area, however, I decided to remove trades from my mock altogether. By doing so, I’m practically guaranteeing that it will be inaccurate. But it is what it is…and here it is.
1. Indianapolis Colts – Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford
No explanation needed.
2. Washington Commanders – Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor
No explanation needed.
3. Minnesota Vikings – Matt Kalil, OT, USC
They will take trade offers right up to the last minute, and they’ve considered taking Claiborne. But their first priority must be to keep QB Christian Ponder healthy, and Kalil can protect his blind side for the next 10 years.
4. Cleveland Browns – Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama
A no-brainer choice. Supposedly they are also considering Blackmon, but a QB’s best friend is a good running game, and Richardson is the best prospect to come out since Adrian Peterson.
5. Tamp Bay Buccaneers – Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU
Tampa would love to jump up to #3 and take Richardson, but I don’t think they’ll do it when it comes down to the price. Instead, they take Ronde Barber’s future replacement and as insurance against Aqib Talib’s possible absence as well.
6. St. Louis Rams – Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State
New Head Coach Jeff Fisher is a defensive-minded guy, and he’d take Claiborne in a minute if he were available. But with him off the board, it comes down to addressing the team’s most glaring need, and that is a legitimate #1 receiver for QB Sam Bradford.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars – Fletcher Cox, DT, Mississippi State
If there’s a crucial pick in the draft, it’s right here. Jacksonville would love to trade back and acquire more picks. They’d be tempted to take Blackmon if he were still on the board. But with him gone, they address their defensive line and, specifically, the pass rush. Jeremy Mincey and Aaron Kampman get decent pressure from the outside, but they need a disruptive force from the inside as well, and Cox is the best pass-rushing threat at defensive tackle in the draft.
8. Miami Dolphins – Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A & M
I know this is high for Tannehill considering his limited number of starts, but it just makes too much sense. The Dolphins need a legitimate franchise QB, and they can afford to let him sit initially while Matt Moore starts. No one knows this guy better than Offensive Coordinator Mike Sherman, his former head coach with the Aggies, so if he signs off on Tannehill, the pick is in.
9. Carolina Panthers – Melvin Ingram, DE, South Carolina
Charles Johnson has done a good job of bringing pressure from the DE position in Julius Peppers’ absence, but he needs a compliment on the other side. Ingram can be that explosive presence, and Head Coach Ron Rivera will love his versatility.
10. Buffalo Bills – Luke Kuechly, LB, Boston College
After bringing in Mario Williams and Mark Anderson at DE via free agency, and having drafting Marcel Darius last year, the Bills continue to rebuild the defense with one of the best prospects in the whole draft. Kuechly will step in and start in the middle, and should have a dominant rookie season considering the quality of the defensive line in front of him.
11. Kansas City Chiefs - Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina
A surprise pick here for some folks, but Gilmore has been climbing draft boards, and the Chiefs have to replace CB Brandon Carr, who left for the Cowboys in free agency. Gilmore is an immediate starter in Carr’s former spot.
12. Seattle Seahawks – Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina
I don’t personally think Coples should go this high, as there are concerns about his motor and work ethic. But when he’s motivated, he’s an elite pass-rusher, and I think Head Coach Pete Carroll will believe he can get that out of him. This is the first significant potential bust prospect off the board, in my opinion.
13. Arizona Cardinals – Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame
WR Larry Fitzgerald was campaigning for this pick, and he gets his wish. Floyd will give them the dynamic tandem in Arizona they haven’t had since Anquan Boldin’s early years with the team. If Kolb can’t get the job done with this tandem this year, they’ll be looking for a QB in the first round next year.
14. Dallas Cowboys – Mark Barron, S, Alabama
The pros and cons have been discussed all over these forums, so I won’t re-hash them. I’ve gone on record as saying that, barring injury, he’ll make the Pro Bowl within his first three years in the league, either for the Cowboys or for someone else, and I’m standing by it.
15. Philadelphia Eagles – Michael Brockers, DT, LSU
The other guy that the Cowboys are widely rumored to be interested in goes to their division rivals. Head Coach Andy Reid likes to build the offensive and defensive lines, and they need an upgrade on the interior of the defense to allow newly acquired LB Demeco Ryans to flow to the ball.
16. New York Jets – Chandler Jones, OLB, Syracuse
Head Coach Rex Ryan needs better pass-rushing, and Jones is among the best at that in this draft. This guy was a late-climber on a lot of draft boards, but the word I hear is that teams have had him rated highly for quite some time.
17. Cincinnati Bengals – Courtney Upshaw, DE, Alabama
The Bengals want this guy, and pull the trigger on him here rather than waiting until pick #21 because they’re afraid the Chargers will take him at #18 to bolster their pass rush.
18. San Diego Chargers – David DeCastro, G, Stanford
One of the cleanest players in the draft ends his slide. The Chargers have needs across the offensive line, and can’t pass on this quality of player.
19. Chicago Bears – Whitney Mercilus, DE, Illinois
One of the Bears’ biggest problems last year was an inability for anyone not named Julius Peppers to get to the QB. Enter Mercilus, who will pin his ears back and bring it from the other side.
20. Tennessee Titans – Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama
The Titans lost CB Cortland Finnegan to the Rams in free agency, and must replace him. Kirkpatrick comes in and starts from day one.
21. Cincinnati Bengals – Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor
The Bengals would have taken Kirkpatrick had he been available here. Instead, they draft another big-play WR to pair with A. J. Green.
22. Cleveland Browns – Riley Rieff, OT, Iowa
The Browns shored up their offense by giving it a running game at pick #4. Now they draft a bookend tackle to start on the right side opposite LT Joe Thomas. This team is going to line up and ram the ball down defenses’ throats, taking a significant amount of pressure off of QB Colt McCoy.
23. Detroit Lions – Janoris Jenkins, CB, North Alabama
The “head-scratcher” pick of the round. Jenkins has tons of off-the-field baggage, and really should be downgraded significantly because of it. But his talent is undeniable, as is the Lions’ need for a CB now that Eric Wright is gone to Tampa Bay. Head Coach Jim Schwartz will roll the dice and hope he can keep Jenkins on the straight and narrow.
24. Pittsburgh Steelers – Dont’a Hightower, LB, Alabama
The Steelers could go in a number of directions to bolster an aging defense or even to the offensive line. But the release of 10-year starting ILB James Farrior leaves the most glaring hole. Hightower, a team captain with Alabama who has played and won at a high level throughout college, is the perfect choice here.
25. Denver Broncos – Dontari Poe, DT, Memphis
The Broncos are elated that Poe is available, as he has the physical talent to be among the best DTs in the league. He has bust potential, but Denver is willing to gamble this late in the round to try to get the potential out of him.
26. Houston Texans – Nick Perry, OLB, USC
With Mario Williams’ exit to Buffalo, the Texans need a pass-rushing force for Defensive Coordinator Wade Phillips’ scheme. Perry fits the bill, and should have some early success in the scheme.
27. New England Patriots – Shea McClellin, DE, Boise State
The Patriots lost starting DE Mark Anderson to Buffalo in free agency, and replace him here with the kind of versatile, high-motor guy that Belichick loves.
28. Green Bay Packers – Andre Branch, OLB, Clemson
The Packers have to have someone who can play on the opposite side of Clay Mathews and put pressure on the QB. Branch has all of the ability to do exactly that.
29. Baltimore Ravens – Peter Konz, C, Wisconsin
The Ravens need to replace G Ben Grubbs who left in free agncy, and will need a long-term replacement for C Matt Birk at some point soon. Taking Konz allows them to plug him in for Grubbs this year and then move over to center when Birk is done. General Manager Ozzie Newsome loves to get guys like this a year or two before he actually needs them, and it’s one of the reasons the Ravens’ front office is widely considered to be one of the best in the league.
30. San Francisco 49ers – Coby Fleener, TE, Stanford
I know a lot of mocks have G Amini Silatolu going here, but I think Head Coach Jim Harbaugh wants to take a page from the Patriots’ playbook and pair his former TE at Stanford with Vernon Davis. The combination could be devastating to the rest of the NFC West.
31. New England Patriots – Cordy Glenn, OL, Georgia
If the Patriots stay and take this pick, I’ll be absolutely stunned. It’s far more likely that they trade back with a team looking to jump back into the first round for a player they really want, acquiring additional picks this year or next year in the process. But if they stay, they have multiple needs on the offensive line, and Glenn can potentially play tackle or guard.
32. New York Giants – Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford
The Giants would likely have taken Fleener had he still been available. They could also look at taking RB Doug Martin from Boise State here to pair with Ahmad Bradshaw, now that Brandon Jacobs is in San Francisco. But they need help on the offensive line, and Martin is a good value pick here.
The Rest of the Story
As for the rest of the draft, I posted who the Cowboys took in my final mock on the draft forums yesterday. But for those of you who didn’t see it, it looked like this:
Round 1 – Mark Barron, S, Alabama
Round 2 – Amini Silatolu, G, Midwestern State
Round 3 – Ryan Broyles, WR, Oklahoma
Round 4 – Jonathan Massaquoi, OLB, Troy
Round 4(c) – Philip Blake, C, Baylor
Round 5 – James Hanna, TE, Oklahoma
Round 6 – Chris Greenwood, CB, Albion
Round 7 – Braylon Broughton, DE, TCU
Also, remember that the league increased the rosters from 80 to 90, so the Cowboys will likely be bringing in even more undrafted free agents than normal. Expect at least 20 guys who don’t get drafted to be in Valley Ranch along with the draft picks for rookie mini-camps.
So here we go, Cowboys fans. Buckle your seatbelts, because it might be a bumpy ride.
