TheCount's Post-Season Hangover Mock

[jobberone]

Nice post Count

 

[Leadbelly]

For the first 3 years of Avril's collegiate career, he played OLB, so yeah, he's dropped into coverage and he has experience playing LB. Even on the Lions he's done it at DE. He played just as well this year as he played last year. If you want to knock him for taking advantage of playing next to a great player, that's your prerogative. I don't consider that a negative. We should move Ratliff to DE anyway and Avril can play next to him, problem solved!

The money is inconsequential as long as it doesn't cripple us, and it won't.

If run defense is such a priority, then we should just resign Spencer. He plays the run well.

Thomas is better than both Carr and Ross (when healthy), so yeah, it's a gamble there. I didn't expect anyone to love that signing, which is why I have us drafting a CB in the 2nd round as well. It's a low risk, high reward gamble that could pay off.

Thanks for the comment though, I like hearing other takes on players I may be interested it.

Well, I think the Terrell Thomas signing would be pretty smart. If he's cleared medically, it would be a great add and it steals a quality player (pre-injury) from the enemy.

For the same reason, I'd prefer Nicks over Grubbs. Not sure how the Saints will keep the band together and they already have Jahri Evans at $8m.

I have been coming to a similar offseason plan, though I went with doubling up on OLB rather than G -- tagging Spencer and drafting Nick Perry in round 1. The devil known vs the devil unknown. Also, grabbing Eddie Royal at $2m to replace Laurent and return punts.

Great plan though. Really appreciate the work that went into providing a realistic context to past contracts and our available budget.

 

[Eskimo]

The sad part about Cliff Avril is he was selected at our pick in the 2008 draft at the end of the 3rd. We traded the pick to Detroit.

What a difference this guy would have made to our defense over the past four years.

BTW - how did this guy fall that far? He ran a 4.51 at the Combine at 6-3 260 pounds. He played at a major college program with a history of churning out good OLB/DEs. Guys like that don't grow on trees.

 

[cobra]

Thanks for the info casmith and supercowboy.

 

[dogberry]

Looking at your FAs and draft choice, do you see six September 2012 starters?

Or am I being greedy?

 

[acer941]

Key Free Agents w/ Contract Estimates:

Cliff Avril, OLB (25) - 5 Years / 44 Million / 18m Guaranteed
My estimate is based on Lamar Woodley's deal with a few tweaks. At just 25, Avril would be smart to have his next deal expire before he's on the wrong side of 30, that way he can cash in one one more large deal before a smaller, short-term deal to close out his career. This may seem like a lot, but we are probably looking at 5 or so mil a year for Spencer (if you can believe that) if we resign him, so for 4 mil more, we get a proven pass rusher.

Carl Nicks, OG (27) - 6 Years / 42 Million / 16m Guaranteed
This estimate is based on Davin Joseph's deal from last year, which is to say a very talented guard with 2 deals left in his career. Nicks is the dream here, but we can save 1-2 mil per year on Grubbs vs Nicks (in my estimation), and we're going to use that money for the next FA.

Terrell Thomas, CB (26) - 2 Years / 6.5 Million / 3m Guaranteed
This estimate is based on Brent Grimes' deal with the Falcons last year. Thomas is coming off a knee injury and there will be a lot of questions about how he can bounce back. With these type of injuries, one year may not be enough to make a full recovery, so he opts for a 2 year deal so try and raise his stock back up and still be well under 30 to cash in.

To read my thoughts on these players as far as their play, you can visit my previous thread on 5 Upcoming Free Agents I Covet.


The Draft

1st Round #14 - David DeCastro, G, Stanford
Protect the franchise, Tony Romo. This team is rebuilding, it's not a dirty word, you can use it. It should be built from the inside out, ignore the shiny objects in your side-view mirror.

2nd Round #45 - Chase Minnifield, CB, Virginia
Some says he's a better college player than Ras-I Dowling was, so there's a chance he sneaks up but even with Terrell Thomas coming in, don't let that keep you from bringing in a CB with 1st round tallent.

3rd Round #83 - Ben Jones, C, Georgia
Smart, consistent, nasty and a face only a mother could love. I'd be pleased as punch to see him in Dallas.

4th Round #114 - Derek Wolfe, DE, Cincinnati
Pass rushing DE that may have some problems against the run. Can be a situational guy early, hopefully bulks up enough to be more effective as an anchor.

5th Round #145 - Chris Rainey, WR/RB/KR/PR, Florida
Rainey is Mr. Everything, but what he would bring to the Cowboys is explosiveness and versatility. Plenty of special teams experience, and blazing speed. I won't compare him to Sproles because Sproles is thicker, but he's the kind of guy that can make guys miss, and if he's somehow matched up on a LB, you can say goodnight.

6th Round #176 - Korey Williams, ILB, Southern Miss
Before tearing his ACL (This would make 3 ILB's with former ACL injuries, now that I think about it... probably not a good thing), Williams was off to a sizzling start - 23 tackles, 1 sack, 3 picks (with 1 returned for TD) and a couple of passes defended... all in just 4 games.

6th Round #TBD - Miles Burris, OLB, San Diego State
Situational pass rusher that has a nonstop motor and his fair share of athleticism. He's not an every-down guy, but at the very least he can play special teams and give us a guy to rotate in. Has the frame to add a bit of bulk while retaining his quickness. 17.5 sacks in the last 2 years, and he's played some decent teams like TCU, Michigan and Boise.

7th Round #207 - Hebron Fangupo, NT, BYU
A very, large man at 6'1" 330lbs with a lot of raw strength that currently plays the 5 technique (DE) in BYU's 3-4 defense. Obviously playing out of position, mostly because he was a late arrival after transferring from USC just last year.

Thoughts welcome, of course.

Which would give us a Starting Line-up of


Offense
QB - Tony Romo
RB - DeMarco Murray
FB - Tony Fiammeta
WR - Miles Austin, Dez Bryant, Laurant Robinson
TE - Jason Witten
LT - Tyron Smith
LG - Carl Nicks
C - Ben Jones
RG - David Decastro
RT - Doug Free

Defense
DE - Kenyon Coleman
NT - Ratliff/Fangupo splitting time
DE - Spears/ Lissemore
LOLB - Cliff Avril/ Miles Burris
ILB - Sean Lee
ILB - Bruce Carter/ Korey Williams
ROLB - D-Ware/ Victor Butler
LCB - Battle between Terrell Thomas and Chase Minnifield which i think Chase will win.
RCB - Mike Jenkins
Slot CB - Terrell Thomas/ Scandrick
FS - Gerald Sensabaugh
SS - Abram Elam

Special Teams
K - Dan Bailey
P - Mat McBriar
LS - L.P.
PR - Chris Rainey
KR - Chris Rainey

 

[fffiasco]

what happened to hatcher?

 

[Future]

I'd rather just resign Spencer than hope Avril can make the switch, especially coming off a contract year. But I like everything else, especially Rainey.

 

[Eskimo]

I'd rather just resign Spencer than hope Avril can make the switch, especially coming off a contract year. But I like everything else, especially Rainey.

Avril is the same size as Spencer.

Avril is much faster than Spencer (4.51 vs. 4.72 in the 40)

Avril can rush the passer - 11 sacks this year.

I'd much prefer going after Avril who can become a major difference maker here while everyone doubles Ware than Spencer who is unable to capitalize on all the 1-on-1 matchups he gets.

 

[dboy214]

nice analysis...a couple of questions.

1. what do you estimate it would take to sign larry grant for some ILB depth?

2. how does wolfe compare to watt? this defensive line needs a long, athletic player in the interior like watt and campbell..

3. if you want a thicker version of rainey wouldn't that be his teammate jeff demps? demps has similar measurables as sproles (5'7, 190 lbs). the thing is i don't know if he is as tough as sproles is. what makes sproles so great is fearlessness sticking his foot in the ground and running up the middle. how do you think he compares to him?

love the first 3 picks.

 

[TheCount]

I'd rather just resign Spencer than hope Avril can make the switch, especially coming off a contract year. But I like everything else, especially Rainey.

Avril is a calculated gamble. Let me ask you this: Imagine he was coming out this year, as a DE (We'll ignore the fact that he actually does have 3 years of collegiate linebacker experience) with the same measureables, would he or would he not be on your list as a potential draft-worthy OLB prospect for the Cowboys?

I'm going to guess that your answer is yes he would. And if that's the case, add on the fact that we now have proof he can play in the NFL. Proof he can rush the passer. Proof he can take advantage of playing next to quality NFL players and proof that he can be consistent in his production.

When you look at it that way, it may still be a gamble, but it's a lot less risky than it appears.

As far as the "it's a contract year" argument, his numbers were very similar to his numbers last year, and he played 3 less games. To me, these are signs he is improving, not a red flag.