CFZ There is Some Hope For Cowboys (Most Super Bowl Ingredients in Place)

[T-RO]

Super Bowl winning teams must meet minimum requirements, right?

In this thread I invite you to join me in discussing what those requirements are, and how the Cowboys '23 team might stack up in meeting this criteria.

#1 Super Bowl Criteria: A top defense.
I ran some numbers on Super Bowl winning teams from 1970 to present, and discovered the following:

-49 of 53 (92%) of Super Bowl champs featured above average defenses (points allowed)​

and​

-42 of 53 (79%) of Super Bowl champs featured defenses that ranked in the top eight​

​

​

Want to bring it closer to home? All (5 of 5) Cowboys Super Bowl winning teams possessed top-8 defenses! And for a bit of a shock? Consider that Tom Brady, Joe Montana, Terry Bradshaw and John Elway never won a Super Bowl without a top 8 defense!

To refine the numbers: 30 of 53 (57%) of Super Bowl champs rocked top five defenses. 14 Super Bowl Champs were #1 in defense.

So though there are occasional exceptions... let's wrap this up as Rule #1: A Super Bowl team needs a top eight defense, and top five is where it's at.

 

[T-RO]

If a top eight defense is a virtual requirement to win a Super Bowl...how many Cowboys teams since our last Super Bowl even meet criteria #1?

Cowboys Teams that Met Rule #1 of Champions - top 8 defensive ranking
1996, 3rd
1998, 3rd
1999, 5th
2003, 2nd
2009, 2nd
2016, 5th
2018, 6th
2021, 7th
2022, 6th

9 of 26 Cowboys team since our last Super Bowl passed Requirement #1

 

[T-RO]

Given the fact that Dallas' defense has been top 8 over the past 2 years, that Dan Quinn returns with the same system and that his troops are, if anything, only improved...Dallas looks poised to feature a top 8 defense again.

If not top five.

The team has an abundance of pass rushers, a complete secondary and adequate linebackers.

 

[CCBoy]

1996, 3rd
1998, 3rd
1999, 5th
2003, 2nd
2009, 2nd
2016, 5th
2018, 6th
2021, 7th
2022, 6th

That matches up with this? The playoff seasons since 1996:


1996-Switzer
1998-Chan Gailey
1999-Chan Gailey
2003-Bill Parcells
2006-Bill Parcells
2007-Wade Phillips
2009-Wade Phillips
2014-Jason Garrett
2016-Jason Garrett
2018-Jason Garrett
2021-Mike McCarthy
2022-Mike McCarthy


I wonder what would be a similar look of the offense be as well...?

 

[T-RO]

#2 Super Bowl Requirement: An Established and Respected Head Coach with a Winning Pedigree

We continue filtering wheat and chaff, contender from pretender. What Cowboys team In recent memory had any serious shot all?

Consider the coaches who have won Super Bowls: It's virtually never their first rodeo. They must establish a winning pedigree and earn the trust of their players. They must refine their art. They must be leaders of men. This is the case with almost all Super Bowl winning coaches: Belichick, Lombardi, Reid, Arians, Carroll, Coughlin, Payton, Dungy, Cowher, Gruden, Vermeil, Landry, Shanahan, Johnson, Holmgren, Gibbs, Walsh.

A look at the recent Cowboys teams that managed to pass the first filter. Can they pass the second filter for head coaching?
1996, 3rd D...Switzer had won a Super Bowl '95 so he passes with a big asterisk (though I don't respect his work)
1998, 3rd D...Little known Chan Gailey from college ranks in his first try in NFL. Zero Super Bowl chance.
1999, 5th D...Chan has a winning year under his belt, so he (barely) passes for this season
2003, 2nd D...Bill Parcells, It's Bill...so an obvious win based solely on coaching skill
2009, 2nd D...Wade Phillips, camp cupcake and a history as a losing Head Coach. Fail.
2016, 5th D...We know his ilk and destiny, but Garrett had previously won the NFC east. He passes with a big asterisk.
2018, 6th D...Garrett...Another big asterisk...pass
2021, 7th D...Though I'm not a believer...McCarthy has a track record
2022, 6th D...McCarthy...pass

Based On Requirements 1 & 2...These were the only Cowboys teams since the mid 90's with any hope or prayer of a Super Bowl...
1996*
1999
2003
2016*
2018*
2021
2022

Onto the next rule and filter.

 

[CowboyRoy]

If a top eight defense is a virtual requirement to win a Super Bowl...how many Cowboys teams since our last Super Bowl even meet criteria #1?

Cowboys Teams that Met Rule #1 of Champions - top 8 defensive ranking
1996, 3rd
1998, 3rd
1999, 5th
2003, 2nd
2009, 2nd
2016, 5th
2018, 6th
2021, 7th
2022, 6th

9 of 26 Cowboys team since our last Super Bowl passed Requirement #1

How are you rating them? Yards given up? If so, to me that is misleading. Teams with bad offenses like the Quincy Bong Carter years rated much higher because they couldnt score and everyone just ran on us.

 

[CCBoy]

#2 Super Bowl Requirement: An Established and Respected Head Coach with a Winning Pedigree

We continue filtering wheat and chaff, contender from pretender. What Cowboys team In recent memory had any serious shot all?

Consider the coaches who have won Super Bowls: It's virtually never their first rodeo. They must establish a winning pedigree and earn the trust of their players. They must refine their art. They must be leaders of men. This is the case with almost all Super Bowl winning coaches: Belichick, Lombardi, Reid, Arians, Carroll, Coughlin, Payton, Dungy, Cowher, Gruden, Vermeil, Landry, Shanahan, Johnson, Holmgren, Gibbs, Walsh.

A look at the recent Cowboys teams that managed to pass the first filter. Can they pass the second filter for head coaching?
1996, 3rd D...Switzer had won a Super Bowl '95 so he passes with a big asterisk (though I don't respect his work)
1998, 3rd D...Little known Chan Gailey from college ranks in his first try in NFL. Zero Super Bowl chance.
1999, 5th D...Chan has a winning year under his belt, so he (barely) passes for this season
2003, 2nd D...Bill Parcells, It's Bill...so an obvious win based solely on coaching skill
2009, 2nd D...Wade Phillips, camp cupcake and a history as a losing Head Coach. Fail.
2016, 5th D...We know his ilk and destiny, but Garrett had previously won the NFC east. He passes with a big asterisk.
2018, 6th D...Garrett...Another big asterisk...pass
2021, 7th D...Though I'm not a believer...McCarthy has a track record
2022, 6th D...McCarthy...pass

Based On Requirements 1 & 2...These were the only Cowboys teams since the mid 90's with any hope or prayer of a Super Bowl...
1996*
1999
2003
2016*
2018*
2021
2022

Onto the next rule and filter.

Good add, and we have some strong tendency indicators through your toil. Thanks.
Four of your indicators are within the past 7 seasons...and a good current addition to know.

 

[CowboyRoy]

1996, 3rd
1998, 3rd
1999, 5th
2003, 2nd
2009, 2nd
2016, 5th
2018, 6th
2021, 7th
2022, 6th

That matches up with this? The playoff seasons since 1996:


1996-Switzer
1998-Chan Gailey
1999-Chan Gailey
2003-Bill Parcells
2006-Bill Parcells
2007-Wade Phillips
2009-Wade Phillips
2014-Jason Garrett
2016-Jason Garrett
2018-Jason Garrett
2021-Mike McCarthy
2022-Mike McCarthy


I wonder what would be a similar look of the offense be as well...?

Nice matchup there.

 

[CowboyRoy]

#2 Super Bowl Requirement: An Established and Respected Head Coach with a Winning Pedigree

We continue filtering wheat and chaff, contender from pretender. What Cowboys team In recent memory had any serious shot all?

Consider the coaches who have won Super Bowls: It's virtually never their first rodeo. They must establish a winning pedigree and earn the trust of their players. They must refine their art. They must be leaders of men. This is the case with almost all Super Bowl winning coaches: Belichick, Lombardi, Reid, Arians, Carroll, Coughlin, Payton, Dungy, Cowher, Gruden, Vermeil, Landry, Shanahan, Johnson, Holmgren, Gibbs, Walsh.

A look at the recent Cowboys teams that managed to pass the first filter. Can they pass the second filter for head coaching?
1996, 3rd D...Switzer had won a Super Bowl '95 so he passes with a big asterisk (though I don't respect his work)
1998, 3rd D...Little known Chan Gailey from college ranks in his first try in NFL. Zero Super Bowl chance.
1999, 5th D...Chan has a winning year under his belt, so he (barely) passes for this season
2003, 2nd D...Bill Parcells, It's Bill...so an obvious win based solely on coaching skill
2009, 2nd D...Wade Phillips, camp cupcake and a history as a losing Head Coach. Fail.
2016, 5th D...We know his ilk and destiny, but Garrett had previously won the NFC east. He passes with a big asterisk.
2018, 6th D...Garrett...Another big asterisk...pass
2021, 7th D...Though I'm not a believer...McCarthy has a track record
2022, 6th D...McCarthy...pass

Based On Requirements 1 & 2...These were the only Cowboys teams since the mid 90's with any hope or prayer of a Super Bowl...
1996*
1999
2003
2016*
2018*
2021
2022

Onto the next rule and filter.

Buddy you better change all those Garretts to a big fail! You have to be kidding me!!! This is literally ruining all your hard work. MAYBE you could make a case for Parcells. THATS IT all the way up through Garrett. MM yes.

There is no ASTERISK. NO chance we were EVER winning a SB with the horrid Garrett.

Please fix the list not down to:

1999
2003
2021
2022

 

[CowboyRoy]

Good add, and we have some strong tendency indicators through your toil. Thanks.
Four of your indicators are within the past 7 seasons...and a good current addition to know.

Sadly his toil is being ruined by giving Garrett a pass as a championship caliber HC. LOL

Might be the biggest joke I have EVER heard. EVERY HC on that list is better than Garrett from Gailey to Wade.

 

[T-RO]

If McCarthy's advocates are correct: Cowboys are 2/2 on Super Bowl requirements for 2023.

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

this is going to devolve into another Dak thread. guaranteed..................................

 

[CCBoy]

this is going to devolve into another Dak thread. guaranteed..................................

Those individuals don't have enough insights to know when to jump in to kill the thread. Lock up is a very simple process.

 

[CowboyRoy]

If McCarthy's advocates are correct: Cowboys are 2/2 on Super Bowl requirements for 2023.

I believe you need to add one more requirement. If you want to continue your work, check on Oline rating. I bet that they are top 5 rated for most SB winners. Not sure how far that rating goes back.

 

[CowboyRoy]

this is going to devolve into another Dak thread. guaranteed..................................

And congrats on being the first to start it.

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

And congrats on being the first to start it.

 

[Vtwin]

this is going to devolve into another Dak thread. guaranteed..................................

The resolution to find the world ugly and bad has made the world ugly and bad.
Friedrich Nietzsche

 

[T-RO]

How are you rating them?

Points allowed...ranked against their 31 opponents in their respective year.

 

[T-RO]

The resolution to find the world ugly and bad has made the world ugly and bad.
Friedrich Nietzsche

I'm down on Nietzsche in most ways, but credit for referencing a smart guy and doing so in perfect context.

 

[T-RO]

We have a March Madness style Bracket...or to be more timely...a Wimbledon style bracket. (Go Djokovic!)

7 Cowboys teams of the past 28 years have past the preliminary first two rounds of filtering for possible Super Bowl legitimacy. Why did they crash? How about version 2023?