Thinking About The 8 Teams Ahead of Us

nyc;3864493 said:
Yeah, thats exactly the way I see it too. I *CAN* on the other hand seeing Buffalo pulling the trigger for two reasons. They need a QB and Cam would bring a lot of excitement to Buffalo fans.

Look at my top 9 mock above. Does that look reasonable in your opinion?

Those first couple of picks, IMO, hing on how Bowers heals. Right now, you got a guy who was not considered the Number 1 coming into the Combine but just prior to the combine, elevated into that top spot. Unfortunately for him, he is not healing quickly from his scope in January. If he doesn't heal quickly enough to be healthy in his Pro Day, then he probably doesn't test well. What happens then? I don't know that he would be the number 1 over all if he doesn't test well. Fairley was exceptional physically but he has issues regarding his motivation. Neither may be the number one guy just depending. I also think that Buffalo would consider Gabbert over Newton. He's a better passer, a comparable athlete and he has much better experience playing in cold weather. I see them taking Gabbert over Newton but IDK.

This year, it's a real crap shoot IMO. I don't know.
 
ABQCOWBOY;3864515 said:
Those first couple of picks, IMO, hing on how Bowers heals. Right now, you got a guy who was not considered the Number 1 coming into the Combine but just prior to the combine, elevated into that top spot. Unfortunately for him, he is not healing quickly from his scope in January. If he doesn't heal quickly enough to be healthy in his Pro Day, then he probably doesn't test well. What happens then? I don't know that he would be the number 1 over all if he doesn't test well. Fairley was exceptional physically but he has issues regarding his motivation. Neither may be the number one guy just depending. I also think that Buffalo would consider Gabbert over Newton. He's a better passer, a comparable athlete and he has much better experience playing in cold weather. I see them taking Gabbert over Newton but IDK.

This year, it's a real crap shoot IMO. I don't know.

I say Bowers or Fairley, but I think Carolina takes Fairley. Ron Rivera is the HC, his forte is the 4-3 and I think he has dreams of having Fairley be the next Warren Sapp. I think his ability to dominate the line of scrimmage overshadows his work ethic. Get him in the right state of mind, Fairley could be a star in this league. I think Rivera can do that for him.
 
Hostile;3864312 said:
Number 1...Ron Rivera comes to Carolina from the Chargers. He ran a 3-4 in San Diego, but Carolina was a 4-3 scheme. He has 4-3 experience at Chicago and Philly. I think the Panthers will stay a 4-3 scheme. Too many needs for a conversion. So I cannot see Quinn, Miller, or Dareus at number 1. To me they have to either go Bowers or Fairley or shock the world and take Cam Newton. Which is exactly what I would do if I were in Rivera's shoes. He has no QB to speak of. This year the number 1 pick is a gamble. When left with few options take the highest reward gamble. That is QB. Why Newton over Gabbart? Marketing. Newton is a great looking kid with charisma. He is the Heisman Trophy winner and he is Carolina's best choice. Cam Newton is the pick.

Anything is possible, but I highly, highly, highly doubt it. Claussen might not be highly thought of, but if they draft a QB with this pick, might as well cut him and he was a high 2nd round pick last season. They take Bowers here, wether they stay 4-3 or got 3-4. Worst case scenario, they suck again and they get the guy who was supposed to come out this year: Luck.

Having said that: I had a mock earlier on where they actually traded this pick to Cleveland because Bower himself might not be worth the 1st pick overall to them. Richardson is the Mike Brown of the NFC.

Number 2...Denver was the worst Defense in the NFL. John Fox goes from the worst team in the NFL to the 2nd worst. Does the 4-3 come with him? Is he already scrapping the 3-4? I think so. Therefore again I don't see Dareus, Quinn, or Miller. It is Fairley or Bowers here I think. With Champ Bailey back on board they need pressure on the QB. They only registered 23 sacks in 2010. They do get Dumervil back. Give the man some help. Da'Quan Bowers is the pick.

Not Bowers, but pretty much the same thing I'm reading. No D-line and you know Fox is going 4-3. It has to be Fairley.

Number 3...No doubt Buffalo was looking at Newton. Chan Gailey coached at the Senior Bowl The guy who stood out on his team, Von Miller. They could go QB and take Gabbart, but they need a pass rush in the worst way and Miller has shown Gailey he has what it takes. Here's the problem, their GM, Buddy Nix, talks too much. He wants a QB. He gets one despite a better option at pass rusher there. He may get a guy more polished than Newton, but the fact remains none of these guys are Luck. Blaine Gabbart is the pick.

Same as above. I'm reading the same tea leaf, but instead of Gabbart, I'm seeing Newton IF they choose to pass on Quinn, which is not a sure thing in my mind. I was thinking about this yesterday and it came to me: Buffalo doesn't really need Newton. They can get Robert Quinn in the 1st rnd and Colin Kaepernick, who's a less hyped version of Newton ( and might turn out to be the better QB in the long term ) in the 2nd round. Both are going to be projects anyways and either will be sitting behind Fitzpatrick next season, so might as well get the pass rusher who can help right away AND still come out with a very nice QB prospect. Kaepernick fits Gailey's offense as well as Newton.

Number 4...Marvin Lewis saved his job again. Now his OC is gone and Jay Gruden has arrived. The problem is his QB is leaving and there isn't a guy to take now. That is another reason why Buffalo took a 2nd QB so soon. They need a QB in round 2, but taking another QB in round 1 is silly. Luckily they have other solid needs. A. J. Green is the pick.

Carson leaving Cincy is not a sure thing. He still has 50 millions left in his contract, which not every team would want to assume ( even if he restructures it ), and it's not a sure thing that Cincy would let him go so easily after giving him the signing bonus they did. Yes, he's talking the talk, but let's see if he indeed walks out and opens up a whole new can of worm, as in Cincy asking for unused signing bonus money back ( cheap Mr. Brown ). Still, if they do get rid of Carson, they're going have a shot at either Newton or Gabbert ( at this point ). If they do keep Carson, absolutely Green or Julio Jones would be the pick here.

Number 5...I have no doubts whatsoever that the Cardinals want a pass rusher. Miller or Quinn? Von Miller is the pick.

Agreed. Although Newton migh be a temptation at this point if he's here.

Number 6...The Browns lost their NT. There's a NT ready.
Marcel Dareus is the pick.

They have a bigger need at the receiver position. I think this is Julio Jone's spot or Green's spot. Either way, this is THE prime spot for the Cowboys to move up if they feel they have to ( more on this in a bit ).

Number 7...San Francisco also needed a QB. I think they want Gabbart. With no shot at him they need to fill their next biggest need and that is pass rush. Robert Quinn is the pick.

No dice. They have to very solid OLBs in Manny Lawson and Ahmad Brooks and bigger needs elsewhere. No way Peterson gets past them, perhaps even disregarding wether Gabbert is here or not ( I don't believe they like Newton ).

Number 8...The Titans have got to fix their Defense and a guy who was once thought to be the overall #1 pick is there. Nick Fairley is the pick.

We're on the same page here, but instead of Fairley, I'm seeing Marcel Dareus. If Gabbert is here, though, he's their pick.

Hallelujah, look who magically has made it to number 9 because the teams ahead of us have bigger needs. I'm tired. Good night. I'll see how bad I get kicked for this in the morning.

I, too, don't find it out the realm of possibility that PP gets to #9. The keys for that to happen, though, are Buffalo, Cincy, Cleveland and SF. Contrary to the latest wishes in here, we don't want the QBs to go too early. We want to put the 49ers ( our main rivals once again ) in a tough spot and give them something to really thinking about in Gabbert. But even so, we have to be very careful here. We have to make sure somehow ( pay the FBI ? CIA ? NSA ? NASA ? ) that the 49ers are indeed done with Alex Smith and will be taking a QB if available.

Still, it would just be too big of a gamble for me, so I wouldn't even get to that point. As soon as Cincy makes their pick, I'm on the horn with Cleveland finishing up the touches of a deal who's ground work I've been laying for weeks now. Yes, as of April or even mid March, I'd be talking with them through back channels trying to get an idea if they're interested in moving back and what the price would be. We have a good relation with the organization as a whole and Holmgren in particular, so there shouldn't be many obstacles ( other than the price ). Don't discount the possibility of Holmgren wanting to stick it to SF after being passed over for the HC job.

If I want PP badly, and I do, I'm going to go get him. I'm not going to wait around and play silly games or even allow the possibility of HUGE, out of the blue, surprises such as the Titans taken him ( if SF doesn't ), or even the Texans moving up ahead of us from #11 and stealing him from under our noses ( you know Wade would simply adore that and the Texans overall would call it a winning season just on that move because of their Cowboys envy ).
 
To all who disagree with Newton at #1 overall. So do I.

But look at my point. There is no consensus overall #1 pick since Luck stepped out. Each possible guy is a gamble with the exception of Peterson and I do not see a CB going #1 overall. It just does not happen in the NFL despite their value.

When the chips are all equal, bet the one with the highest upside and no one can tell me QB isn't the highest upside if you hit it.
 
Link.

I decided to look something up. No DB, neither Cornerback nor Safety, has ever been drafted #1 overall. Safeties have generally gone higher than CBs. The highest drafted DB was Safety Eric Turner who was #2 overall in his Draft and several CBs have gone #3 overall. The most recent one was Shawn Springs in 1997.

In the last 10 years (2000 - 2010) only 7 CBs have gone in the top 10, the highest was Terence Newman at #5.

Deion Sanders went #5 in his Draft and I think there should be a law that no CB goes higher than Deion so that Patrick Peterson is within trade range of us at #6.

:p:

Here's another cool fact I did not know. The first ever true DB drafted was Tom Landry in 1947. Prior to that guys were drafted as Backs and played Offense and Defense. The next true DB drafted was Don Shula in 1951.

Kind of cool huh?
 
Buffalo not gonna take Gabbert, they take either Peterson or Newton. If not Cincy takes him next pick. No chance he drops out of top 4. None.
 
Let's assume that theres no new CBA by the draft.

There could be such a big impact with teams reaching for guys espcially qb's. Indeed if this was a normal football offseason you might see a number of these guy's dealt to qb needy teams Kolb, Mcnabb,Palmer,Orton, Young and maybe even matt flynn or brian hoyer hey i would take either over charlie whitehurst.

This means cam newton at 1 isnt crazy nor is gabbert at 3 or mallet at 10 (based on the skins moves the past few years you can not argue you lost the right to). In a normal year maybe.. maybe 1 of those guy's go top 10.

Just my opinion but i think teams will draft for "need" over BPA at least early not knowing what and who or when a guy will be available in FA .
 
casmith07;3864431 said:
Quick, someone call ESPN and tell them that Patrick Peterson's feet smell funny, or that his mom maybe, kind of, we-aren't-sure, we think was a prostitute.
I've been trying to plant that seed for months.

No luck. :(
 
Randy White;3864557 said:
No dice. They have to very solid OLBs in Manny Lawson and Ahmad Brooks and bigger needs elsewhere. No way Peterson gets past them, perhaps even disregarding wether Gabbert is here or not ( I don't believe they like Newton ).
Lawson and Brooks are terrible. Lawson's career best in sacks is only 6.5 I believe. Brooks is around there as well. They absolutely need a pass rushing threat. Justin Smith led that team in sacks. A DE led his 3-4 team in sacks. I follow the 49ers quite a bit, and their entire defense is garbage besides Willis and Justin Smith. Even Franklin had a down year.
 
I think theres a good chance he makes it to 6 but at that point w/ the 49ers looming and the threat of someone else trading ahead of us wed have to jump.

At that point it depends on the negotitaions. Weve faired pretty well w/ the Browns lately so hopefully its not a bending over. I think a 3rd rounder and change is fair. If they are asking for a 2nd I dont think Jerry does it. (One downside is that we might have to recoup that 3rd by trading down in the 2nd and thus losing out on Wiz)

Holmgren likes big receivers so hopefully they feel confident Julio Jones will be there at 9.
 
Hostile;3864599 said:
To all who disagree with Newton at #1 overall. So do I.

But look at my point. There is no consensus overall #1 pick since Luck stepped out. Each possible guy is a gamble with the exception of Peterson and I do not see a CB going #1 overall. It just does not happen in the NFL despite their value.

When the chips are all equal, bet the one with the highest upside and no one can tell me QB isn't the highest upside if you hit it.

Newton to Carolina has been picking up a fair amount fo steam in this neck of the woods since the Combine. Seems that the names thrown around the most are Fairley (still) and Newton.

I'm just saying.
 
Joe Rod;3864779 said:
Newton to Carolina has been picking up a fair amount fo steam in this neck of the woods since the Combine. Seems that the names thrown around the most are Fairley (still) and Newton.

I'm just saying.

Maybe Carolina is looking to trade back and get someone like Buffalo to jump to #1 for Newton.

I think Buffalo's pick is the highest Newton can go. (if they jump to #1, then he could go at #1)
 
I just don't see Peterson going before #6. You have 3 teams who need a QB, possibly 4 if you include the Cardinals, and they need pass rush badly. If he makes it to 6, I think we move up.
 
Hostile;3864796 said:
I just don't see Peterson going before #6. You have 3 teams who need a QB, possibly 4 if you include the Cardinals, and they need pass rush badly. If he makes it to 6, I think we move up.

There aren't 4 QBs. If those teams decide not to take Peterson, then they probably trade back and someone trades up. Teams know the Cowboys covet Peterson, they will jump ahead.

I just don't see the Cowboys getting Peterson here without way overpaying. By that I mean Cowboys trade up to and probably above #6.

With Tyron Smith on the board, the Cowboys can afford not to overpay for Peterson.
 
nyc;3864805 said:
There aren't 4 QBs. If those teams decide not to take Peterson, then they probably trade back and someone trades up. Teams know the Cowboys covet Peterson, they will jump ahead.

I just don't see the Cowboys getting Peterson here without way overpaying. By that I mean Cowboys trade up to and probably above #6.

With Tyron Smith on the board, the Cowboys can afford not to overpay for Peterson.
I didn't say there were four QBs. I said there are four teams who need a QB. They are Carolina, Buffalo, Cincy, and Arizona. There are two though. That takes 2 options out of the way. The other three teams all have major needs on the DL too.

I cannot see Peterson going before #6.
 
Hostile;3864599 said:
When the chips are all equal, bet the one with the highest upside and no one can tell me QB isn't the highest upside if you hit it.

You mean the highest return as a position because I don't think Newton has the highest ceiling or upside in this draft.

The problem with that scenario is that if Carolina doesn't hit with Newton, they're going to be a huge trouble, particularly with Richardson as the owner who's a tight wad. The safest pick is Bower, and since the QB himself is not overwhelming anybody, that's too big of a risk.
 
Nightshade;3864871 said:
I hope Denver doesn't like the idea of Peterson opposite Champ Bailey.

lol, the only people that don't like that idea are the other 31 teams. :laugh2:
 
Hostile;3864312 said:
Newton is a great looking kid

Just curious, what exactly do you mean by this? :p

Also, I could make an argument for every team from 1-8 selecting Peterson, save maybe Tennessee. Everyone else is fair game.
 

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