This article will sober you up for the experts mock drafts in Feb

[Macnalty]

"For this exercise, I chose 5 experts from 4 media outlets: ESPN, CBS, FOX, and Sports Illustrated. I then found mock drafts done by those experts at a time somewhere in between last year's Super Bowl and the NFL Combine. ESPN, CBS, and FOX all carry NFL games on their networks, and SI has been around forever, so they seemed like logical choices. The experts for each media outlet who did mock drafts in the above time-frame were as follows:

• Mel Kiper, ESPN

• Todd McShay, ESPN

• Pete Prisco, CBS

• Peter Schrager, FOX

• Don Banks, Sports Illustrated

The level of inaccuracy in their February 2013 mock drafts was staggering. That's not to goof on those guys, who are all knowledgeable. But they're predicting without knowing how free agency will play out, or how well players will perform at the Combine.


Mock drafts are fun, but they are absurdly inaccurate. Just know that if the mock draft you're looking at is anything like the 5 listed above, there's only a 2.5% chance they got the pick right for your team.

...not that I'd do any better."
http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/...t-you-read-today-was-insanely-inaccurate.html

 

[Common Sense]

Most "mocks" at this stage are actually just wish lists.

 

[Hoofbite]

Is this supposed to be news?

It's like pointing out that someone incorrectly predicted the ending of movie that they have seen half of.

 

[dalboy]

They can't predict trades which always shakes up the draft. I still like to look at their mock drafts to see their evaluation of the players and see around what area they think the players will go.

 

[tm1119]

How accurate is any mock draft at any time past the top 10 picks or so? I highly doubt trying to predict picks 15-32 ahead of time is much more than a 2.5% chance for any given pick. Too many mathematical possibilities to think that anybody could correctly predict the picks. I always read mocks more as a guide for the general area a player is supposed to be picked.

 

[jobberone]

Gosselin is not bad with this but I don't think anyone is predictive until closer to the draft when some get inside info. After the combine you can get a bit better idea.

 

[arglebargle]

Doing mocks now is just a matter of filling up downtime. Talking to hear the talk.

Of course, that doesn't stop even the published magazines from putting out so called 'draft issues' before even the combine numbers are in, much less free agency moves.

 

[burmafrd]

all mocks are a joke and all are only a 'look at me' excercise.

 

[Macnalty]

I agree most are a joke at this time of year but to see the percentage at 2.5% makes it hit home and I am not in agreement that these five guys are five of the best..

 

[xwalker]

all mocks are a joke and all are only a 'look at me' excercise.

Mocks for guys like Kiper are an iterative process, IMO.

He just throws something against the wall for his 1st mock. Once it's published, he gets feedback from contacts that he has on teams and other various sources like retired football people or real football people that are now in the media.

Once he get feedback from version 1, he throws out version 2 and repeats the cycle.

 

[waving monkey]

it starts the process of putting the players in the general area for me to [as previously termed]
make up my wish list