CFZ Thoughts for the beginning of the regular season

[JD_KaPow]

People say this all the time, and it just isn’t true. Point differential in the regular season is the single strongest predictor of postseason success there is, even more so than regular season wins or what seed you are in your conference.

For perspective, the team with the #1 or #2 best point differential has participated in 49 of 57 Super Bowls and won 32 of them. No team with the #1 point differential has ever been eliminated prior to the divisional round of the playoffs, and only two teams with a top-3 point differential have ever missed the playoffs.

Style points ABSOLUTELY matter because they are the strongest indicator of overall team quality.

Both matter.

Yes, point differential is a better predictor of future performance than W-L record. But in such a short season, the performance in close games can make a huge difference in playoff seeding or making the playoffs at all. Banking wins also buys you margin of error to get through a rough patch (because of injuries or whatever).

If every game you play is close, you're not that good regardless of your final record.
Conversely, if you destroy a bunch of teams but purely by luck go 2-4 instead of 4-2 in your close games, you may find yourself without a bye week and having to play on the road in the playoffs.

 

[Cowboys5217]

There was a guy on Twitter who broke down early season success comparing teams that played their starters in preseason vs those that didn’t going back a decade. There was absolutely no correlation whatsoever.

He didn't look very far then as we have a direct correlation on the Dallas Cowboys right now. We have a double digit winning capable team and yet we struggle to win openers. 1-4 in our last 5.

Also, if this were generally true then practically no team would play starters in the preseason, and yet that isn't the case at all. Not even close.

Link me this study too if you would. I'd like to see the methodologies used. It sounds very suspect such as not counting starters who only played a quarter or so in preseason.

 

[JD_KaPow]

He didn't look very far then as we have a direct correlation on the Dallas Cowboys right now. We have a double digit winning capable team and yet we struggle to win openers. 1-4 in our last 5.

Also, if this were generally true then practically no team would play starters in the preseason, and yet that isn't the case at all. Not even close.

Link me this study too if you would. I'd like to see the methodologies used. It sounds very suspect such as not counting starters who only played a quarter or so in preseason.

It takes a long time for teams to react to information and change the ways. The percentage of preseason snaps taken by starters has been declining steadily for years now. So yes, teams are evolving in the direction of not playing their starters in the preseason.

And no, anecdotal data from 5 Cowboys games doesn't constitute a study of all games (I'd like to see it too if it exists). And anyway, even the data you cite doesn't tell your story. Let's actually look at the last 5 seasons...

In 2018, Dallas lost the opener...but the starters did play in the preseason.
In 2019, Dallas won the opener.
In 2020, Dallas lost the opener to a much better team (the Rams) on their way to a 6-10 season (not "double digit winning").
In 2021, they were big underdogs and lost the opener on the road to the defending Super Bowl champions by 2 points, and the difference in that game came from the one unit that actually did play in the preseason: the kicking team (Zuerlein missed 3 kicks).
In 2022, they stunk up the joint. This is the only one that lines up with your story.

 

[tunahelper]

After a long winter, spring and summer; after free agency, the draft, mini-camps, training camp and preseason games…FINALLY the regular season is nearly here. The real football games that matter are upon us. And I have big hopes for this year’s team.

Here’s some things I try to remind myself at the beginning of each regular season:

• It usually takes at least 4 games to get a good read on any team. Don’t judge an entire season on game one. Win or lose.
• Champions are not crowned in September. So if we have a really hot start or a bad one, keep that in mind.
• ”Style points” and margins of victory don’t matter in the NFL. It’s always only about wins and losses.
• It takes an entire TEAM to win a championship.
• Talent alone is never enough to win a championship. It takes talent of course, along with good coaching, player development, mixed with mental and physical toughness to be a championship caliber team.
• ALL great teams must overcome some kind of adversity. Adversity happens every year. It could be an injury, a bad call, bad luck, a rough stretch in the schedule. Whatever. The best teams are mentally tough enough to handle rough seas because they will come.
• Don’t look at the schedule and pick wins and losses. Every NFL team can beat you. And we can likewise beat any team on our schedule.
• There are surprise teams every year. A team we thought was good won’t be. And another we thought was easy will be tough. That’s the NFL!

I‘m excited to see another season of Cowboys football. Any other reminders you have?
Here’s hoping Lombardi #6 will be raised!

Going to be a fun year. Hopefully the team plays to its strength, which is the defense.

 

[75boyz]

Crayton and a helmet catch…..ugghh

Exactly, Ugghh.
Heck, if I think on it long enough it still might cause me some anxiety to be honest.
Lol

 

[stuckindc]

Exactly, Ugghh.
Heck, if I think on it long enough it still might cause me some anxiety to be honest.
Lol

That division game bothers me almost as much as the 94 NFCCG

 

[Risen Star]

Here’s hoping Lombardi #6 will be raised!

I'd want it to happen just for the hilarity of seeing someone hand the trophy off to Deuce.

 

[GMO415]

After a long winter, spring and summer; after free agency, the draft, mini-camps, training camp and preseason games…FINALLY the regular season is nearly here. The real football games that matter are upon us. And I have big hopes for this year’s team.

Here’s some things I try to remind myself at the beginning of each regular season:

• It usually takes at least 4 games to get a good read on any team. Don’t judge an entire season on game one. Win or lose.
• Champions are not crowned in September. So if we have a really hot start or a bad one, keep that in mind.
• ”Style points” and margins of victory don’t matter in the NFL. It’s always only about wins and losses.
• It takes an entire TEAM to win a championship.
• Talent alone is never enough to win a championship. It takes talent of course, along with good coaching, player development, mixed with mental and physical toughness to be a championship caliber team.
• ALL great teams must overcome some kind of adversity. Adversity happens every year. It could be an injury, a bad call, bad luck, a rough stretch in the schedule. Whatever. The best teams are mentally tough enough to handle rough seas because they will come.
• Don’t look at the schedule and pick wins and losses. Every NFL team can beat you. And we can likewise beat any team on our schedule.
• There are surprise teams every year. A team we thought was good won’t be. And another we thought was easy will be tough. That’s the NFL!

I‘m excited to see another season of Cowboys football. Any other reminders you have?
Here’s hoping Lombardi #6 will be raised!

Bullet, you see the SB champion teams playing their starters a little bit in the preseason, so they don't have to use the first four regular season games to gel. That's how DAL could fall behind quick.