Time of Possession vs. Number of Possessions

[waldoputty]

There has been a lot of discussion about our time of possession, and whether that is important.

However, is there any stats out there on the number of possessions?
With long time consuming drives, I have got to think that we are reducing the number of possessions in the game.
That goes beyond keeping the defense rested.

With reduced number of possessions, I have got to believe that protects our defense?
For example, if an opponent scores 40% of the time, then reducing their number of drives by 10% will reduce their expected score by 10%?

 

[AdamJT13]

There has been a lot of discussion about our time of possession, and whether that is important.

However, is there any stats out there on the number of possessions?
With long time consuming drives, I have got to think that we are reducing the number of possessions in the game.
That goes beyond keeping the defense rested.

With reduced number of possessions, I have got to believe that protects our defense?
For example, if an opponent scores 40% of the time, then reducing their number of drives by 10% will reduce their expected score by 10%?

Yes, there are stats on the number of possessions.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/drivestatsoff

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/drivestatsdef


There also are pace stats --

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/pacestats


Note that our offense plays at the second-slowest pace (which has been typical), and our opponents have played at the fastest pace. Given that pace is the No. 1 factor in determining time of possession, it's no wonder that we lead in overall TOP by such a large margin.

 

[percyhoward]

There has been a lot of discussion about our time of possession, and whether that is important.

However, is there any stats out there on the number of possessions?
With long time consuming drives, I have got to think that we are reducing the number of possessions in the game.
That goes beyond keeping the defense rested.

With reduced number of possessions, I have got to believe that protects our defense?
For example, if an opponent scores 40% of the time, then reducing their number of drives by 10% will reduce their expected score by 10%?

While your opponent has fewer drives, so do you. Thereby reducing your own expected score by the same amount.

 

[Redball Express]

There has been a lot of discussion about our time of possession, and whether that is important.

However, is there any stats out there on the number of possessions?
With long time consuming drives, I have got to think that we are reducing the number of possessions in the game.
That goes beyond keeping the defense rested.

With reduced number of possessions, I have got to believe that protects our defense?
For example, if an opponent scores 40% of the time, then reducing their number of drives by 10% will reduce their expected score by 10%?

It's not one or the other..

one exists becuz the other exists..

Sort of like Superman and Bizzaro World.

Matter vs. anti-matter..

both must exist if there is to be balence in the Universe (Carl Sagan)

 

[Idgit]

There has been a lot of discussion about our time of possession, and whether that is important.

However, is there any stats out there on the number of possessions?
With long time consuming drives, I have got to think that we are reducing the number of possessions in the game.
That goes beyond keeping the defense rested.

With reduced number of possessions, I have got to believe that protects our defense?
For example, if an opponent scores 40% of the time, then reducing their number of drives by 10% will reduce their expected score by 10%?

Yeah, this is one of the reasons why points/drive data is better for measuring effectiveness of an offense/defense.

Basically, you need to score at a faster rate than the other guys to win. Who has the ball longer doesn't so much, otherwise, as having it more doesn't really help you score at a higher rate.

ToP is useful when you've already managed to outscore your opponents, of course, and just want to limit the remaining possessions to keep the advantage.

 

[boysfanindc]

TOP by the offense is a good thing for the reason mentioned, as long as you are putting it in the EZ after your 14 play drive.

 

[waldoputty]

While your opponent has fewer drives, so do you. Thereby reducing your own expected score by the same amount.

Right, but it does 'protect' your defense statistically while 'hurting' your offense statistically.
It also protects your defense in reality because they are playing while more fresh.
On the other hand, if you run well and have long drives, you are able to tire out the opponent's defense.

 

[AdamJT13]

It also protects your defense in reality because they are playing while more fresh.

This is vastly overblown (in relation to time of possession), for many reasons. Not the least of which is that the defense isn't resting only while the game clock is moving. Or that offenses often try to "wear out" the defense by playing FASTER, not slower.

 

[waldoputty]

This is vastly overblown (in relation to time of possession), for many reasons. Not the least of which is that the defense isn't resting only while the game clock is moving. Or that offenses often try to "wear out" the defense by playing FASTER, not slower.

TOP is generally high for a team that runs a lot and runs well
The plays generally go for less yardage than passing, thereby requiring more plays and time to score.
TOP is increased by running because the clock generally does not stop between plays, which is different than when you have incompletions.
You are effectively shortening the game.
So the defense should see less plays and be more fresh.
While the other team's defense would still see a lot of plays because you are going for long multi-play drives.

Essentially, these factors should increase the offense's probability to score per drive but decrease the defense's probability of getting scored on per drive

 

[Ken]

Yes, there are stats on the number of possessions.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/drivestatsoff

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/drivestatsdef


There also are pace stats --

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/pacestats


Note that our offense plays at the second-slowest pace (which has been typical), and our opponents have played at the fastest pace. Given that pace is the No. 1 factor in determining time of possession, it's no wonder that we lead in overall TOP by such a large margin.

Doesn't Philly actually lead TOP?

 

[Ken]

TOP, if coupled with scoring, is important if your defense can keep the other teams offense in check a few times throughout the game. Preferably 3 and out them...

A long drive that ends in a score demoralizes a defense and raises the pressure on an offense. It is enhanced if coupled with Short drives by the opposing teams offense.

JMO, not based in any kind of stats or fact.

 

[theogt]

What I've learned from this thread is that if you score more points than the other team, you win.

 

[percyhoward]

Right, but it does 'protect' your defense statistically while 'hurting' your offense statistically.

If you're saying that people who don't know any better could end up overrating a defense and underrating an offense, absolutely. It happens a lot. But that's just people being lazy and looking at the wrong stats.

It also protects your defense in reality because they are playing while more fresh.
On the other hand, if you run well and have long drives, you are able to tire out the opponent's defense.

I'd say "in theory" rather than "in reality." Last year, the Cowboys' offense led the NFL in TOP per drive for the first 3 quarters of games, but the Dallas defense's worst quarter by far was the 4th.

 

[percyhoward]

What I've learned from this thread is that if you score more points than the other team, you win.

And win more often than you would by simply playing keepaway.

Dallas TOP per drive
2014 3:01 (1st)
2015 2:59 (2nd)
2016 3:37 (1st)

Points per drive
2014 2.62 (2nd)
2015 1.56 (27th)
2016 2.59 (4th)

 

[AdamJT13]

TOP is generally high for a team that runs a lot and runs well

That's a total fallacy. TOP and how often or how well a team rushes do not correlate highly. The highest correlations are pace of play, third-down conversion rate and completion percentage.

 

[AdamJT13]

Doesn't Philly actually lead TOP?

You are correct. We lead in average offensive TOP, not total TOP.

 

[percyhoward]

Doesn't Philly actually lead TOP?

They lead in net TOP per drive (defense 1st, offense 2nd). Cowboys are 2nd (defense 8th, offense 1st).

 

[waldoputty]

That's a total fallacy. TOP and how often or how well a team rushes do not correlate highly. The highest correlations are pace of play, third-down conversion rate and completion percentage.

I think 'running well' is incorporated into 3rd down conversion rate. I would suspect 'running well' is also incorporated into completion percentage given the same quarterback.

 

[AdamJT13]

I think 'running well' is incorporated into 3rd down conversion rate. I would suspect 'running well' is also incorporated into completion percentage given the same quarterback.

Nope. "Running well" has NO correlation with third-down conversion rate or completion percentage.

 

[waldoputty]

If you're saying that people who don't know any better could end up overrating a defense and underrating an offense, absolutely. It happens a lot. But that's just people being lazy and looking at the wrong stats.

I'd say "in theory" rather than "in reality." Last year, the Cowboys' offense led the NFL in TOP per drive for the first 3 quarters of games, but the Dallas defense's worst quarter by far was the 4th.

Right.
There are some really poor stats.

Last year the offense was so poor that opponents could play us conservatively and still win.
That is because we could simply not score.
I am not sure how you capture that situation in a statistic.