Trade Down is Imminent

[ZiggyZ.]

I have to believe that Bill will definitely tradedown in order to stockpile picks. I can't believe that he's happy with only 6 picks in what's being called a deep draft class.

Okay, so because of the Kenyon Coleman signing, Dallas lost a 6th. And Drew Henson cost a 3rd. But Dallas picks up a 1st from the Bills. So it shakes down like this:

2 picks in the 1st (11 and 20)
1 pick in the 2nd
1 pick in the 4th
1 pick in the 5th
1 pick in the 7th

My guess is that our second pick in Round 1 (20th overall) will be traded. Why? First, a lot of teams feel that the 20's of Round 1 force you to draft 2nd-round talent but pay them 1st-round money, meaning poor value. Think Ekuban.

So unless one of the Boys top-10 guys happens to fall there, that pick is gone.

Also, keep in mind that Bill seems to enjoy picking later in the draft; all three of the 7th round picks from last year gave lots of effort and all contributed.

Anyway, I can't wait for the draft. Hopefully Bill can rebuild this baby with 7-8 great picks.

 

[Dayton Cowboy]

I'm with you on wishing it would be April 23 already..

I think most would tend to agree if we trade one of the first round picks that it will be #20.. I would hope to pick up a high trade for say a fairly high second round and third rounder.. Not sure that will happen though

 

[trickblue]

Nice first post ZiggyZ... good rationalizations...

to the Zone...

 

[BrAinPaiNt]

I have to believe that Bill will definitely tradedown in order to stockpile picks. I can't believe that he's happy with only 6 picks in what's being called a deep draft class.

Okay, so because of the Kenyon Coleman signing, Dallas lost a 6th. And Drew Henson cost a 3rd. But Dallas picks up a 1st from the Bills. So it shakes down like this:

2 picks in the 1st (11 and 20)
1 pick in the 2nd
1 pick in the 4th
1 pick in the 5th
1 pick in the 7th

My guess is that our second pick in Round 1 (20th overall) will be traded. Why? First, a lot of teams feel that the 20's of Round 1 force you to draft 2nd-round talent but pay them 1st-round money, meaning poor value. Think Ekuban.

So unless one of the Boys top-10 guys happens to fall there, that pick is gone.

Also, keep in mind that Bill seems to enjoy picking later in the draft; all three of the 7th round picks from last year gave lots of effort and all contributed.

Anyway, I can't wait for the draft. Hopefully Bill can rebuild this baby with 7-8 great picks.

Nice first post.

Also it is thought that we will get two 6th round picks as comp picks, although we will not be able to trade those picks.

 

[spindoc]

Also it is thought that we will get two 6th round picks as comp picks, although we will not be able to trade those picks.

Great, we can draft more kick returners!

I would like the Round 1 trade-down strategy if we had a better drafting record in those rounds. Last year's 2nd and 3rd Round picks still make me wince... everything between Round 2 and Round 5 was poor. Thus, I'm a BPA believer because we have been decent in the First Round...lately.

 

[Phrozen Phil]

The challenge trading down lies in your own argument for doing it. Teams may not see value in trading up as the talent ( as you so eloquently put it ) is second round talent for first round money. It will depend if a team sees a player that they believe is undervalued at that point of the draft and that fits well into their plans for the coming year. Last year, the Bills decided that JP Losman was that player and we have two picks in the first round this year as a result. As the draft is viewed as "deep", but not top heavy like other years, there is less incentive to trade up overall. Consider this as well in your draft strategy: The Cowboys have have added four new people to the mix in Dallas and they are about to add six more. Granted, the veteran players have a shorter learning curve to adjusting to things here, but there is an adjustment period. Add at least six rookies to the mix and you need to consider how this will affect team chemistry. With the additions of the four vets, do you look to maximize the impact of two quality first rounders, or do you look to develop depth ? My sense is that this team needs straters to improve their overall level of performance and that we need to hit a home run on our first three picks. As a result, it maybe less likely that a trade down would occur.

Having said this, if Parcells and company receive an offer like last year, and if the talent is level at the #20 poin of the draft, then we might see some action.

 

[ZiggyZ.]

Good points. I wouldn't be suprised if someone IS willing to jump up and snag Dallas' 20th pick because there is a run on a position.

For instance, let's just say that between 11-19 we see both Cody's, Spears, and Erasmus get drafted. This could create a DE run where teams start scrambling for Tuck or Pollack. Honestly, with the depth of talent, this scenario could easily happen with CBs or LBs, too.

At the same time, Dallas could be one of those teams scrambling for a DE, since they desperately need a few...though hopefully the off-season training program will do wonders for Kalen Thorton.

Anyway, I don't think there's a snowball's chance of Big Bill trading up; he has far too many holes and far too few picks.


One other interesting issue: If Dallas should receive an offer like they did last year from the Bills, that is, an offer of a first-round pick NEXT year, do they take it?

This is BP's 3rd year of a 4-year contract, and he obviously wants to win NOW. So what do JJ and BP do should they get that offer again?

Peace.

 

[Phrozen Phil]

One other interesting issue: If Dallas should receive an offer like they did last year from the Bills, that is, an offer of a first-round pick NEXT year, do they take it?

This is BP's 3rd year of a 4-year contract, and he obviously wants to win NOW. So what do JJ and BP do should they get that offer again?

Peace.

It would depend on who's left on the board at the time of the draft offer and the profile of next year's draft. It could be argued that several high-profile Juniors chose not to come out this year,( Leinhart, etc) making next year's draft look moer attractive. If, however, a real stud slips in this year's draft to our pick, then we might be better off to just say no. Much will depend on if a "run" as you described it, takes place. This has been one of the more unpredictable drafts in years, and the picks in the teens to late draft are very hard to figure. One team that I think will trade up will be the Eagles.