Trade Down Question

[austintodallas]

Actually a couple questions for you draft pros...

If we were able to trade down into the latter stage of the 1st round, what team do you feel is the most likely trade partner (who would covet a pick at 18 the most)?

and...

What additional pick(s) would you expect in return (over and above their late 1st rounder of course)?

 

[cobra]

Well, it depends on a multitude of variables. The first being how well the first 17 picks go.

Remember, we can't force a team to trade with us so that we can trade down. A team has to want to trade up for some reason.

So the first precondition is that a team wants to trade up. There has to be some value there that they really, really want, and that usually entails a player falling.

What could that be? It is unlikely that anyone is going to trade up for anything other than the "elite" skill positions: QB, RB, CB, WR.

I don't think a team will trade up for OT, LB, DE, TE, S because the value isn't there due to the depth. There aren't going to be any players there at those positions that are worth jumping up for and giving away another pick.

So some potential things I see: Cutler, LenDale White, Santonio Holmes, Jimmy Williams fall to us. I can envision a scenario where a team really would like to get up there and snatch up any other those players who have a "drop off" to the next person at their position. Realistically, I think it would have to be Cutler or Holmes.

Holmes is the clear-cut top WR, and a team might be willing to jump up and get him---teams like the Broncos, Bears or Jaguars.

Cutler is the #3 and there is a drop off after him. If he falls to us at 18, I think the Bears might be willing to jump up and get him to make sure a team like, say, the Bucs don't get him.

So, to trade down, the draft has to fall in a way where a player slides to us that a team below us wants to trade up for them.

If that happens, how much we get is probably defined by those pick value charts. If we trade down into the late first, we might get a 1st and a 2nd because the 2nd round pick will be late too and therefore not much of a value. I think, realistically, we could trade down and pick up a 3rd or 4th.

Based on your draft position and the way board is deep but with few stars at the 18th pick, I don't see us trading down unless someone falls to us.

 

[JonCJG]

Maybe a team that feels like the window is closing and that they need an impact player asap before the window shuts completely. I could see the colts trading up and giving up at least a 2nd in addition to their 1st to grab an impact Linbacker or DB that falls in the draft. They are the only team I can see moving up at this point.

Any team with 2 # 1's might also so denver moving up is possible as is the Deadskins. Little boy Snyder might give up next years number 1, this years number two and a late round draft pick. You never know with that team. He might even trade an asst. coach

 

[StanleySpadowski]

I said in another thread that I think Carolina might become a probable trading partner. They're at 27 with a significant "need" at RB. With Bush, Williams, White and Maroney being probable first round RBs, they may get nervous if three are gone by the time 18 comes up.

Their first #27 and second #59 fits within the parameters of most draft charts. Altough next year's picks factor a round down from this year's picks, I don't see them selling a first this year and a first next year to their fans.

I also could understand Dallas dropping out of the first entirely. A team at the top of round two may be willing to give that pick and a first next year if the right player is there at 18. I'm thinking the Texans may make a move for another first to pair an OT with Bush if there's a run on OT early.

 

[austintodallas]

Their first #27 and second #59 fits within the parameters of most draft charts. Altough next year's picks factor a round down from this year's picks, I don't see them selling a first this year and a first next year to their fans.

What about throwing in Glover as a sweetener to get this type of deal done with say a Carolina or a Denver?

Our 1st this year + Glover for someone's late 1st + 2nd (both this year).

 

[StanleySpadowski]

What about throwing in Glover as a sweetener to get this type of deal done with say a Carolina or a Denver?

Our 1st this year + Glover for someone's late 1st + 2nd (both this year).

There's no need to throw Glover in. From 27 down they fit inside the parameters.

 

[austintodallas]

There's no need to throw Glover in. From 27 down they fit inside the parameters.

Sounds good to me.

 

[neosapien23]

I said in another thread that I think Carolina might become a probable trading partner. They're at 27 with a significant "need" at RB. With Bush, Williams, White and Maroney being probable first round RBs, they may get nervous if three are gone by the time 18 comes up.

Their first #27 and second #59 fits within the parameters of most draft charts. Altough next year's picks factor a round down from this year's picks, I don't see them selling a first this year and a first next year to their fans.

I also could understand Dallas dropping out of the first entirely. A team at the top of round two may be willing to give that pick and a first next year if the right player is there at 18. I'm thinking the Texans may make a move for another first to pair an OT with Bush if there's a run on OT early.

I think Seattle might also need that pick. I don't think Alexander will be a Seahawk next season.

 

[Clove]

Sounds good to me.

Watch this strategy.
Trade your 18th pick to New Orleans for their early 2nd, 4th, and next years 1st.

Then turn around and trade Ellis and your next years number 1 to Denver for their 22nd pick. So that gives you a 22, an early 2nd, mid 2nd, 3rd,early 4th, 5th,7th.

You have 4 first day picks, and your 2nd would be like a late late 1st round selection . You still have Glover that you could trade straight up for a 4th, and next year you still have all of your picks.

 

[neosapien23]

Watch this strategy.
Trade your 18th pick to New Orleans for their early 2nd, 4th, and next years 1st.

Then turn around and trade Ellis and your next years number 1 to Denver for their 22nd pick. So that gives you a 22, an early 2nd, mid 2nd, 3rd,early 4th, 5th,7th.

You have 4 first day picks, and your 2nd would be like a late late 1st round selection . You still have Glover that you could trade straight up for a 4th, and next year you still have all of your picks.

I like it, but Glover has no trade value. His salary is too high. I think the Cowboys will cut him and Larry Allen before FA so they don't have to pay the roster bonuses.

 

[Clove]

I like it, but Glover has no trade value. His salary is too high. I think the Cowboys will cut him and Larry Allen before FA so they don't have to pay the roster bonuses.

You at least try to trade Glover, and if no one bites, then release him. Jerry is being real hush hush about Ellis and Glover, and I'll bet that strategy came from BP.

BP is the worlds greatest at not showing his hand, and he's taught Jones this.

 

[neosapien23]

You at least try to trade Glover, and if no one bites, then release him. Jerry is being real hush hush about Ellis and Glover, and I'll bet that strategy came from BP.

BP is the worlds greatest at not showing his hand, and he's taught Jones this.

Glover is due a 1.7 roster bonus on March 1. Free Agency does not start until March 5, I think. That means we have to trade him quick. If a trade is not reached, Dallas will cut him. They will not pay his roster bonus just to trade him.

 

[Clove]

Glover is due a 1.7 roster bonus on March 1. Free Agency does not start until March 5, I think. That means we have to trade him quick. If a trade is not reached, Dallas will cut him. They will not pay his roster bonus just to trade him.

How much will Jones pay to get a 4th rounder? I'm sure he'll just cut him right?

 

[austintodallas]

Watch this strategy.
Trade your 18th pick to New Orleans for their early 2nd, 4th, and next years 1st.

Then turn around and trade Ellis and your next years number 1 to Denver for their 22nd pick. So that gives you a 22, an early 2nd, mid 2nd, 3rd,early 4th, 5th,7th.

You have 4 first day picks, and your 2nd would be like a late late 1st round selection . You still have Glover that you could trade straight up for a 4th, and next year you still have all of your picks.

You my friend are a genius!

The only part that I don't love is the trading of Ellis but I could definitely get over that in return for 4 day 1 picks.

My picks under this scenario...
1st...Bobby Carpenter
2nd(a)...Gabe Watson
2nd(b)...best OT available - Mcneil, Scott, Colledge
3rd...Pat Watkins

 

[Clove]

You my friend are a genius!

The only part that I don't love is the trading of Ellis but I could definitely get over that in return for 4 day 1 picks.

My picks under this scenario...
1st...Bobby Carpenter
2nd(a)...Gabe Watson
2nd(b)...best OT available - Mcneil, Scott, Colledge
3rd...Pat Watkins

That would be a very good draft. And that's why I was saying that this is the year for the trade for us (unless for some miracle reason AJ Hawk or Ngata or Jimmy Williams fell to us at 18, or one of the top 3 QB's )

 

[austintodallas]

That would be a very good draft. And that's why I was saying that this is the year for the trade for us (unless for some miracle reason AJ Hawk or Ngata or Jimmy Williams fell to us at 18, or one of the top 3 QB's )

Yes, I guess my main objective with this thread was trying to figure out a way that we could draft both Bobby Carpenter and Gabe Watson.

Mission accomplished. Thanks for everyone's input!

 

[Clove]

Yes, I guess my main objective with this thread was trying to figure out a way that we could draft both Bobby Carpenter and Gabe Watson.

Mission accomplished. Thanks for everyone's input!

Let me tell you this right now. If we drafted Bobby Carpenter and Gabe Watson, I will do cartwheels from my house to "hmm, to my back yard":laugh2: