Trade-Fitted Value Chart

[AdamJT13]

In this thread, I posted the list of traded draft picks since 1993. A few years ago, a poster on another message board took the list through 2008 and fitted the trades using the Weibull distribution to build this draft value chart --


Trade-Fitted Values

1 3000
2 2755
3 2591
4 2452
5 2330
6 2220
7 2120
8 2028
9 1942
10 1862
11 1787
12 1716
13 1650
14 1587
15 1528
16 1472
17 1419
18 1368
19 1319
20 1273
21 1229
22 1187
23 1147
24 1109
25 1072
26 1037
27 1003
28 970
29 939
30 909
31 880
32 853
33 826
34 800
35 776
36 752
37 729
38 707
39 686
40 665
41 646
42 626
43 608
44 590
45 573
46 556
47 540
48 525
49 510
50 495
51 481
52 468
53 455
54 442
55 430
56 418
57 406
58 395
59 384
60 373
61 363
62 353
63 344
64 335
65 326
66 317
67 308
68 300
69 292
70 285
71 277
72 270
73 263
74 256
75 249
76 243
77 236
78 230
79 224
80 219
81 213
82 208
83 202
84 197
85 192
86 187
87 183
88 178
89 173
90 169
91 165
92 161
93 157
94 153
95 149
96 145
97 142
98 138
99 135
100 132
101 128
102 125
103 122
104 119
105 116
106 114
107 111
108 108
109 106
110 103
111 101
112 98
113 96
114 94
115 91
116 89
117 87
118 85
119 83
120 81
121 79
122 77
123 75
124 74
125 72
126 70
127 69
128 67
129 66
130 64
131 63
132 61
133 60
134 58
135 57
136 56
137 54
138 53
139 52
140 51
141 50
142 48
143 47
144 46
145 45
146 44
147 43
148 42
149 41
150 40
151 39
152 39
153 38
154 37
155 36
156 35
157 35
158 34
159 33
160 32
161 32
162 31
163 30
164 30
165 29
166 28
167 28
168 27
169 26
170 26
171 25
172 25
173 24
174 24
175 23
176 23
177 22
178 22
179 21
180 21
181 20
182 20
183 19
184 19
185 19
186 18
187 18
188 17
189 17
190 17
191 16
192 16
193 16
194 15
195 15
196 15
197 14
198 14
199 14
200 13
201 13
202 13
203 13
204 12
205 12
206 12
207 12
208 11
209 11
210 11
211 11
212 10
213 10
214 10
215 10
216 10
217 9
218 9
219 9
220 9
221 9
222 8
223 8
224 8
225 8
226 8
227 8
228 7
229 7
230 7
231 7
232 7
233 7
234 7
235 6
236 6
237 6
238 6
239 6
240 6
241 6
242 6
243 6
244 5
245 5
246 5
247 5
248 5
249 5
250 5
251 5
252 5
253 4
254 4
255 4
256 4

 

[theogt]

Basing anything off historical trades is somewhat useless in the first round given the rookie wage scale now.

 

[DFWJC]

Hey Adam.
Don't you think they've gotten better at this in the last 5-6 years?
I'm not sure if the sample rate is large enough for you, but I suspect those number will be better if you went back to to 2005 or so.

And yes. The rookie wage scale changed things beginning last year, so that's an even better example.

This new contract changes things as well with the possiblity of slight bumps due the contract averaging clause in the 5th year.

 

[CowboyChris]

Adam, can you plug in what the Commanders gave up to move to #2 according to that chart.

 

[rkell87]

Adam, can you plug in what the Commanders gave up to move to #2 according to that chart.

why can't you just do it?

 

[AdamJT13]

Basing anything off historical trades is somewhat useless in the first round given the rookie wage scale now.

That remains to be seen. The trades made in the first round last year were pretty much in line with trades made in previous years.

For example --

2011 ---> 10 = 16, 49

2000 ---> 10 = 15, 45



2011 ---> 21 = 27, 70

1993 ---> 20 = 26, 81



2011 ---> 28 = 56, next 1st (roughly equivalent to No. 48)

1995 ---> 28 = 41, 63



The rookie wage scale SHOULD make the top few picks more attractive, given that they get smaller contracts than before, but the fifth-year option clause for top-10 picks helps counterbalance that. Otherwise, the difference between the contracts for the rest of the picks in the draft hasn't changed all that much.

 

[DFWJC]

That remains to be seen. The trades made in the first round last year were pretty much in line with trades made in previous years.

For example --

2011 ---> 10 = 16, 49

2000 ---> 10 = 15, 45



2011 ---> 21 = 27, 70

1993 ---> 20 = 26, 81



2011 ---> 28 = 56, next 1st (roughly equivalent to No. 48)

1995 ---> 28 = 41, 63



The rookie wage scale SHOULD make the top few picks more attractive, given that they get smaller contracts than before, but the fifth-year option clause for top-10 picks helps counterbalance that. Otherwise, the difference between the contracts for the rest of the picks in the draft hasn't changed all that much.

Interesting.

 

[cowboysooner]

It would be around 5800 points without discounting future years and assuming the 16th and 17th picks for future years.

 

[CowboyChris]

why can't you just do it?

is your name Adam?

 

[theogt]

That remains to be seen. The trades made in the first round last year were pretty much in line with trades made in previous years.

For example --

2011 ---> 10 = 16, 49

2000 ---> 10 = 15, 45



2011 ---> 21 = 27, 70

1993 ---> 20 = 26, 81



2011 ---> 28 = 56, next 1st (roughly equivalent to No. 48)

1995 ---> 28 = 41, 63



The rookie wage scale SHOULD make the top few picks more attractive, given that they get smaller contracts than before, but the fifth-year option clause for top-10 picks helps counterbalance that. Otherwise, the difference between the contracts for the rest of the picks in the draft hasn't changed all that much.

Treading closely on divulging something I might otherwise shouldn't, there's some evidence floating around that at least one team thinks that the rookie wage scale flattens out the value curve a fair amount. Of course, that's just one person (or team's) perception of value. Actual value (or, rather, price) is, of course, not knowable until after the fact.

 

[AdamJT13]

Treading closely on divulging something I might otherwise shouldn't, there's some evidence floating around that at least one team thinks that the rookie wage scale flattens out the value curve a fair amount. Of course, that's just one person (or team's) perception of value. Actual value (or, rather, price) is, of course, not knowable until after the fact.

The most interesting effect that the rookie wage scale might have on draft trades -- thanks to the NFL accidentally revealing the formula (to the teams and agents) last season -- is regarding the end of the first round and the top of the second round.

Last year, the last pick of the first round had a first-year cap number (and rookie pool number) that was almost 25 percent higher than the first pick of the second round. Dollar-wise, the actual difference between Nos. 32 and 33 was more than the difference between Nos. 9 and 11. Points-wise, however, the difference is only about one-sixth as much.

So, it will be interesting to see whether any teams trade down from about 26-32 and what they get. Or if any teams trade up to about 33-35.

 

[rkell87]

is your name Adam?

no but how lazy can you be, go look up the picks and look at the freaking chart, why ask someone else to do something you are perfectly capable of doing yourself?


it took me all of 90 seconds to find the answer myself

 

[CowboyChris]

no but how lazy can you be, go look up the picks and look at the freaking chart, why ask someone else to do something you are perfectly capable of doing yourself?


it took me all of 90 seconds to find the answer myself

congrats man...i hope everyone on the board thinks more highly of you. you are the man!!! you are a hero!

i wouldve checked it myself, but i had 15 min break at work when i checked this thread out. but its cool....you probably didnt know that.

 

[rkell87]

congrats man...i hope everyone on the board thinks more highly of you. you are the man!!! you are a hero!

i wouldve checked it myself, but i had 15 min break at work when i checked this thread out. but its cool....you probably didnt know that.

you at work now?

 

[CowboyChris]

you at work now?

just got home

 

[CowboyChris]

no but how lazy can you be, go look up the picks and look at the freaking chart, why ask someone else to do something you are perfectly capable of doing yourself?


it took me all of 90 seconds to find the answer myself

what did you come up with? tell everyone, how did you figure 1st rounders in 2013 and 2014

 

[rkell87]

just got home

great, you have time now

 

[rkell87]

what did you come up with? tell everyone, how did you figure 1st rounders in 2013 and 2014

nobody but you wants to know, if you want to know how to figure futures adam gives you a hint in post 6

 

[rkell87]

thought I would bump this just to see how close this is, it says we get an 80 point discount

 

[DFWJC]

thought I would bump this just to see how close this is, it says we get an 80 point discount

yeah, it was a 50 point discount (or 3%) on the current standard chart. I'm sure that's why the Rams wanted us to throw in a 5th rounder to get it closer. Glad we didn't.

+/- 3% is pretty close, imo.
Adam's values were also about that range.