Trade Up Review

xwalker

xwalker

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I've seen some questions about trading up; therefore I decided to analyze the concept.

I picked #15 as the spot for this analysis; however, it's a similar concept for spots near #15.

What players are likely to be available at #15 but not at #19 and would any be worth trading up to acquire.

It would require about a 3rd round pick to move up from #19 to #15.

Group 1 - Very very Low Possibility

Group 2 - If availabe at #15 then teams likely know something negative about them that we don't.

Group 3
Ridley - Only if they would take a 4th.
Vea - Is he closer to Star Lotulelei or Donkey Kong Suh in ability?
Landry - High probably of being OK not great.
Davenport - High upside but could easily be a bust.

Group 4 - I just don't see trading up for any of these players.

Conclusion - I just don't see it at #15. Maybe at whatever point a team would take at 4th. Is that point #17, #16 or #15? Vea or Ridley would be the most likely targets, IMO.

Group 1
Available at #15? Highly Unliklely
SAM DARNOLD QB USC
JOSH ALLEN QB Wyoming
JOSH ROSEN QB UCLA
BAKER MAYFIELD QB Oklahoma
BRADLEY CHUBB DE N.C. State
SAQUON BARKLEY RB Penn St.
DENZEL WARD CB Ohio St.
QUENTON NELSON G Notre Dame

Group 2
Available at #15? Possible but unlikely.
TREMAINE EDMUNDS ILB Virginia Tech
ROQUAN SMITH OLB Georgia
MINKAH FITZPATRICK S Alabama
DERWIN JAMES S Florida St.

Group 3
Maybe available at #15 but not at #19.
VITA VEA DT Washington
CALVIN RIDLEY WR Alabama
MARCUS DAVENPORT DE Texas-San Antonio
HAROLD LANDRY EDGE Boston College

Group 4
Definitely not trading up from #19 to acquire.
DA'RON PAYNE
MAURICE HURST
JOSH JACKSON
LAMAR JACKSON
DJ MOORE
COURTLAND SUTTON WR SMU
WILL HERNANDEZ G Texas-El Paso
MIKE MCGLINCHEY OT Notre Dame
LEIGHTON VANDER ESCH ILB Boise St.
RASHAAN EVANS OLB Alabama
MIKE HUGHES CB Central Florida
JAMES DANIELS C Iowa
DERRIUS GUICE RB LSU
HAYDEN HURST TE South Carolina
TAVEN BRYAN DT Florida
DALLAS GOEDERT TE South Dakota St.
JAIRE ALEXANDER CB Louisville
ISAIAH WYNN G Georgia
KOLTON MILLER OT UCLA
SONY MICHEL RB Georgia
CHRISTIAN KIRK
KOLTON MILLER
BILLY PRICE
TAVEN BRYAN
JUSTIN REID
CONNOR WILLIAMS
HARRISON PHILLIPS
 
xwalker said:
I've seen some questions about trading up; therefore I decided to analyze the concept.

I picked #15 as the spot for this analysis; however, it's a similar concept for spots near #15.

What players are likely to be available at #15 but not at #19 and would any be worth trading up to acquire.

It would require about a 3rd round pick to move up from #19 to #15.

Group 1 - Very very Low Possibility

Group 2 - If availabe at #15 then teams likely know something negative about them that we don't.

Group 3
Ridley - Only if they would take a 4th.
Vea - Is he closer to Star Lotulelei or Donkey Kong Suh in ability?
Landry - High probably of being OK not great.
Davenport - High upside but could easily be a bust.

Group 4 - I just don't see trading up for any of these players.

Conclusion - I just don't see it at #15. Maybe at whatever point a team would take at 4th. Is that point #17, #16 or #15? Vea or Ridley would be the most likely targets, IMO.

Group 1
Available at #15? Highly Unliklely
SAM DARNOLD QB USC
JOSH ALLEN QB Wyoming
JOSH ROSEN QB UCLA
BAKER MAYFIELD QB Oklahoma
BRADLEY CHUBB DE N.C. State
SAQUON BARKLEY RB Penn St.
DENZEL WARD CB Ohio St.
QUENTON NELSON G Notre Dame

Group 2
Available at #15? Possible but unlikely.
TREMAINE EDMUNDS ILB Virginia Tech
ROQUAN SMITH OLB Georgia
MINKAH FITZPATRICK S Alabama
DERWIN JAMES S Florida St.

Group 3
Maybe available at #15 but not at #19.
VITA VEA DT Washington
CALVIN RIDLEY WR Alabama
MARCUS DAVENPORT DE Texas-San Antonio
HAROLD LANDRY EDGE Boston College

Group 4
Definitely not trading up from #19 to acquire.
DA'RON PAYNE
MAURICE HURST
JOSH JACKSON
LAMAR JACKSON
DJ MOORE
COURTLAND SUTTON WR SMU
WILL HERNANDEZ G Texas-El Paso
MIKE MCGLINCHEY OT Notre Dame
LEIGHTON VANDER ESCH ILB Boise St.
RASHAAN EVANS OLB Alabama
MIKE HUGHES CB Central Florida
JAMES DANIELS C Iowa
DERRIUS GUICE RB LSU
HAYDEN HURST TE South Carolina
TAVEN BRYAN DT Florida
DALLAS GOEDERT TE South Dakota St.
JAIRE ALEXANDER CB Louisville
ISAIAH WYNN G Georgia
KOLTON MILLER OT UCLA
SONY MICHEL RB Georgia
CHRISTIAN KIRK
KOLTON MILLER
BILLY PRICE
TAVEN BRYAN
JUSTIN REID
CONNOR WILLIAMS
HARRISON PHILLIPS
Click to expand...

It would be good if some of these get picked before 19:
JOSH JACKSON
LAMAR JACKSON
DERRIUS GUICE
MIKE HUGHES


DJ MOORE
COURTLAND SUTTON WR SMU
WILL HERNANDEZ G Texas-El Paso
MIKE MCGLINCHEY OT Notre Dame
LEIGHTON VANDER ESCH ILB Boise St.
RASHAAN EVANS OLB Alabama
MIKE HUGHES CB Central Florida
JAMES DANIELS C Iowa
DERRIUS GUICE RB
 
At 50 I’d be looking to trade up for one of the following:

Picks 50+81
1. Will Hernandez
2. Isaiah Wynn
3. Rashaad Evans
4. DJ Moore
5. Da’Ron Payne
6. James Daniels
7. Calvin Ridley
8. Connor Williams

Picks 50 + 116
9. Ronnie Harrison
10. Billy Price
11. Sutton
 
DanA said:
At 50 I’d be looking to trade up for one of the following:

Picks 50+81
1. Will Hernandez
2. Isaiah Wynn
3. Rashaad Evans
4. DJ Moore
5. Da’Ron Payne
6. James Daniels
7. Calvin Ridley
8. Connor Williams

Picks 50 + 116
9. Ronnie Harrison
10. Billy Price
11. Sutton
Click to expand...

Chart Value of 50+81 is pick #33.

The players in your list are all considered 1st rounders but it seems reasonable that 1 could make it to #33.

Side Note: Pick #33 is a special spot because it's the first pick of day 2. They get over a half day to decide which player they want and know they can literally have any remaining player.
 
In the 1st, I'd consider moving up for:

- James
- Vea
- Landry

IN the 2nd, I'd consider moving up for:

- Just about every player that's being mocked at 19 that would be a reach (LVE, Evans, Moore, Hernandez, Daniels, SUtton, etc...)
 
The only players I'd consider moving up for would be Vea or James but no more than my 4th

Otherwise stay put

I'm not trading my 3rd because you can get a starting OG or DT in rd 3 this year and that's too much value to give up
 
Imagine what a 1st and 3rd would get you if you wanted to trade it for an established NFL player?

No rookie is worth that unless its a QB or a left tackle.
 
visionary said:
The only players I'd consider moving up for would be Vea or James but no more than my 4th

Otherwise stay put

I'm not trading my 3rd because you can get a starting OG or DT in rd 3 this year and that's too much value to give up
Click to expand...

If you're only giving up a 4th you aren't getting anywhere...

You'd likely have to give up a 3rd just to get to 14/15.
 
I'd trade up for Edmund's and James. I like Vea too but I don't know if I'd give up a 3rd. Hard choice.

If we don't get ET with the 2nd I almost expect a trade up. There's going to be a lot of good players in the top of the 2nd. Miller, Harrison, Phillip's, one of the inner OL, even Reid. I'm missing a lot of guys too.

I expect a trade up at some point. Either 2nd or 3rd probably. If the board doesn't fall well I could see us packaging both 4ths to move up maybe. Not sure, but I'm relatively confident its coming
 
visionary said:
Like I said, then stay put :)
Click to expand...
With all of the comp picks, moving around is a good option. I would happily move up for Smith, Edmunds, Fitzpatrick or James in the first. I can live without 50. If I can get one of these elite prospects (that are being pushed down the board for all of these questionable QBs).
 
I'd give up our third for Edmunds, Fitzpatrick and James but that's about it. Everyone else is either too far out of range or the value isn't there.

Not a fan of Vea at all. If we trade up for him, as deep as this draft is at DT, we've failed day one.
 
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