Trading down is the best option

[Redball Express]

And it's way too early to know how we are going to handle retaining our own FA's and how we do or don't greatly impacts the draft and FA and our cap.

To base our needs strictly on the shortcomings we think we saw last year as fans is misleading.

I think before all is said and done,

1) the situations with Allen and Glover and Ellis as well as Key wanting his deal reworked or he may walk, whether TO actually becomes a real pursuit for us

2) whether the OL problems are as serious as they appear to be and if everybody gets well and that mends itself just thru another year together or not..as opposed to spending big bucks in FA or high draft picks to repair it..

3) whether we can afford to not look any further for Bledsoe's replacement and continue to rely on Bledsoe survivng another season like the last one with so many sacks as we had.

While this team is being built for a title run or so we are lead to believe, I wonder about continually bringing in so many new faces each year and possibly letting go of guys like Allen and Glover and Ellis that is very clearly the core of the veteran leadership of this team and still all are capable of producing significantly.

I have seen this being done now for 3 years without clearly feeling that BP has gotten the most from his teams despite the overhauling and vet paring of the positions for other vets or rookies.

At some point, you have to stop the turnover and you have to build a real team concept and let the players lead and get the credit or the blame. To often, I think the Cowboys organization and the fans think that just by adding or subtracting players, the team will jell.

I don't think so. At some point, you have to say, aside from a few tweaks, we've got who we need and we need to succeed with what we have. Not keep looking at 5-8 positions on the team that still need to be overhauled still BEFORE we can be a team.

I also think way too much credit and focus is placd on BP as HC and not enough credit or blame is going to the players and their performances. If BP and not the players continue to get the spotlight, I think no team under him is going to ultimately succeed.

That's just my gut feeling.

BP's celebrity is more of a distraction than a help at times and the way the media treats him and coodles him despite failures will have a negative influence on the team and it's success.

It becomes very easy for the players not to be held accountable for these failures when the coach is always the focus and the players can't be interviewed because of BP's shrouds of defussion where players and coaches can't be addressed directly and they instead have to let BP and JJ answer all the tough topics.

The game is about the players. But in Dallas, it's becoming more and more about the HC and the owner and the players are a long third in the hierarchy. I don't think that's good for team chemistry or accountability and leads to some mistrust overall between players and the upper level of coaches, etc.

And it eventualy shows on the field with sloppy performance and not enough character to win the important games needed to win. It becomes too easy to say BP needs to do this or that rather than the players need to do this or that.

I look at what the 'Skins and the Jints accomplished over the same time periods or less that BP has and it's looking very suspect to me as to whether or not BP really has the answers and can really get this team winning again.

He got his 2 year extention and his big raise. Now what..? Where is the winning going to start..?

And I don't mean with 10-6 or 9-7 records. I mean winning and going into the playoffs with some ability to do something.

So while it's natural to think we can build on what last year was and therefore improve..I think there is a significant number of issues that needs to be addressed before we concern ourselves whether we go LBer or OL or FS with picks and FA's.

We'll see.

parcellswaterboy

 

[StanleySpadowski]

I would wait to see who is sitting at 18 before trading the pick away I'm not interested in how many picks we get as much as the quality of the picks we get.

I agree that we're not going to see a trade until Dallas is on the clock, but unless someone falls drastically, I don't see the problems with moving down. I mentioned Carolina as a possible partner because Davis is done and Foster has an injury history. Lendale White makes them a SB favorite if they aren't already. With Maroney also an option, I don't know how much they'll pay to move up but this year's first and second is within most points chart guidelines and this year's and next year's first isn't out of the question.

I think the odds of finding two servicable starters with picks 27, 50 and 59 are better than with just 18 and 50. I'd like Carpenter at 27 much better than 18 and this draft is pretty deep at second round ILB and FS.

 

[BARRYRAY]

I don't know, the Steelers philosphy is o line, rb, o-line rb, maybe a little variation of the earlier suggestions but why not, they got like three real running backs both power speed, I thin we need a bruiser, a bus if you will and also o-line won't argue that, running game keeps d off the field, will hide our deficiencies...

 

[kartr]

I believe that trading down is the only option. Looking at the strengths and weaknesses of this draft, the needs of the Cowboys and the needs/schemes of other teams, the current draft positions in the first round lead to this.

I'm not trying to start another Bledsoe thread but I don't see the offense being a "strength" as long as he's behind center so I really see the shortest path to winning the Super Bowl is building a dominant defense.

Looking at defensive needs then, even though it's the biggest need, I'd be surprised if the 18th pick was a FS. There are several passable FS available in FA who'll only require a relatively modest cap hit and I can't see having the limited cap dollars tied up in two top 10 picks, a high priced FA and now the 18th pick in the secondary, plus there'll be some decent talent available in the later rounds.

The other two "need" areas on the defense are OLB and one ILB. The only predominant 3-4 teams drafting behind Dallas will be SD, NE and Pittsburgh. None of the ILBs are carrying a high enough grade for the 18th pick. Most of the OLB that Dallas will be looking at early won't be the targets of too many other teams. Guys like Lawson or Carpenter don't really fit the 4-3 so those teams are the primary competition for their services if they're availible. OLB is SD's biggest strength, I think almost everyone agrees that NE will be looking for CBs early and often so that really leaves Pittsburgh. Luckily for Dallas, they'll be drafting 31st at best.

This all leads me to believe that unless a targeted player drops to 18, Dallas will attempt to trade in the mid to late 20s. My current best guess is a trade with Carolina if one of the big four RBs is still on the board at 18 and they decide he won't be there at 27.

If Dallas doesn't go LB with their first pick, look for them to trade up a few spots in the 2nd/3rd round to jump Miami.

Couldn't agree with you more on the offense, but I wouldn't pass on Brod Bunkley if he was there at no.18. Whether we release Glover or not, we still need a young pass rushing DT so the opposing team's qb can't step up in the pocket and I don't trust Rod Wright should we go that direction. I would also like to add a corner like Kelly Jennings or Alan Zemaitis in the 3rd because all of better corners are over thirty or rapidly approaching it.

 

[kartr]

I think that this is the year of the trade for the Dallas Cowboys. We are in prime position to make several trades. We can trade down to a late 1st. We could trade both Ellis and Glover seperately. Ellis for a late 2 or 3, and if you package some next years draft picks with it, you could pull off a trade to get a late 1st.

I also think it's in our best interest to trade down. We have several prospects in FA for the OLINE - and remember this... We are not looking for an all world Right Tackle, just a savy middle aged vet who can solidify the position. A guy who doesn't need help on every play, just a few times a game vs all game like last season.

If we do trade down, we could easily package a next years mid rounder and grab a late 2 or if we don't want to package picks, we could get a 3 for sure.

We could trade Ellis straight up for a 3 or possibly even a late 2. We could trade Glover for a 4 straight up.

So if ever you were going to make trades, this is the year to do it.

I would rather trade Bledsoe than them because they can play at a high level longer. Bledsoe had a decent year and may have improved his stock trading wise, but if he has another down year as is his history, we wont be able to get anything for him. I'd rather trade older players rather than just releasing him.

 

[kartr]

To say trade down is an easy Cliche.....

JJ's stmt he's drafting Safety or LB in round 1 was such a smoke screen I can't believe anyone took him serious.

Its going to be an impact offensive weapon (RB/TE) or likely a 3-4 NT at #18. This draft is deep at Tackle, DE/LB types and safety can mine a starter in 3rd.

Trades - Glover, Ellis, Henson for picks may figure in as well.

I certainly hope that statement was a smokescreen.

 

[Hostile]

To say trade down is an easy Cliche.....

JJ's stmt he's drafting Safety or LB in round 1 was such a smoke screen I can't believe anyone took him serious.

Its going to be an impact offensive weapon (RB/TE) or likely a 3-4 NT at #18. This draft is deep at Tackle, DE/LB types and safety can mine a starter in 3rd.

Trades - Glover, Ellis, Henson for picks may figure in as well.

Glover will be released in a cap saving move, not traded.

Henson will not be traded so you can quit wishing for that. Move on to wishing for his release.

Ellis may be on the trade block.

No way we look RB or TE in the 1st.

I doubt it's a smokescreen about looking at LB or FS in round 1. It makes sense to fix those spots.

 

[Nors]

Pittsurgh was virtually alone in the 3-4 for many years so they could afford to wait. Now with 1/4 of the league playing it, those players won't drop as far as they have in the past. They also haven't gone LB in the first round since Huey Richardson in 1991 so to say they've had "horrible" luck with first round LBs is a misnomer. They have gone LB early in round two and had pretty good success because in the past guys like Levon Kirkland didn't fit most 4-3 philosophies.Obviously being a Super Bowl team, they also don't have as many holes as most teams and can really go BPA at almost any position. If that's LB they'll do it.

Look at last year, either Ware or Merriman probably drops to a late first rounder if Dallas doesn't change schemes.

Kirkland played very well for many years in Seahawks and Eagles 4-3

Tapping the BPA and talent at #18 is the crux of the matter. We will not pass it up if there. Game won in the trenches.

All these hybrids and depth picks will still be there later in draft.

 

[DLCassidy]

I believe that trading down is the only option. Looking at the strengths and weaknesses of this draft, the needs of the Cowboys and the needs/schemes of other teams, the current draft positions in the first round lead to this.

I'm not trying to start another Bledsoe thread but I don't see the offense being a "strength" as long as he's behind center so I really see the shortest path to winning the Super Bowl is building a dominant defense.

Looking at defensive needs then, even though it's the biggest need, I'd be surprised if the 18th pick was a FS. There are several passable FS available in FA who'll only require a relatively modest cap hit and I can't see having the limited cap dollars tied up in two top 10 picks, a high priced FA and now the 18th pick in the secondary, plus there'll be some decent talent available in the later rounds.

The other two "need" areas on the defense are OLB and one ILB. The only predominant 3-4 teams drafting behind Dallas will be SD, NE and Pittsburgh. None of the ILBs are carrying a high enough grade for the 18th pick. Most of the OLB that Dallas will be looking at early won't be the targets of too many other teams. Guys like Lawson or Carpenter don't really fit the 4-3 so those teams are the primary competition for their services if they're availible. OLB is SD's biggest strength, I think almost everyone agrees that NE will be looking for CBs early and often so that really leaves Pittsburgh. Luckily for Dallas, they'll be drafting 31st at best.

This all leads me to believe that unless a targeted player drops to 18, Dallas will attempt to trade in the mid to late 20s. My current best guess is a trade with Carolina if one of the big four RBs is still on the board at 18 and they decide he won't be there at 27.

If Dallas doesn't go LB with their first pick, look for them to trade up a few spots in the 2nd/3rd round to jump Miami.

Early to mid 2nd is where I wish we had a bunch of picks- Moss, Colledge, Mangold, Watson, Carpenter, Stovall, Watkins and Spencer are all guys I happen to like that will probably be chosen in this area and, depending on what we do in FA, one or more could be draft priorities for us.

I agree with a lot of what you say, although I am a supporter of Bledsoe. I think you have to take economics into the equation when you consider what positions to focus on which means no to a 1st round safety and I agree about not being too quick to jump on a LB at 18.

But FA is a tricky business. What we want and what we get or can justify paying may be very different. If we are unsuccessful at signing a starting caliber OT I think that changes everything and we will make that our top draft priority and we will look hard at a McNeil or a Winston or a Scott. If we sign a RT we could still go with a Colledge in round 2 to give us a viable option at LT in the event Flo goes down again. I sincerely doubt BP will allow the OT position to hold him hostage again in what could be his last year. He WILL address it.

If BP wants another pressure player at SOLB, namely Manny Lawson, he won't be able to trade down to get him based on the way his stock is rising.

 

[Nors]

Glover will be released in a cap saving move, not traded.

COULD BE, CBA WILL BE KEY FACTOR - WOULD BE DUMB NOT TO TRY AND GET SOMETHING FOR HIM

Henson will not be traded so you can quit wishing for that. Move on to wishing for his release.

LAST QB THAT WENT TO NFLe NEVER SAW TRAINING CAMP. TRADE VERY POSSIBLE

Ellis may be on the trade block.

HE WAS LAST YEAR AS WELL, TAKERS? I HOPE SO

No way we look RB or TE in the 1st.

WE NEED PLAYMAKERS - 2 TE'S IN THIS DRAFT JUST THAT. JJ STEP UP OR OUT

I doubt it's a smokescreen about looking at LB or FS in round 1. It makes sense to fix those spots.

YOU CAN EASILY DO THAT LATER IN DRAFT. IF JJ IS TELLING THE REST OF NFL (& YOU) HE'S A FREAKIN IDIOT. SMOKESCREEN AT #18

IN IRELAND WE TRUST - THANK GOD LACEWELL IS OUT OF HERE BLOWING UP DRAFTS WITH JJ.......

 

[Nors]

I agree that we're not going to see a trade until Dallas is on the clock, but unless someone falls drastically, I don't see the problems with moving down. I mentioned Carolina as a possible partner because Davis is done and Foster has an injury history. Lendale White makes them a SB favorite if they aren't already. With Maroney also an option, I don't know how much they'll pay to move up but this year's first and second is within most points chart guidelines and this year's and next year's first isn't out of the question.

I think the odds of finding two servicable starters with picks 27, 50 and 59 are better than with just 18 and 50. I'd like Carpenter at 27 much better than 18 and this draft is pretty deep at second round ILB and FS.

Of course adding 59 looks great - thats a tilted trade. Per Trade chart to drop from 18 to 27 only nets you a mid 3rd.

If impact Player is there at #18 you draft him. Lets not get caught up in trading out of first to justify taking a second rounder. Draft BPA at positions of need or you end up with a team of JJ/Lacewell reject reaches.

 

[Hostile]

IN IRELAND WE TRUST - THANK GOD LACEWELL IS OUT OF HERE BLOWING UP DRAFTS WITH JJ.......

Your caps button is stuck.

 

[StanleySpadowski]

Of course adding 59 looks great - thats a tilted trade. Per Trade chart to drop from 18 to 27 only nets you a mid 3rd.

If impact Player is there at #18 you draft him. Lets not get caught up in trading out of first to justify taking a second rounder. Draft BPA at positions of need or you end up with a team of JJ/Lacewell reject reaches.

Do you like being wrong just to get attention.

There are several different "charts" out there but using the most known one yields values of 900 for the 18th pick, 680 for the 27th pick and 310 for the 59th pick. 900 for 990 is hardly "tilted". Teams have historically paid a slight premium to move up for a targeted player. If you look at an analysis of all draft pick trades over the last 5 years you'll see that a 10% or greater premium is so common that it almost makes the values on the standard chart obsolete.


And how does trading down infer that "JJ/Lacewell reject reaches" would happen? Wouldn't trading down negate the likelihood of a targeted player being a reach at a particular slot?