Recap: Troy Aikman Show, Ticket FM 9/21 - Coach McCarthy, Running the Ball, Analytics

[VaqueroTD]

https://post.futurimedia.com/ktck/playlist/21/listen-5639.html?cb=1695302340.549203

Troy Aikman Recap:

• Cowboys are built in a method that they can beat you in many ways.
• When I watched the Jets game, I thought Mike McCarthy did a really good job calling the game. Knowing what the Jets had on defense, and playing an offensive style that gave them a chance. They were very successful against a strong, tough defensive team. To run the ball as many times as they did, it doesn't matter what the success rate was in yards/carry.
• I remember talking with Mike when he coached the Packers. It always stuck with me about him. A lot of coaches would tell me what they didn't average on carries. He always looked at it as the amount of rushes is what determined the success. And a game like the Jets, it's highly important to be physical and aggressive. (FYI, Seen the stats and Troy is right. Amount of rushes is higher determinant on winning.)
• I'm not an analytics expert. My understanding is the coach or analytics person on the team is not allowed a computer. They have a binder that maps it out. They communicate it down based on down and situation. I think most coaches, including Mike, look at the analytics but it's not a hard and fast rule. There's a lot that goes into it. Most coaches I talk to are cautious about it. These are still human beings playing the gamea nd have to be mindful. Analytics say there is no so thing as momentum but most coaches and myself disagree with that. Most coaches wanted to go for it on 4th down, but they were afraid they would lose their job. Now it's part of the game. Maybe it's the reverse now though because the analytics say they should have gone and didn't.

Here are the analytics and topic Aikman is talking about. Stats with a stronger correlation to winning.

Stat	Record	Win Pct
More Rush Atts	3954-969 (141 tied)	0.803
Fewer Turnovers	3174-849 (1041 tied)	0.789
Fewer Pass INTs	2806-808 (1450 tied)	0.776
More Rush TDs	2626-805 (1633 tied)	0.765
More Pass TDs	2645-988 (1431 tied)	0.728
Fewer Sacks Taken	3001-1198 (865 tied)	0.715
More Rush Yds	3581-1458 (25 tied)	0.711
Fewer Sack Yds Lost	3316-1522 (226 tied)	0.685
Fewer Fumbles Lost	2055-985 (2024 tied)	0.676
More Total Yds	3404-1642 (18 tied)	0.675
More First Downs	3150-1664 (250 tied)	0.654
Fewer Fumbles	2405-1415 (1244 tied)	0.630
Fewer Penalties	2531-1986 (547 tied)	0.560
More Net Pass Yds	2815-2233 (16 tied)	0.558
Fewer Penalty Yds	2718-2242 (104 tied)	0.548
More Pass Yds	2643-2403 (18 tied)	0.524
More Pass Cmp	2092-2695 (277 tied)	0.437
More Pass Att	1545-3365 (154 tied)	0.315

This Cowboys Zone Thread covers most of these and where our team currently ranks.

https://cowboyszone.com/threads/cowboys-team-stat-rankings-parcells-would-be-proud.514112/

 

[NorthTexan95]

Great data!

 

[VaqueroTD]

Great data!

I remember that famous article about Coach Mac and his buds that would gather every week and review analytics and strategy while waiting for their next NFL job. You can truly see it in the way this team has been built. Most tactical team I've seen since the Landry/Brandt/Schramm days.

 

[Miller]

https://post.futurimedia.com/ktck/playlist/21/listen-5639.html?cb=1695302340.549203

Troy Aikman Recap:

• Cowboys are built in a method that they can beat you in many ways.
• When I watched the Jets game, I thought Mike McCarthy did a really good job calling the game. Knowing what the Jets had on defense, and playing an offensive style that gave them a chance. They were very successful against a strong, tough defensive team. To run the ball as many times as they did, it doesn't matter what the success rate was in yards/carry.
• I remember talking with Mike when he coached the Packers. It always stuck with me about him. A lot of coaches would tell me what they didn't average on carries. He always looked at it as the amount of rushes is what determined the success. And a game like the Jets, it's highly important to be physical and aggressive. (FYI, Seen the stats and Troy is right. Amount of rushes is higher determinant on winning.)
• I'm not an analytics expert. My understanding is the coach or analytics person on the team is not allowed a computer. They have a binder that maps it out. They communicate it down based on down and situation. I think most coaches, including Mike, look at the analytics but it's not a hard and fast rule. There's a lot that goes into it. Most coaches I talk to are cautious about it. These are still human beings playing the gamea nd have to be mindful. Analytics say there is no so thing as momentum but most coaches and myself disagree with that. Most coaches wanted to go for it on 4th down, but they were afraid they would lose their job. Now it's part of the game. Maybe it's the reverse now though because the analytics say they should have gone and didn't.

Here are the analytics and topic Aikman is talking about. Stats with a stronger correlation to winning.

Stat	Record	Win Pct
More Rush Atts	3954-969 (141 tied)	0.803
Fewer Turnovers	3174-849 (1041 tied)	0.789
Fewer Pass INTs	2806-808 (1450 tied)	0.776
More Rush TDs	2626-805 (1633 tied)	0.765
More Pass TDs	2645-988 (1431 tied)	0.728
Fewer Sacks Taken	3001-1198 (865 tied)	0.715
More Rush Yds	3581-1458 (25 tied)	0.711
Fewer Sack Yds Lost	3316-1522 (226 tied)	0.685
Fewer Fumbles Lost	2055-985 (2024 tied)	0.676
More Total Yds	3404-1642 (18 tied)	0.675
More First Downs	3150-1664 (250 tied)	0.654
Fewer Fumbles	2405-1415 (1244 tied)	0.630
Fewer Penalties	2531-1986 (547 tied)	0.560
More Net Pass Yds	2815-2233 (16 tied)	0.558
Fewer Penalty Yds	2718-2242 (104 tied)	0.548
More Pass Yds	2643-2403 (18 tied)	0.524
More Pass Cmp	2092-2695 (277 tied)	0.437
More Pass Att	1545-3365 (154 tied)	0.315

This Cowboys Zone Thread covers most of these and where our team currently ranks.

https://cowboyszone.com/threads/cowboys-team-stat-rankings-parcells-would-be-proud.514112/

Great post! I heard this today. Thanks for breakdown snd stats

 

[SoBlue128]

Awesome post! Thanks for taking the time and effort to share it.

 

[lopey]

Great work man. Thanks!

 

[Dallasfann]

So many people won't understand a single thing about that first post. So many people have no idea what McCarthy is doing different compared to Kellen Moore.

 

[VaqueroTD]

In light of yesterday's practice news, I wonder if a data guru has ever calculated the winning correlation based on starter/backup injuries, and when they happen in the season versus playoff success.

 

[CCBoy]

In light of yesterday's practice news, I wonder if a data guru has ever calculated the winning correlation based on starter/backup injuries, and when they happen in the season versus playoff success.

On the human eye element, that correlation would be hard to apply because player reactions are mostly see and react products.

It takes leadership to change that instinct roles for effectiveness sake.

 

[lkelly]

The rushing attempts stat seems to be one that is skewed. Teams with a lead, especially trying to protect that lead and shorten the length of the game, will trend very heavily in favor of the run. They will almost sacrifice an attempt to even get a first down so that they can burn clock or force the other team to use their timeouts. Teams with a big lead will "call off the dogs" and run the ball. Teams trailing will trend heavily towards a near 100% pass ratio in the final 5 minutes.

It would be interesting to break the rushing stat down and look at halftime leads or even third quarter leads. See how many times the team leading at the half has more rushing attempts. That might be a better objective measure of the value instead of the "we're running the ball BECAUSE we are winning" vs. "we're running the ball TO win."

 

[TWOK11]

Those stats are meaningless because they lack any context. They appear to show a direct correlation between rushing attempts and winning, when in fact the rushing attempts are a product OF winning.

The advanced situational analytics show that rushing success has virtually no causative correlation with winning at all ove the last 20 years.

 

[TWOK11]

The rushing attempts stat seems to be one that is skewed. Teams with a lead, especially trying to protect that lead and shorten the length of the game, will trend very heavily in favor of the run. They will almost sacrifice an attempt to even get a first down so that they can burn clock or force the other team to use their timeouts. Teams with a big lead will "call off the dogs" and run the ball. Teams trailing will trend heavily towards a near 100% pass ratio in the final 5 minutes.

It would be interesting to break the rushing stat down and look at halftime leads or even third quarter leads. See how many times the team leading at the half has more rushing attempts. That might be a better objective measure of the value instead of the "we're running the ball BECAUSE we are winning" vs. "we're running the ball TO win."

Bingo

 

[VaqueroTD]

The rushing attempts stat seems to be one that is skewed. Teams with a lead, especially trying to protect that lead and shorten the length of the game, will trend very heavily in favor of the run. They will almost sacrifice an attempt to even get a first down so that they can burn clock or force the other team to use their timeouts. Teams with a big lead will "call off the dogs" and run the ball. Teams trailing will trend heavily towards a near 100% pass ratio in the final 5 minutes.

It would be interesting to break the rushing stat down and look at halftime leads or even third quarter leads. See how many times the team leading at the half has more rushing attempts. That might be a better objective measure of the value instead of the "we're running the ball BECAUSE we are winning" vs. "we're running the ball TO win."

Good point but also probably a reason why Kellen isn't here. Don't think Coach Mac had faith he completely understood this and how it relates to team momentum. And not just pure run vs pass numbers. That's where I think the data junkies get caught up too much. It's also the types of plays, the clock plays, the packages, etc.

 

[VaqueroTD]

Those stats are meaningless because they lack any context. They appear to show a direct correlation between rushing attempts and winning, when in fact the rushing attempts are a product OF winning.

The advanced situational analytics show that rushing success has virtually no causative correlation with winning at all ove the last 20 years.

But I think you’re missing Aikman’s point about all of this. It’s not always the Analytics… it’s the physical presence, the domination, no one knows this better than a leader of that 1990s dynasty. You play a bully defense (Jets), you hit the bully in the mouth. Our problem in the Wade/Garrett Playoff years, continued through Mac, and he is trying to get rid of it.

 

[Gambit]

FYI, Seen the stats and Troy is right. Amount of rushes is higher determinant on winning.)

This same point was made by Keyshawn Johnson when Sherman was whining about Pollard only getting 72 yards rushing

 

[big dog cowboy]

https://post.futurimedia.com/ktck/playlist/21/listen-5639.html?cb=1695302340.549203

Troy Aikman Recap:

• Cowboys are built in a method that they can beat you in many ways.
• When I watched the Jets game, I thought Mike McCarthy did a really good job calling the game. Knowing what the Jets had on defense, and playing an offensive style that gave them a chance. They were very successful against a strong, tough defensive team. To run the ball as many times as they did, it doesn't matter what the success rate was in yards/carry.
• I remember talking with Mike when he coached the Packers. It always stuck with me about him. A lot of coaches would tell me what they didn't average on carries. He always looked at it as the amount of rushes is what determined the success. And a game like the Jets, it's highly important to be physical and aggressive. (FYI, Seen the stats and Troy is right. Amount of rushes is higher determinant on winning.)
• I'm not an analytics expert. My understanding is the coach or analytics person on the team is not allowed a computer. They have a binder that maps it out. They communicate it down based on down and situation. I think most coaches, including Mike, look at the analytics but it's not a hard and fast rule. There's a lot that goes into it. Most coaches I talk to are cautious about it. These are still human beings playing the gamea nd have to be mindful. Analytics say there is no so thing as momentum but most coaches and myself disagree with that. Most coaches wanted to go for it on 4th down, but they were afraid they would lose their job. Now it's part of the game. Maybe it's the reverse now though because the analytics say they should have gone and didn't.

Here are the analytics and topic Aikman is talking about. Stats with a stronger correlation to winning.

Stat	Record	Win Pct
More Rush Atts	3954-969 (141 tied)	0.803
Fewer Turnovers	3174-849 (1041 tied)	0.789
Fewer Pass INTs	2806-808 (1450 tied)	0.776
More Rush TDs	2626-805 (1633 tied)	0.765
More Pass TDs	2645-988 (1431 tied)	0.728
Fewer Sacks Taken	3001-1198 (865 tied)	0.715
More Rush Yds	3581-1458 (25 tied)	0.711
Fewer Sack Yds Lost	3316-1522 (226 tied)	0.685
Fewer Fumbles Lost	2055-985 (2024 tied)	0.676
More Total Yds	3404-1642 (18 tied)	0.675
More First Downs	3150-1664 (250 tied)	0.654
Fewer Fumbles	2405-1415 (1244 tied)	0.630
Fewer Penalties	2531-1986 (547 tied)	0.560
More Net Pass Yds	2815-2233 (16 tied)	0.558
Fewer Penalty Yds	2718-2242 (104 tied)	0.548
More Pass Yds	2643-2403 (18 tied)	0.524
More Pass Cmp	2092-2695 (277 tied)	0.437
More Pass Att	1545-3365 (154 tied)	0.315

This Cowboys Zone Thread covers most of these and where our team currently ranks.

https://cowboyszone.com/threads/cowboys-team-stat-rankings-parcells-would-be-proud.514112/

Thanks for posting!!!

 

[VaqueroTD]

This same point was made by Keyshawn Johnson when Sherman was whining about Pollard only getting 72 yards rushing

Keyshawn gets it. It's why Parcells brought him to the team even close to retirement. Never afraid to block. He knows the mentality Aikman is talking about. Parcells was no different in his approach on roster building when it comes to this.

 

[JBS]

Those stats are meaningless because they lack any context. They appear to show a direct correlation between rushing attempts and winning, when in fact the rushing attempts are a product OF winning.

The advanced situational analytics show that rushing success has virtually no causative correlation with winning at all ove the last 20 years.

It’s absolutely mind boggling that people still don’t understand this. Great job breaking this down

 

[wick]

Amount of rushes is higher determinant on winning.

Wrong. It is highly correlated to winning, but it is not a causal factor. If it were, teams could expect to run goalline offense the entire game, run the ball up the gut 40 times, and win.

Anyone think that would actually work?

 

[VaqueroTD]

Wrong. It is highly correlated to winning, but it is not a causal factor. If it were, teams could expect to run goalline offense the entire game, run the ball up the gut 40 times, and win.

Anyone think that would actually work?

Yes and no. Yes, not proper way to say it for statistics. But no, no one is leading the league in rushing attempts if they're only getting 1 yard/carry. Only exception would be if your QB is horrible, and you have no choice.

If you have a worn-out Zeke as your primary back, you're going to start throwing when you should be running. And if you keep running, a team will stop you as the defenses get better.

Going back to the previous reply, I would say don't get caught up too much in the analytics and statistics, because to Aikman's point again, it's the human factor you have to consider if you're a Coach. Domination, fatigue, clock control, momentum - very real parts of the game.