Trying to break down the draft

[Manster68]

I placed this on another board - trying to break down where Dallas goes in the draft on April 29th.

One aspect I keep in mind is... ONLY 17 PLAYERS WILL BE DRAFTED BEFORE THE COWBOYS PICK!

So, if a Marcus Spears can fall to #20 like he did last year, then SOMEBODY is bound to fall to #18.

Let's see...and break it down like this...

Definate Goners before #18

Reggie Bush
Matt Leinart
Vince Young
D'Brickashaw Furguson
AJ Hawk
Mario Williams
Vernon Davis
Haloti Ngata

There is eight....now for the most likely off the boards...

Tamba Hali
Michael Huff
Jay Cutler
Winston Justice
D'Angelo Williams
Jimmy Williams

There is six more....this will leave a variety of players that will be available when Dallas picks.

Of course, three more players will be taken, but which ones?

Santonio Holmes
Manny Lawson
Bobby Carpenter
Chad Greenway
Ernie Sims
Mathias Kiwanuka
Broderick Bunkley
LenDale White
Chad Jackson
Leonard Pope
Marcus McNeil
Kamerion Wimbley
Ko Simpson

Bottom line: Dallas will get a good player at #18. Several of these players will be there when the Cowboys pick (plus others I didn't mention like Jason Allen).

 

[Hostile]

Not only will we get a good pick at #18, I think we're going to get a good pick in the 2nd and 3rd rounds too. This Draft is very deep at positions we can use.

SOLB
DT/NT
OL
S

 

[neosapien23]

I really hope Cutler makes it to the 18th pick. If he doesn't make, than Vince Young might. Dallas needs a quarterback of the future and for some reason, I think Cutler is a better quarterback than Young for the system that Dallas runs.

 

[Manster68]

I really hope Cutler makes it to the 18th pick. If he doesn't make, than Vince Young might. Dallas needs a quarterback of the future and for some reason, I think Cutler is a better quarterback than Young for the system that Dallas runs.

I am convinced that Cutler does not get by Arizona at #10.

 

[Hostile]

I am convinced that Cutler does not get by Arizona at #10.

They are talking about him out here. Most likely you are right.

 

[DLCassidy]

I ONLY 17 PLAYERS WILL BE DRAFTED BEFORE THE COWBOYS PICK!

I would wager that this statement will turn out to be false.

 

[CrazyCowboy]

Not only will we get a good pick at #18, I think we're going to get a good pick in the 2nd and 3rd rounds too. This Draft is very deep at positions we can use.

SOLB
DT/NT
OL
S

So, if the above is true, then it is safe to say that the 17 teams ahead of us will also be getting very good picks.......:laugh1:

 

[spindoc]

I usually don't like the idea of trading down, but your post showcases many good players that will be on the board at pick #18 so I think trading down would be our best plan this year. If a "big name" doesn't fall, I have to believe that Jerry trades down. I would love to gain another 3rd and a 4th rounder. Saturday night is a good time to reevaluate the game plan so it's nice to have a pick in Round 4. Last year's Round 4 picks were excellent.

 

[Pabst]

I would wager that this statement will turn out to be false.

I agree, Cassidy. In fact, I'd bet about 21 or 22 players will be gone.

 

[hendog]

Speaking of a trade down let's look at this scenario.

Pick 18 is worth 900 pts.

Pick 26 (Bears) is worth 700 pts.

The Bears also have pick #88 in the 3rd rd. and #120 in the 4th.

Pick 88 is worth 150 pts.

Pick 120 is worth 54 pts for a total of 204 pts.

Therefore we could trade down from 18 to 26 with the Bears and receive their 3rd and 4th picks as a result.

Why would the Bears want to trade up?

Maybe 1 of the 2 first rd graded WR's is already off the board, let's say Bronco's have selected Chad Jackson.

We know the Bears made a pretty good offer for Randle El and they feel that Santonio Holmes is an even better WR and bigger deep threat than R. El and the perfect compliment to Muhammed.

So the Bears trade up with us to pick S.Holmes.

Now we have pick 1-26, 2-49, 3-80, 3-88, 4-120.

That would give us 4 picks on day 1 plus the 4th we lost last yr.

Plus - for all we know Carp or Lawson or Wimberly or all 3 will still be there @ 26.

 

[slick325]

Speaking of a trade down let's look at this scenario.

Pick 18 is worth 900 pts.

Pick 26 (Bears) is worth 700 pts.

The Bears also have pick #88 in the 3rd rd. and #120 in the 4th.

Pick 88 is worth 150 pts.

Pick 120 is worth 54 pts for a total of 204 pts.

Therefore we could trade down from 18 to 26 with the Bears and receive their 3rd and 4th picks as a result.

Why would the Bears want to trade up?

Maybe 1 of the 2 first rd graded WR's is already off the board, let's say Bronco's have selected Chad Jackson.

We know the Bears made a pretty good offer for Randle El and they feel that Santonio Holmes is an even better WR and bigger deep threat than R. El and the perfect compliment to Muhammed.

So the Bears trade up with us to pick S.Holmes.

Now we have pick 1-26, 2-49, 3-80, 3-88, 4-120.

That would give us 4 picks on day 1 plus the 4th we lost last yr.

Plus - for all we know Carp or Lawson or Wimberly or all 3 will still be there @ 26.

Not a bad idea at all.

 

[parcells4prez]

I have a feeling Manny Lawson will be long gone before Big D picks. But I agree, this is a deep draft for the our positions of need..

 

[CowboyWay]

Speaking of a trade down let's look at this scenario.

Pick 18 is worth 900 pts.

Pick 26 (Bears) is worth 700 pts.

The Bears also have pick #88 in the 3rd rd. and #120 in the 4th.

Pick 88 is worth 150 pts.

Pick 120 is worth 54 pts for a total of 204 pts.

Therefore we could trade down from 18 to 26 with the Bears and receive their 3rd and 4th picks as a result.

Why would the Bears want to trade up?

Maybe 1 of the 2 first rd graded WR's is already off the board, let's say Bronco's have selected Chad Jackson.

We know the Bears made a pretty good offer for Randle El and they feel that Santonio Holmes is an even better WR and bigger deep threat than R. El and the perfect compliment to Muhammed.

So the Bears trade up with us to pick S.Holmes.

Now we have pick 1-26, 2-49, 3-80, 3-88, 4-120.

That would give us 4 picks on day 1 plus the 4th we lost last yr.

Plus - for all we know Carp or Lawson or Wimberly or all 3 will still be there @ 26.

That is EXACTLY how I see this draft shaking out. The only reason we don't move is if somebody falls to us and we can't say no too. Rare, but it happens.

 

[AbeBeta]

I agree, Cassidy. In fact, I'd bet about 21 or 22 players will be gone.

Might we look to move down? Yes. Will someone want to trade up? Likely not.

 

[proline]

If there is value for us to be had by moving down, then there is value for others below us to stay put. Unless a team is trying to move up to draft a NEED position, I don't see anyone interested in trading with us.

 

[Sasquatch]

Might we look to move down? Yes. Will someone want to trade up? Likely not.

Or the possibility that teams ahead of us might be willing to move back as well, providing a more attractive deal for those wanting to trade up. I wouldn't be shocked if we just stay put.

 

[Future]

I really hope Cutler makes it to the 18th pick. If he doesn't make, than Vince Young might. Dallas needs a quarterback of the future and for some reason, I think Cutler is a better quarterback than Young for the system that Dallas runs.

The cowboys QB of the future is not to be had in this draft...sorry

 

[K-DOGG]

If Vince Young does not fall to the 18th spot in the draft, the Cowboys will not take a QB. If the boys are going to make a Super Bowl run now, they must select a OLB, FS, OL or NT within their first day picks. A QB would only take up salary cap space and a spot on the bench this season. That is not what the Boys need for this run, they must get two or three starters and rotation players that can contribute NOW!:starspin

 

[DLCassidy]

I agree, Cassidy. In fact, I'd bet about 21 or 22 players will be gone.

I don't have a crystal ball obviously. But If D'Angelo Williams is still on the board at pick 18 that's a good thing for us. This guy may end up being better than Reggie Bush- not quite as talented but more rugged and amazingly productive. Anyway my theory is a team like Indy will want a soft landing from letting Edge go. A move all the way to 30 would net us their 2nd. You'd just have to hope then that Lawson, Carpenter, Wimberly or Winston is still there at 30. One should be. So that would mean 29 players would be gone.

 

[neosapien23]

If Vince Young does not fall to the 18th spot in the draft, the Cowboys will not take a QB. If the boys are going to make a Super Bowl run now, they must select a OLB, FS, OL or NT within their first day picks. A QB would only take up salary cap space and a spot on the bench this season. That is not what the Boys need for this run, they must get two or three starters and rotation players that can contribute NOW!:starspin

If the best player available is a tackle, WR, or QB, then you have to take the BPA. No sense in taking a FS or OLB if all the good ones are gone by the time we pick. Now if a position of need has similar value to the BPA than it is okay to draft on need. Ex... Lawson and Cutler are both there at 18. If the BPA is far superior than you have to make that pick. Ex..Lawson, Wimberely, Justice, and Williams are gone, Cutler and Holmes still there at 18.