If he doesn't have a long playoff run or SB what would change? He would again ask to be the highest paid QB in the league, they would tag him again for one season if they have to then let him go ala Kirk Cousing or just let him walk after the season. In order to get what he would want (40m+) then he would absolutely need to produce this coming season if he plays on the tag, another think he won't be able to do if it goes that route is hold out, it's going to be a new offense and he will have to learn it he can't walk in late or hold out a few games into the season then just walk in and pick it up like it was the same offense he has played under these past 4 seasons. He is 26 years old he should take a 5-6 year deal now when it is up (proabably a year before it is up he can re-negotiate) he will be 31 years old and sign another deal for 50m+ per season if he proves his worth, his agents are trying to line him up for 2 more deals after this one and that will never happen, he will get this deal and one more after it unless he proves to be a Brees or Brady and can play into his 40's