Turnovers - pure luck?

[lurkercowboy]

Dallas opponents turned the ball over in bunches in the last two games and the Cowboys won both. No coincidence. We hear all the time how important turnovers are, but how much about the "turnover battle" is random chance, as compared to skill or coaching? Defenders league-wide pull at the ball on most every play and sometimes it comes out, sometimes not. Passes are tipped, bounce off receivers, or sometimes are thrown straight at defenders.

Of the top five teams ranked by turnover differential in the last five years, there are only three teams that made the top-5 list in consecutive seasons over that span. Those were the Chiefs (first in 2016 and second in 2017), the Seahawks (first in 2018 and fourth in 2019), and the Patriots (fifth in 2018 and first in 2019). All the other teams were on the list one year and out the next. This is not a stat that carries over.

What do we think?

 

[rnr_honeybadger]

They played 2 bad teams

 

[visionary]

They played 2 bad teams

this

 

[Jipper]

They played 2 bad teams

yeah I was gonna say that...they kinda made their own luck ha

 

[pitt33]

Interesting points made by OP on forced turnovers not carrying over...

So many factors go into it from year to year. The most critical could be attributed to scheme (directly linked to coaching) and talent. Free agency ultimately benefits the most talented players. Many cash in elsewhere. That too creates variability season over season.

And It certainly helps to have above average football IQ in regards to talent. Not sure where this defense has ranked in that category over the last several years but I would wager it’s on the lower end.

 

[thunderpimp91]

Pure luck? I’m not sure I would go quite that far. Are turnovers tough to duplicate? You betcha.

the thing about turnovers is you have to have a few things.

first off you have to have a culture that embraces them. Guys need to have the attitude that turnovers are expected, and they need to be responsible for looking for turnovers in every play. Teams that embrace attacking the ball and emphasize effort/pursuit tend to get the most turnovers.

second you need to have some innovation. Just like everything else teams will adapt to what you’re doing. I really think one reason we didn’t see more turnovers under rods defense is because we never disguised anything. You can’t confuse a QB into a mistake with a line up and play your man in front of you scheme.

third is you have to have the talent all across the field. You need to have enough players that a team can’t just avoid your ballhawking DB. You need a consistent pass rush to force qbs into mistakes. You need Lbs who can fill holes. You plug holes at the LOS you get more turnovers because of how many defenders are around the ball. The ball carrier gets stood up, from the pile so the next person in can try to strip it out.

turnovers are nothing more than being able to take advantage of mistakes by the other team. The better talent and innovative gameplay you have the more mistakes the other team will make. Is that luck? Maybe to an extent, but good defenses take advantage of those mistakes which is talent and instinct.

 

[DandyDon52]

could be luck, but 2 games in a row the other team fumbles easily in their end spotting us points lol?? both games it happens early in the games.
It seemed to me the fumbles were on purpose, and it is like these games are scripted, and the players just act out the script.

Then you have the jets up and beat the rams lol ?? bookies made a lot of money off that jets game, and the nfl shares profits??
Kinda fishy dont you think?
wash beats the steelers, giants beat the seahawks, all kinda fishy.

 

[Aviano90]

The one butt fumble was pure luck. The others were forced. Give credit where credit is due.

 

[ChuckA1]

They're often luck

 

[rnr_honeybadger]

Cincinnati Bengals had a -9 on their +/- turnover ratio for the year before they played Dallas
San Francisco 40ers had a -7 on their +/- turnover ratio for the year before they played Dallas

Wake me up when the Dallas Jerry's beat someone worthwhile, until then this is just meaningless hype.

 

[jazzcat22]

They played 2 bad teams

a win is a win. However you will never understand that.
Negative with every post.

 

[MWH1967]

a win is a win. However you will never understand that.
Negative with every post.

some people prefer pee on their cornflakes. I prefer Milk...

 

[ClappingCarrot]

Cowboys are potentially in a situation where their last 4 opponents are playing backup QBs, and not particularly great ones either.

But give them credit, they answered the bell and cashed in each opportunity.

 

[rnr_honeybadger]

a win is a win. However you will never understand that.
Negative with every post.

I never said a win wasn't a win. However a win against a good team is different from a win against a bad team. Surely you can understand that beating a team that everyone expects you to beat while good is well...just that a win against a team you were expected to beat.

 

[MoistMayonnaise]

Cowboys are potentially in a situation where their last 4 opponents are playing backup QBs, and not particularly great ones either.

But give them credit, they answered the bell and cashed in each opportunity.

Is our backup great? Serviceable comes to mind but that doesn't inspire confidence.

 

[ClappingCarrot]

Is our backup great? Serviceable comes to mind but that doesn't inspire confidence.

Are we really comparing Andy Dalton to a rookie, a career backup, and Dwayne Haskins?

 

[jazzcat22]

I never said a win wasn't a win. However a win against a good team is different from a win against a bad team. Surely you can understand that beating a team that everyone expects you to beat while good is well...just that a win against a team you were expected to beat.

so the Steelers must really suck this year then.

 

[big dog cowboy]

They played 2 bad teams

They have played bad teams before without generating turnover like this.

This feels more like luck than anything. While the defense has been playing better, it's still the 2020 defense we've come to know and hate.

 

[SumGuy]

Luck is when preparation crosses with opportunity.

Not exact quote, but something to that effect

 

[Radiashun]

could be luck, but 2 games in a row the other team fumbles easily in their end spotting us points lol?? both games it happens early in the games.
It seemed to me the fumbles were on purpose, and it is like these games are scripted, and the players just act out the script.

Then you have the jets up and beat the rams lol ?? bookies made a lot of money off that jets game, and the nfl shares profits??
Kinda fishy dont you think?
wash beats the steelers, giants beat the seahawks, all kinda fishy.

So basically if games don't go according to script, then the teams are following a script?