Jumbo075
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One of the big traps you can fall into is grading each team's draft prematurely. For example, Sports Illustrated recently updated the grade for the Cowboys 2014 draft from being the 4th worst to the 2nd best in the NFL. This shows one of the fallacies of immediate draft grades.
Another more immediate trap that premature grades fall into is that you evaluate a draft based on what a team DIDN'T do, rather than what they DID do. Particularly for invested and involved fans, the immediate frustration over the lack of progress at some key positions can emotionally poison a fair and dispassionate evaluation of the quality of the players actually selected.
Like many fans, I really believed the top Cowboys needs were LB, OG, FS, & DT. I was also very frustrated with the whole idea that the Cowboys needed to change their WR corps, and the fact the Cowboys spent so much offseason energy on the position seemed tedious and counterproductive to me. I was NOT a supporter of getting rid of Dez Bryant, and bringing in 4 new WR's. Well, the Cowboys and I agreed about the top 2 positions of need, and did excellent jobs with selecting Vander Esch and Williams in the first two rounds. But they sharply disagreed with me on the importance of the WR position, and failed to address both the FS and DT positions in the draft.
So, my immediate emotional response to the draft was to be a little pissed off. As such, if you asked my immediate grade on April 29th, it wouldn't be good. My good feeling after the 2nd round turned sour. And instead of focusing on how the players the Cowboys drafted can help the team, I was focused on my own disappointment.
The same emotional reaction goes into the media grades given out. You see it in how pundits are down-grading the Giants draft - knocking them down for failing to draft a QB, rather than dispassionately judging them on the quality of the Saquon Barkley selection. You also see it in the less than stellar grades the Browns are getting - mainly because of who they passed on, rather than how the players they actually selected will help them build a competitive team.
That is a big introduction to say this: now that the initial negative emotional reaction has worn off, I think I have a better perspective to offer an initial grade on the Cowboys draft. I should also add that given that about 75-80% of regular starters in the NFL come from the first 3 rounds of the draft, I think you have to give more weight to the overall grade of the draft to how well the team drafts in the first 3 rounds.
Also, if you add in the use of the Cowboys second 5th round pick, #173 to trade for both FB Jamize Olawale, and RB Tavon Austin, plus the trade of Switzer for Ward in the immediate aftermath of the draft, then the Cowboys really used the picks and players they had to improve the overall talent of the team.
Bottom line. Even if the team did not improve in every area (FS), they did a great job using the draft resources they had to improve the overall talent level of the team. Just looking at the players they acquired, this was an excellent, excellent draft for the Cowboys. The Cowboys better hope that the 2017 draft class of Charlton, Awuzie and Lewis, along with Vander Esch improves the defense dramatically in 2018, because outside of Vander Esch in the 1st round, this was an offensively focused draft for the Cowboys.
Another more immediate trap that premature grades fall into is that you evaluate a draft based on what a team DIDN'T do, rather than what they DID do. Particularly for invested and involved fans, the immediate frustration over the lack of progress at some key positions can emotionally poison a fair and dispassionate evaluation of the quality of the players actually selected.
Like many fans, I really believed the top Cowboys needs were LB, OG, FS, & DT. I was also very frustrated with the whole idea that the Cowboys needed to change their WR corps, and the fact the Cowboys spent so much offseason energy on the position seemed tedious and counterproductive to me. I was NOT a supporter of getting rid of Dez Bryant, and bringing in 4 new WR's. Well, the Cowboys and I agreed about the top 2 positions of need, and did excellent jobs with selecting Vander Esch and Williams in the first two rounds. But they sharply disagreed with me on the importance of the WR position, and failed to address both the FS and DT positions in the draft.
So, my immediate emotional response to the draft was to be a little pissed off. As such, if you asked my immediate grade on April 29th, it wouldn't be good. My good feeling after the 2nd round turned sour. And instead of focusing on how the players the Cowboys drafted can help the team, I was focused on my own disappointment.
The same emotional reaction goes into the media grades given out. You see it in how pundits are down-grading the Giants draft - knocking them down for failing to draft a QB, rather than dispassionately judging them on the quality of the Saquon Barkley selection. You also see it in the less than stellar grades the Browns are getting - mainly because of who they passed on, rather than how the players they actually selected will help them build a competitive team.
That is a big introduction to say this: now that the initial negative emotional reaction has worn off, I think I have a better perspective to offer an initial grade on the Cowboys draft. I should also add that given that about 75-80% of regular starters in the NFL come from the first 3 rounds of the draft, I think you have to give more weight to the overall grade of the draft to how well the team drafts in the first 3 rounds.
- MLB Leighton Vander Esch - 93% - A - Clearly one of the top 4 LB's in the draft. While I would have been preferred to select Vander Esch with a lower pick than pick #19. It is clear that other teams were willing to trade up ahead of the Cowboys if they tried to trade back. In fact, it came out after the draft that the Titans were targeting Vander Esch with the 25th pick, and when the Cowboys selected him, they traded up to #22 to take Rashaan Evans. So the Cowboys wisely took a highly talented player with a tremendous upside that addressed their top position of need.
- OG Connor Williams - 99% A+ - If Williams had the same performance in his injury filled junior season as he had in his healthy sophomore year at Texas, He likely would have been the 2nd Offensive lineman drafted after Nelson, and likely the selection of the Raiders at pick #9. The Cowboys got him at #50 in the draft. This is a fantastic pick, no matter how you look at it. And not only can Williams step in as the new starting Left Guard for the Cowboys; he has the talent to play Left Tackle if necessitated by an injury to Tyron Smith.
- WR Michael Gallup - 87% B+ - In a draft where a lot of WR talent was bundled together near the end of the 1st round to the end of the 2nd round, Gallup fell to the Cowboys at #81. While he doesn't have elite measurable physical traits, Gallup's fall to the 3rd round is simply a matter of team preferences. He was highly productive in College, and projects to be a better #2 WR than Terrance Williams, and with his savvy and intelligence, could develop into a good #1 receiver.
- DE Dorance Armstrong - 73% - C - The Cowboys are obviously very high on Armstrong, and it's wise to take a moment before automatically panning this pick. With the impending return of Gregory, the recent addition of Charlton, and players like Tapper, Ealy, T.Crawford, and D.Jones - all top 101 picks already on the team, it makes some sense to doubt the wisdom of using a 4th round pick on yet another DE. Also, Armstrong's final year in college isn't a strong case for drafting him. But I'm willing to be wrong.
- TE Dalton Schultz - 82% B- - For a running team, getting a player who can block and catch the pass is important. Schultz fits the mold of what the Cowboys want to do. I don't have high expectations for his rookie season, because he comes in needing to gain 15-25 lbs to effectively play the role the Cowboys need him to play. He needs a year to bulk up, and a couple of offseasons, but he could become the best tight end on the roster by the beginning of 2019. That's not a bad career projection for a mid-round pick. Just don't judge him too quickly for not being able to immediately replace Jason Witten.
- QB Mike White - 95% A - Among the top 5 QB's selected in the draft, only Baker Mayfield checks all of Bill Parcells' 7 criteria to judge a QB in the draft.The rest of the 1st round QB's fail to measure up. Mike White checks all the boxes, and could be a steal in the 5th round. If Dak Prescott stumbles, White could even get an opportunity to show if he's better than Prescott. Some professional draft analysts believe that White was the 6th rated QB in the draft and should have been a 2nd round pick. At the very least, the Cowboys drafted a good young backup QB to Dak, if Dak bounces back and has a great 3rd season, which we should all be hoping for.
- OLB Chris Covington - 65% D - This was a really poor class for outside LB prospects, and so if you think there were better LB's still on the board when the Cowboys selected Covington, you'd be correct. But the better LB's available were all inside LB prospects, and by this time in the draft, the Cowboys already owned the rights to 4 LB's who can man the middle: Lee, Jaylon, Thomas and Vander Esch. They needed OLB help. So they reached for the best player they had left at the OLB position. Covington will likely be a career special teams player, but the Cowboys need someone to replace Kyle Wilbur so that isn't necessarily a bad thing. Just don't expect Covington to beat out Damien Wilson, who is a part-time starting caliber LB when he plays well.
- WR Cedrick Wilson - 82% B- - Wilson has the size and speed to become a very good #2 receiver in the NFL. But he struggles against press coverage, so right now he's simply a deep threat. He doesn't have the strength of Noah Brown, or the speed of Deonte Thompson, the two players he will likely be competing with for the final spot on the roster. Nevertheless, he shows the raw ability to learn to beat press coverage, and has some good traits and production as a receiver in college. He could make the team if the Cowboys keep 6 WR's, or they could stash him for development on the Practice Squad for a year, and promote him next year when the contracts of Beasley and Thompson expire.
- RB Bo Scarbrough - 95% A - Scarbrough is a great value in the 7th round. But the red flags on his health are real, so it will bear watching if he can reach his potential. When healthy, he'll add to a talented stable of RB's on a team that wants to run the ball more than any other in the NFL behind their top offensive line.
- Grade x Weight = Pick Score
- 1st round - 93% x 40 points = 37.2
- 2nd round - 99% x 25 points = 24.8
- 3rd round - 87% x 15 points = 13.0
- 4th round - 73% x 10 points = 7.3
- 4th round - 82% x 10 points = 8.2
- 5th round - 95% x 5 points = 4.8
- 6th round - 65% x 3 points = 1.9
- 6th round - 82% x 3 points = 2.6
- 7th round - 95% x 2 points = 1.9
- Total Draft Grade 101.2 points of 113 possible points = 90.0% A-
Also, if you add in the use of the Cowboys second 5th round pick, #173 to trade for both FB Jamize Olawale, and RB Tavon Austin, plus the trade of Switzer for Ward in the immediate aftermath of the draft, then the Cowboys really used the picks and players they had to improve the overall talent of the team.
Bottom line. Even if the team did not improve in every area (FS), they did a great job using the draft resources they had to improve the overall talent level of the team. Just looking at the players they acquired, this was an excellent, excellent draft for the Cowboys. The Cowboys better hope that the 2017 draft class of Charlton, Awuzie and Lewis, along with Vander Esch improves the defense dramatically in 2018, because outside of Vander Esch in the 1st round, this was an offensively focused draft for the Cowboys.
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