um... not good news on AccuScore projection

[Phoenix]

AccuScore has the Vikings at a heavy 59% to 40% favorite over the Cowboys (currently, I think the 10,000+ simulations are still in progress).

Currently, the average score they show is:

Vikings 26.9
Cowboys 24.1

Current Top Performers listed for QB, RB, WR in the game are:

QB - Romo. 23-35, 259 yds, 1.9 TD

RB - AP. 18 carries, 70 yds, 0.7 TD

WR - Austin. 4.9 Receptions, 74 yds, also 0.7 TD


No details of their "if-then" analysis are yet available.


I'm already not liking this though...

 

[speedkilz88]

If Romo throws 35 passes against their secondary, he'll have over 400 yards.

 

[Don Corleone]

If AP is held to 70 yards rushing on 18 carries, I actually like our chances.

 

[RainMan]

Phoenix, I know you probably get this question every week -- but how accurate is that thing?

 

[RCowboyFan]

Accuscore is nice and all, but last two times you posted that, it has been wrong by wide margin. Only the victor was right, so I guess, that is kind of good prediction.

Even then, it would have been more comforting to see Accuscore predict cowboys win. But I would like to know what it predicted against Saints?

 

[Quarterback Coach]

Phoenix, I know you probably get this question every week -- but how accurate is that thing?

I wonder what that would have predicted in the Giants/Patriots Super Bowl?

 

[Phoenix]

Phoenix, I know you probably get this question every week -- but how accurate is that thing?

I've only been watching it for this season, and only pretty much for Cowboys games. But it has been pretty accurate in predicting the winner, if nothing else (stats, etc.) It's not perfect - no system can possibly be - but it has been correct in the game winner prediction more often than not. So much so that I plan to start using them next season for picking weekly NFL matchup pools

 

[AtlCB]

Phoenix, I know you probably get this question every week -- but how accurate is that thing?

Accuscore was 1-3 last week. The Dallas win was the only correct pick.

 

[Phoenix]

Accuscore is nice and all, but last two times you posted that, it has been wrong by wide margin. Only the victor was right, so I guess, that is kind of good prediction.

Even then, it would have been more comforting to see Accuscore predict cowboys win. But I would like to know what it predicted against Saints?

Well like I said, they tend to get the winner right, not necessarily the stats, and that's why their current simulations are bothering me right now.

As for the Saints, I honestly can't remember right now. I want to say they predicted the Cowboys but I can not swear to it. I have not posted their predictions every week, and once the game is over, their info is no longer available through BSPN->NFL->Scores->(Cowboys Game of the week)->Intel. I suppose they are from AccuScore website, but I refuse to subscribe to them for that if it is.

 

[Phoenix]

Accuscore was 1-3 last week. The Dallas win was the only correct pick.

Really? 1-3? Wow, I'm surprised. But I 99.9% look at their projections just for Cowboys games, and I didn't even look at the other game predictions.

Edit: I HOPE THEY ARE DEAD WRONG THIS WEEK AS WELL AND THE COWBOYS WIN 38-0.

 

[RCowboyFan]

I've only been watching it for this season, and only pretty much for Cowboys games. But it has been pretty accurate in predicting the winner, if nothing else (stats, etc.) It's not perfect - no system can possibly be - but it has been correct in the game winner prediction more often than not. So much so that I plan to start using them next season for picking weekly NFL matchup pools

I searched for Dallas vs New Orleans, and found that Saints were predicted to win 70% of time. 32.5 for NO to 24.9 for Cowboys.

http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/blogs/Accuscore_NFL_Week_15_Analysis.html

Watching that, whole accuscore thing, its as much as crapshoot as any one picking the game. Its nice and all, but useless, in seeing how the team is doing etc.

 

[trickblue]

Really? 1-3? Wow, I'm surprised. But I 99.9% look at their projections just for Cowboys games, and I didn't even look at the other game predictions.

Edit: I HOPE THEY ARE DEAD WRONG THIS WEEK AS WELL AND THE COWBOYS WIN 38-0.

I'm am by no means predicting a win, but I am me confident this week than I was last week...

 

[Phoenix]

I searched for Dallas vs New Orleans, and found that Saints were predicted to win 70% of time. 32.5 for NO to 24.9 for Cowboys.

http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/blogs/Accuscore_NFL_Week_15_Analysis.html

Watching that, whole accuscore thing, its as much as crapshoot as any one picking the game. Its nice and all, but useless, in seeing how the team is doing etc.

Nice find, thanks. Guess they got that one wrong. I wonder what the Vegas line was for that game?

Like I said, they aren't perfect. No system can possibly be.

In this case, I am taking great solace in that they predicted the Saints to win by a much larger point margin than what they predict the Vikings right now. To me, that is that much greater a margin for another erroneous outcome prediction. And that I would like VERY much.

 

[Don Corleone]

I'm am by no means predicting a win, but I am me confident this week than I was last week...

I'm a little less confident. This is a unique situation for this team...no more monkey on the back, and all demons exorcised. I am curious to see what the mental psyche will be like, especially early in the game.

In some ways, I feel that the Cowboys have an advantage. A month ago, no one saw them being in this situation and playing this well. IMO, they are playing with the house's money right now. They could just as well come in loose and relaxed, instead of tense.

 

[goliadmike]

Magic 8 ball > Accuscore

 

[Phoenix]

I'm a little less confident. This is a unique situation for this team...no more monkey on the back, and all demons exorcised. I am curious to see what the mental psyche will be like, especially early in the game.

In some ways, I feel that the Cowboys have an advantage. A month ago, no one saw them being in this situation and playing this well. IMO, they are playing with the house's money right now. They could just as well come in loose and relaxed, instead of tense.

That is a VERY good point. I hope the Cowboys still feel the urgency to win. But you are absolutely right. Even up to and including Wade - monkey off the back, pressure off to win in postseason FINALLY, etc. Will they play like last week? I sure hope so.

Those kind of intangibles cannot be accounted for in software simulations of games of course....

 

[AtlCB]

Nice find, thanks. Guess they got that one wrong. I wonder what the Vegas line was for that game?

Like I said, they aren't perfect. No system can possibly be.

In this case, I am taking great solace in that they predicted the Saints to win by a much larger point margin than what they predict the Vikings right now. To me, that is that much greater a margin for another erroneous outcome prediction. And that I would like VERY much.

The Vikings were also predicted to win 74% of the time against Carolina. The Panthers clobbered the Vikings that week.

 

[Phoenix]

Magic 8 ball > Accuscore

What does it say?

 

[goliadmike]

What does it say?

Hightech dave hasn't done his official prediction yet and I was just messing with you. Thanks for putting these up every week. It stimulates some good conversations and I enjoy the "what ifs"

 

[Phoenix]

The Vikings were also predicted to win 74% of the time against Carolina. The Panthers clobbered the Vikings that week.

Sigh. Again, intangibles at work quite a bit.

You going to keep doing this? Posting every search result for every game you find wrong that they got, and not posting what you found that they got right?

Tell you what, why don't you concentrate on the Cowboys? Go back and look for their prediction for every regular season game this year and find out what their W-L record is for their predictions were for our games? Make yourself somewhat useful . I'd be interested to know, for one. Thanks.