um... not good news on AccuScore projection

[GimmeTheBall!]

do accuscore do racetrack stuff?
um, i am axing on behalf of my uncle Johnny.

 

[Phoenix]

I don't know if they do race car stuff.

I scoured their website today for any kind of information that would detail just HOW they run their 10,000+ simulations for each NFL game. (And by the way, still no detailed information on the DAL-MIN game.)

Guess what? Nothing. They have a FAQ link that results in the infamous 404 Page Not Found error. Great. Their "About Us" link reveals nothing.

I can find out nothing. So, I wrote them an email...I basically asked (accused is more appropriate) if they were just running 10,000+ Madden simulations of games. If not, what do you guys do? How do you do it? A LITTLE detail would be really helpful here.

As of right now, due to their apparent insistence on not telling in even a general idea of just how they do their simulations, I can no longer back them. For all I know, all they are doing is running Madden games.

I apologize right now for pushing these guys. They might probably be shams. If so, so sorry. I was under the impression they were professionals. If I hear back from them any details that change my mind, I'll post an update.

In the meantime, please pay no attention to AccuScore.

As Far As I Know.

Thanks. And apologies again.



Here was my email to them:

Nowhere on your site can I find out how you do your predictions based on your simulations. You have a "FAQ" link that results in the infamous 404 - Page Not Found error. Wow. Imagine that.

Are you guys fly by night or what?

Why don't you give a LITTLE insite in to how your simulations are run? That would be more than helpful, but potentially persuasive to people like me. But I can find NO information from you on this.

What do you do? Use last season's stats? Roll the dice? What? I would LIKE to think you use absolutely current players stats, team trends and tendencies, etc., but I have no idea. What, do you just run 10,000+ Madden NFL games every week for each game? What? How?

PLEASE give me some insight here if you guys really are legitimate, because by looking the information available about you from your website, right now, I have to think that all you do is run Madden game simulations.

If that is all this is, what a joke. If it is much more, I would sure love to know about it.

Thanks.

 

[ThreeSportStar80]

Dallas wins, I don't know by how much though.

 

[Milestogo]

F Accuscore

 

[amuze]

I look at Accuscore every week (ESPN Insider) to get a statistical gauge of upcoming games, but I have found that there are just too many "real life" variables that are not taken into account.

Wouldn't put a lot of stock into it. If it was that "accurate", then Vegas would have figured out a way to shut them down already.

 

[bbgun]

Cancel the flight and hotel reservations, Jerry.

 

[T-RO]

I'm already not liking this though...

Big frikkin deal. How do the computers do at figuring out a collegiate national championship? I heard a computer system currently has the Spurs ranked seccond in the NBA and the Lakiers 6th (the Mavs were insulted even worse at 8th, behind OKC!).

Computer systems are WORTHLESS with these kind of things.

Accuscore my arse. I think you are one of their agents coming on here trying to pitch this crap.

 

[jackrussell]

In the meantime, please pay no attention to AccuScore.

Man, I've been tellin' you all along you can't beat the old stand by.

 

[Phoenix]

I think you are one of their agents coming on here trying to pitch this crap.

Really? I think you work for one of their competitors and trying to slam them.

Now be quiet please.

 

[Phoenix]

I did get this email reply from AccuScore, as a result of my email asking how they do their calculations, and accusing them of being a fly-by-night operation:



"[FONT=Calibri, Verdana, Helvetica, Arial]We use team and player past performances over the past 3-5 years. We have a unique formula for freshman and rookies. We run each game, one play at a time factoring in over 100 variables. We factor in numerous statistics, including game, season and situational. We then simulate games one play at a time under real game conditions and repeat the process 10,000 times.

Our record’s are posted in each sport’s Daily Line Report. We supply archived DLRs up to two seasons back to members who request it.

We are not fly by night and we are legit. Our partners can speak to that. Wall Street Journal, Yahoo!, ESPN, Sporting News, Versus, NY Post and more than 30 local television stations from around the country."




Take it for what it's worth. With that, here is their indepth comments on the game simulations this week:

[/FONT]While both teams feature dynamic RBs both run defenses are playing very well in simulations. Adrian Peterson only has a 39 percent of rushing for over 75 yards but if he does the the Vikings are heavy 77 percent favorites. Felix Jones and Marion Barber only have a 38 percent chance of rushing for 80+ yards, but if they do then Dallas is the 75 percent favorite. The QB match-up is extremely close as well with Tony Romo and Brett Favre projected for 250+ yards and 2 TDs. The game could come down to which defense rushes the passer more effectively. When Dallas sacks Favre 4 or more times the Cowboys improve their chances from 41 to 58 percent. When the Vikings sack Romo 4+ times Minnesota is the 76 percent favorite.

 

[Doomsday]

AccuScore has the Vikings at a heavy 59% to 40% favorite over the Cowboys (currently, I think the 10,000+ simulations are still in progress).

Currently, the average score they show is:

Vikings 26.9
Cowboys 24.1

Current Top Performers listed for QB, RB, WR in the game are:

QB - Romo. 23-35, 259 yds, 1.9 TD

RB - AP. 18 carries, 70 yds, 0.7 TD

WR - Austin. 4.9 Receptions, 74 yds, also 0.7 TD


No details of their "if-then" analysis are yet available.


I'm already not liking this though...

Accuscore was 1-3 picking games last week. It is probably better this way.

 

[goliadmike]

Man, I've been tellin' you all along you can't beat the old stand by.

We were so easily entertained as kids.

 

[trickblue]

Man, I've been tellin' you all along you can't beat the old stand by.

Genius... :laugh2:

 

[Phoenix]

Accuscore was 1-3 picking games last week. It is probably better this way.

How did Vegas do again?

As for me, I'll be paying very, very close attention to the running games of both teams based on this:

"Adrian Peterson only has a 39 percent of rushing for over 75 yards but if he does the the Vikings are heavy 77 percent favorites. Felix Jones and Marion Barber only have a 38 percent chance of rushing for 80+ yards, but if they do then Dallas is the 75 percent favorite."


In everything they said, that is the key to the game, far as I can tell.

 

[Royal Laegotti]

Why don't we just let AccuReality settle the game on Sunday and toss this computer simulation garbage, that and the magic 8 ball.

 

[Phoenix]

Why don't we just let AccuReality settle the game on Sunday and toss this computer simulation garbage, that and the magic 8 ball.

All for reality settling it. It always does, doesn't it? Despite what AccuScore, the Magic 8 Ball says? Despite what Vegas says?

Despite what you probably prefer - talking heads like Berman picking a winner/score out of the blue based on absolutely nothing? Or a beat writer, or any other paper/internet publication talking head?

Pardon, thought this was a discussion board, not a dismissal board, where possible insights into our biggest game in over a decade might warrant discussion and analysis on our parts.

Closed-mindedness. It's a truly repelling thing to see sometimes...especially in places like this is supposed to be.

Have a nice day, and please feel free to ignore threads with "AccuScore" in them. We'll both feel better, I'm sure.

 

[jobberone]

I did get this email reply from AccuScore, as a result of my email asking how they do their calculations, and accusing them of being a fly-by-night operation:



"[FONT=Calibri, Verdana, Helvetica, Arial]We use team and player past performances over the past 3-5 years. We have a unique formula for freshman and rookies. We run each game, one play at a time factoring in over 100 variables. We factor in numerous statistics, including game, season and situational. We then simulate games one play at a time under real game conditions and repeat the process 10,000 times.

Our record’s are posted in each sport’s Daily Line Report. We supply archived DLRs up to two seasons back to members who request it.

We are not fly by night and we are legit. Our partners can speak to that. Wall Street Journal, Yahoo!, ESPN, Sporting News, Versus, NY Post and more than 30 local television stations from around the country."




Take it for what it's worth. With that, here is their indepth comments on the game simulations this week:

[/FONT]While both teams feature dynamic RBs both run defenses are playing very well in simulations. Adrian Peterson only has a 39 percent of rushing for over 75 yards but if he does the the Vikings are heavy 77 percent favorites. Felix Jones and Marion Barber only have a 38 percent chance of rushing for 80+ yards, but if they do then Dallas is the 75 percent favorite. The QB match-up is extremely close as well with Tony Romo and Brett Favre projected for 250+ yards and 2 TDs. The game could come down to which defense rushes the passer more effectively. When Dallas sacks Favre 4 or more times the Cowboys improve their chances from 41 to 58 percent. When the Vikings sack Romo 4+ times Minnesota is the 76 percent favorite.

Like I've been saying......the Cowboys get pressure on Favre and we will win.

 

[Royal Laegotti]

All for reality settling it. It always does, doesn't it? Despite what AccuScore, the Magic 8 Ball says? Despite what Vegas says?

Despite what you probably prefer - talking heads like Berman picking a winner/score out of the blue based on absolutely nothing? Or a beat writer, or any other paper/internet publication talking head?

Pardon, thought this was a discussion board, not a dismissal board, where possible insights into our biggest game in over a decade might warrant discussion and analysis on our parts.

Closed-mindedness. It's a truly repelling thing to see sometimes...especially in places like this is supposed to be.

Have a nice day, and please feel free to ignore threads with "AccuScore" in them. We'll both feel better, I'm sure.

Don't be so sensitive firebird it was just a comment. But I do find it funny that you or anyone else may fret alittle over what AccuScore or the Magic 8 ball says.