Yeah I don't agree with that being the template for whether you are a contender every year. Sometimes there are 1 or 2 dominant teams in a conference that nobody else is a real contender.
Sometimes, sure. Right now (early though it is) I don't see any of those dominants right now. Maybe a couple in each conference will emerge.
I suppose arguably Arizona is the most dominant team in the NFC, but I don't think there is a mountain of difference between the Rams, Cowboys, Buccaneers* or Packers. Each team can probably beat any other team given the appropriate circumstances.
* due to injuries - a healthy Bucs team probably re-qualifies.