Universal Mock Disclaimer

[jday]

I’ve been noticing a trend. On just about every Mock thread, there is a zoner or two that likes to crash the party and suggest that the guy being drafted in a certain round will already be gone or that it is a reach. I can certainly understand the sentiment behind the contribution, but the logic behind it is severely flawed for several reasons.

1. Round projections are based on a collection of opinions from so-called draft experts, occasional former player/coach/scout, and mediots (who went to college for writing/media, not football) parroting the former two. The boards they make are in no way related to the boards teams make. Often times these projections assume that all teams will draft the best player available, when (especially in the first) teams will absolutely draft for need and convince themselves that they are also drafting the best player available that just so happens to address a need.

2. If you look at the various scout sites and count how many players get a first round grade, often times there are more players than there are picks in the first round. They can’t all be drafted in the first round so inevitably players will fall…the question is who?

3. So glad you asked, because the players that typically fall come from the deepest positions. The deepest positions in this year’s draft just happens to be corner, defensive end and safety. So, with that being said, if you have submitted a Mock that suggest that, for instance, Josh Jones may still be there at the end of the 3rd for the Cowboys to snag, despite what the so-called experts on the zone say, you may actually be right. There are several Safeties that have been graded above him. But what these so-called experts may also be overlooking is the number of corners that will be converted to Safety, that also are graded above him.

Thoughts?

 

[StarHead69]

For those on this board who question point #3, remember Michael Bennett DT Ohio St in the 2015 draft! If you weren't around, the rueing was monumental every time we passed on him from the 2nd round until he finally went in the 6th(?).

 

[Doc50]

I’ve been noticing a trend. On just about every Mock thread, there is a zoner or two that likes to crash the party and suggest that the guy being drafted in a certain round will already be gone or that it is a reach. I can certainly understand the sentiment behind the contribution, but the logic behind it is severely flawed for several reasons.

1. Round projections are based on a collection of opinions from so-called draft experts, occasional former player/coach/scout, and mediots (who went to college for writing/media, not football) parroting the former two. The boards they make are in no way related to the boards teams make. Often times these projections assume that all teams will draft the best player available, when (especially in the first) teams will absolutely draft for need and convince themselves that they are also drafting the best player available that just so happens to address a need.

2. If you look at the various scout sites and count how many players get a first round grade, often times there are more players than there are picks in the first round. They can’t all be drafted in the first round so inevitably players will fall…the question is who?

3. So glad you asked, because the players that typically fall come from the deepest positions. The deepest positions in this year’s draft just happens to be corner, defensive end and safety. So, with that being said, if you have submitted a Mock that suggest that, for instance, Josh Jones may still be there at the end of the 3rd for the Cowboys to snag, despite what the so-called experts on the zone say, you may actually be right. There are several Safeties that have been graded above him. But what these so-called experts may also be overlooking is the number of corners that will be converted to Safety, that also are graded above him.

Thoughts?

Well said.

Good scouting departments don't have many players "rising" up their draft board; they've been following candidates for years, and already have a book on them.

"Falling" is different, and may even be based on rumor and innuendo (La'el). There are no financial or manpower constraints on scouting, so finding the heart, spirit, and truth about each candidate should be just as comprehensive an effort as evaluating film.

 

[jday]

For those on this board who question point #3, remember Michael Bennett DT Ohio St in the 2015 draft! If you weren't around, the rueing was monumental every time we passed on him from the 2nd round until he finally went in the 6th(?).

Well said.

Good scouting departments don't have many players "rising" up their draft board; they've been following candidates for years, and already have a book on them.

"Falling" is different, and may even be based on rumor and innuendo (La'el). There are no financial or manpower constraints on scouting, so finding the heart, spirit, and truth about each candidate should be just as comprehensive an effort as evaluating film.

"Exactly" times 2.

 

[xwalker]

I’ve been noticing a trend. On just about every Mock thread, there is a zoner or two that likes to crash the party and suggest that the guy being drafted in a certain round will already be gone or that it is a reach. I can certainly understand the sentiment behind the contribution, but the logic behind it is severely flawed for several reasons.

1. Round projections are based on a collection of opinions from so-called draft experts, occasional former player/coach/scout, and mediots (who went to college for writing/media, not football) parroting the former two. The boards they make are in no way related to the boards teams make. Often times these projections assume that all teams will draft the best player available, when (especially in the first) teams will absolutely draft for need and convince themselves that they are also drafting the best player available that just so happens to address a need.

2. If you look at the various scout sites and count how many players get a first round grade, often times there are more players than there are picks in the first round. They can’t all be drafted in the first round so inevitably players will fall…the question is who?

3. So glad you asked, because the players that typically fall come from the deepest positions. The deepest positions in this year’s draft just happens to be corner, defensive end and safety. So, with that being said, if you have submitted a Mock that suggest that, for instance, Josh Jones may still be there at the end of the 3rd for the Cowboys to snag, despite what the so-called experts on the zone say, you may actually be right. There are several Safeties that have been graded above him. But what these so-called experts may also be overlooking is the number of corners that will be converted to Safety, that also are graded above him.

Thoughts?

I like mocks based on the CBS rankings. Manual mocks, not the simulations.

Either say that your mock will only take players available per CBS rankings or say that you'll go up some fixed number above the CBS rankings.

I could say that I'll go CBS(5) which would mean that at #28 I could draft players ranked by CBS at #23 and after.

It forces some amount of realism on the process.

Even better would be to assemble some well known rankings and average them to create a rankings board and then mock from that.

The simulations are generally silly. They give people players top 10 players at #28. Some people love them because they feel like they accomplished a great draft.

People generally want a wow mock, so often they'll make trades giving up future picks for more picks now. This can really make a mock look great if you just forget about what they gave up.

 

[jday]

I like mocks based on the CBS rankings. Manual mocks, not the simulations.

Either say that your mock will only take players available per CBS rankings or say that you'll go up some fixed number above the CBS rankings.

I could say that I'll go CBS(5) which would mean that at #28 I could draft players ranked by CBS at #23 and after.

It forces some amount of realism on the process.

Even better would be to assemble some well known rankings and average them to create a rankings board and then mock from that.

The simulations are generally silly. They give people players top 10 players at #28. Some people love them because they feel like they accomplished a great draft.

People generally want a wow mock, so often they'll make trades giving up future picks for more picks now. This can really make a mock look great if you just forget about what they gave up.

Very good info. I was curious which sites I should be looking at, because one site I was using indicated Chinobe Awuzie was graded 4th-6th. I got killed for that.

That said, I stand by my OP. Even CBS will be surprised this year at some point.

 

[xwalker]

Very good info. I was curious which sites I should be looking at, because one site I was using indicated Chinobe Awuzie was graded 4th-6th. I got killed for that.

That said, I stand by my OP. Even CBS will be surprised this year at some point.

Unfortunately, nobody spends much time going back to review rankings from the past to see how accurate or inaccurate they were.

 

[KingintheNorth]

and we took Ryan Russell 17 picks before Bennett. Bennett is still on Jacksonville' roster.

Ruing internet fans 1, Cowboys 0.

 

[AsthmaField]

Very good info. I was curious which sites I should be looking at, because one site I was using indicated Chinobe Awuzie was graded 4th-6th. I got killed for that.

That said, I stand by my OP. Even CBS will be surprised this year at some point.

Awuzie probably will go pretty early. I wouldn't be upset if Dallas takes him at 28. He's a good player.

That is the problem with all the fan/media ranking, mocks, etc. People get so worked up about it.

Taking Awuzie as an example, you said he's one of your favorite mid-round picks (in your other thread), because of some apparently mis informed site that said he was a mid round pick. There are plenty of people who have him as a borderline first- early second round pick which is, IMO, about where he will go.

If Dallas drafts him at 28, all the people who feel like he is a mid-round pick will be like: "What the hell are the Cowboys thinking? They could have gotten him in the 3rd!" (or even 4th in extreme cases).

They will hate the pick. Not because they watched a lot of film on him and formed an opinion... but because of their perception of him as a 3rd-4th round player from a random website (which again, is way off).

Truth is, he is plenty good to go in round one but if you think he is a 4th round player then you couldn't have watched a lot of him because he is damn good.

If people would say, "I must have missed on Awuzie because maybe the best drafting NFL team just took him round 1"... I'd have no issues with it. However, what happens is that they call Dallas idiots for overdrafting a CB and will likely hate the guy for the rest of his career.

Anyway, I'll get off my soap box. But Awuzie is going to go pretty early and he's going to be a damn good player. Better IMO than a lot of guys with bigger names.

 

[jday]

Unfortunately, nobody spends much time going back to review rankings from the past to see how accurate or inaccurate they were.

True dat!

 

[jday]

Awuzie probably will go pretty early. I wouldn't be upset if Dallas takes him at 28. He's a good player.

That is the problem with all the fan/media ranking, mocks, etc. People get so worked up about it.

Taking Awuzie as an example, you said he's one of your favorite mid-round picks (in your other thread), because of some apparently mis informed site that said he was a mid round pick. There are plenty of people who have him as a borderline first- early second round pick which is, IMO, about where he will go.

If Dallas drafts him at 28, all the people who feel like he is a mid-round pick will be like: "What the hell are the Cowboys thinking? They could have gotten him in the 3rd!" (or even 4th in extreme cases).

They will hate the pick. Not because they watched a lot of film on him and formed an opinion... but because of their perception of him as a 3rd-4th round player from a random website (which again, is way off).

Truth is, he is plenty good to go in round one but if you think he is a 4th round player then you couldn't have watched a lot of him because he is damn good.

If people would say, "I must have missed on Awuzie because maybe the best drafting NFL team just took him round 1"... I'd have no issues with it. However, what happens is that they call Dallas idiots for overdrafting a CB and will likely hate the guy for the rest of his career.

Anyway, I'll get off my soap box. But Awuzie is going to go pretty early and he's going to be a damn good player. Better IMO than a lot of guys with bigger names.

Shortly after getting killed, I went and looked for myself. He's being touted by some as a top 50 player. So...Back to the drawing (draft) board.

 

[AsthmaField]

Shortly after getting killed, I went and looked for myself. He's being touted by some as a top 50 player. So...Back to the drawing (draft) board.

Haha, not trying to pile on bro... but a pet peeve is people flipping out because they thought player X was a third round pick and Dallas takes them in the first or second.

They're like "Walter football had him going in the third! Terrible pick!!"

Uggg.

You know you're my boy though J!

 

[AzorAhai]

and we took Ryan Russell 17 picks before Bennett. Bennett is still on Jacksonville' roster.

Ruing internet fans 1, Cowboys 0.

Grady Jarret is the one I really rued over,and I wasn't alone by a long shot, with a similar disparity. He turned into a pretty good player so add him to the list.
Rueing internet fans 2, Cowboys 0.

 

[jday]

Haha, not trying to pile on bro... but a pet peeve is people flipping out because they thought player X was a third round pick and Dallas takes them in the first or second.

They're like "Walter football had him going in the third! Terrible pick!!"

Uggg.

You know you're my boy though J!

Haha, not trying to pile on bro... but a pet peeve is people flipping out because they thought player X was a third round pick and Dallas takes them in the first or second.

They're like "Walter football had him going in the third! Terrible pick!!"

Uggg.

You know you're my boy though J!

I'm fairly certain the last time I complained about a pick was Dez Bryant...I say the jury is still out on that one..

 

[AsthmaField]

I'm fairly certain the last time I complained about a pick was Dez Bryant...I say the jury is still out on that one..

I wasn't talking about you bro... just fans in general.

 

[jday]

I wasn't talking about you bro... just fans in general.

I hear ya. I usually ignore those types of rant threads. It is futile to debate it before they've even put on pads. If the drafts from Tyron Smith to present hadn't happened, I might feel differently. But since Smith, drafting has for the most part been on point...so the Cowboys FO has earned the benefit of the doubt.

 

[Tristan]

I agree w the basic premis that none of us really know for sure and shouldnt act like we do.

That said when you get this close the consensus becomes reasonably accurate and some are just not up to date on guys like Awuzie/Bowser etc

So some of these guys are putting 3 guys that are most certainly top 40 picks as theyre dream mock drafts ie 1-Barnett 2- Awuzie 3- juju smith schuster etc.

while thats all slightly possible, the more likely senario is that only a couple guys really suprisingly drop and half the fan mocks are unrealistically pushing players they want down a bit. Its all for fun anyway and should be.

So nobody should be insulted for sharing their opinion whether having fun with a pipe dream mock or sharing an equally valid opinion that feels a player wont be available as someone suggested without being called a "so called expert" either.

 

[Maxmadden]

I’ve been noticing a trend. On just about every Mock thread, there is a zoner or two that likes to crash the party and suggest that the guy being drafted in a certain round will already be gone or that it is a reach. I can certainly understand the sentiment behind the contribution, but the logic behind it is severely flawed for several reasons.

1. Round projections are based on a collection of opinions from so-called draft experts, occasional former player/coach/scout, and mediots (who went to college for writing/media, not football) parroting the former two. The boards they make are in no way related to the boards teams make. Often times these projections assume that all teams will draft the best player available, when (especially in the first) teams will absolutely draft for need and convince themselves that they are also drafting the best player available that just so happens to address a need.

2. If you look at the various scout sites and count how many players get a first round grade, often times there are more players than there are picks in the first round. They can’t all be drafted in the first round so inevitably players will fall…the question is who?

3. So glad you asked, because the players that typically fall come from the deepest positions. The deepest positions in this year’s draft just happens to be corner, defensive end and safety. So, with that being said, if you have submitted a Mock that suggest that, for instance, Josh Jones may still be there at the end of the 3rd for the Cowboys to snag, despite what the so-called experts on the zone say, you may actually be right. There are several Safeties that have been graded above him. But what these so-called experts may also be overlooking is the number of corners that will be converted to Safety, that also are graded above him.

Thoughts?

Mock Knockers

They can't help themselves

 

[DFWJC]

I like mocks based on the CBS rankings. Manual mocks, not the simulations.

Either say that your mock will only take players available per CBS rankings or say that you'll go up some fixed number above the CBS rankings.

I could say that I'll go CBS(5) which would mean that at #28 I could draft players ranked by CBS at #23 and after.

It forces some amount of realism on the process.

Even better would be to assemble some well known rankings and average them to create a rankings board and then mock from that.

The simulations are generally silly. They give people players top 10 players at #28. Some people love them because they feel like they accomplished a great draft.

People generally want a wow mock, so often they'll make trades giving up future picks for more picks now. This can really make a mock look great if you just forget about what they gave up.

This