Upcoming Free Agents and Chances of staying

[Sandyf]

1. Randy Gregory DE UFA - he will be resigned, in fact he stated that he owes the Boys for sticking with him and will be a Cowboy for life. Probably not cheap but Stephen will work the contract so it works for all.

2. Jayron Kearse DB UFA - believe he will be a 50-50 shot coming back depending on cost, Boys want him but price will have to be right.

3. Malik Hooker S UFA - good chance he is back, has had good season but his market plus previous injury history will keep his price down. Most likely a contract with incentives he could reach.

4. Damontae Kazee S UFA - has played well in spurts but could see him back on vet minimum contract if no other takers

5 Connor Williams OG UFA - he is a lot of fans whipping boy and we do need an upgrade, he will get a contract that will net Dallas a 3rd or 4th round pick in 2023. He is a goner from Dallas.

6. Dalton Schultz TE UFA - his is an interesting case, nice target, plays well, good connection with Dak but price may be to high to keep plus McKeon has been good and Jarwin will be back, think he is gone

7. Michael Gallup WR UFA - price probably much to high to keep and as much as I would like him back just do not see it happening although should net us a 3rd or 4th in 2023 draft.

8. Carlos Watkins DT UFA - probably back on a vet minimum contract unless another team ante is much highter.

9. Brent Urban DT UFA - same as Watkins plus the fact that Hill, Gallimore, Osa and Bohanna are all back

10. Cedrick Wilson WR UFA - could be back only at the right price but going to be a 50-50 at best

11. Noah Brown WR UFA - like the kid but he's gone

12. Malik Turner WR UFA - he's gone especially with likes of Fehoko and Vasher back

13. Bryan Anger P UFA - it will be another one year deal for him

14. Ty Nsehke OT UFA - he will not be back

15. Dorance Armstrong DE UFA - interesting case to be back but Golston more of the future and some team will offer Armstong more than he is worth

16. Jeremy Sprinkle TE UFA - if he is back it will be late after the draft to fill out roster

17. Maurice Canady CB UFA - really doubt he is back at all

18. Corey Clements RB UFA - another guy that if available after the draft could be pickup

19. Leighton Vander Esch LB UFA - hard to believe he is back but currently playing well could net us a late draft pick in 2023 if another team signs him for decent money

20. Mitch Hyatt OT UFA - time to move on for him, bet is he is gone

21. Keanu Neal LB UFA - could see another one year deal for him especially if Quinn still here

22. Francis Bernard LB ERFA - will get a tender from the Boys

23. Luke Gifford LB RFA - will get a minimum tender from the Boys

24. Jack McQuade LS UFA - will get a one year deal again

So out of 22 actual UFA free agents, I believe 7 or 8 will be back with a chance at 10 depending on the cost. I know many will say we can't due to the salary cap but we all should know that contracts will be re-done to give additional cap dollars and there could be others that are cut so that money is available for the draft picks, resigning our own free agents and most likely 3 or 4 new free agents ( none in the 1st couple of weeks of free agency though).

What we do need though whether in free agency or the draft is
1. Left Tackle unless Josh Ball is going to be a consideration
2. Left Guard - not sold on McGovern so could be interesting
3. 3rd WR - can Vasher or Fehoko take Gallup spot, don't think so
4. Safety - need a long term answer
5. CB - not sure any of the rookies ready to step up next to Diggs but hopeful on Joseph
6. LB - Cox back is going to help and Neal if he resigns but hit on another good one would be great
7. TE - would be nice to find hidden gem like Kittle or Kelse in the draft

 

[LACowboysFan1]

What we do need though whether in free agency or the draft is
1. Left Tackle unless Josh Ball is going to be a consideration
2. Left Guard - not sold on McGovern so could be interesting
3. 3rd WR - can Vasher or Fehoko take Gallup spot, don't think so
4. Safety - need a long term answer
5. CB - not sure any of the rookies ready to step up next to Diggs but hopeful on Joseph
6. LB - Cox back is going to help and Neal if he resigns but hit on another good one would be great
7. TE - would be nice to find hidden gem like Kittle or Kelse in the draft

Nice list, but to me some of those aren't "needs", more like "would be nice to haves"

Diggs is a bonafide top corner already, and what team has two top corners? Few, and to get two you'll have to spend a ton to get another one. LB is good, I do think Cox will be very good, and despite some people's reservations, I think LVE is very good as well. And of course Parsons is All World at this point. Again, few teams have several top LBs, Dallas is at least very good in that area.
Sign Wilson and Gallup and WR is very good with Lamb and Cooper, and again having at least 2 great receivers is more than most teams have. Don't overspend in one area.

But agreed, "needs" are LT and OG and S. Cowboys are in danger of those areas falling to mediocre status, never know how long Smith can be available, Martin isn't a youngster anymore, and both McGovern & Williams aren't where they need to be, both have been here long enough to get to that level but they haven't, and I don't see they ever will. Though certainly they might, I'm no expert...

 

[Dalmations202]

<snip>

What we do need though whether in free agency or the draft is
1. Left Tackle unless Josh Ball is going to be a consideration
2. Left Guard - not sold on McGovern so could be interesting
3. 3rd WR - can Vasher or Fehoko take Gallup spot, don't think so
4. Safety - need a long term answer
5. CB - not sure any of the rookies ready to step up next to Diggs but hopeful on Joseph
6. LB - Cox back is going to help and Neal if he resigns but hit on another good one would be great
7. TE - would be nice to find hidden gem like Kittle or Kelse in the draft

I disagree on the needs here.
1. Ball, LC moving to the left side, Hyatt turning the corner. Since I think Smith will be back next year -- If one falls yes, but not a need, a want.
2. LG -- Bigger need that OT to me. McGovern can't block in space, and CWill can't handle strength individually. Both are avg, LC moving back here might be a better move with Steele moving to starting RT. Or is LC done with his hips.
3. 3rd WR -- definite need, but need a speed guy or a quickness guy.
4. Safety -- as long as you resign Kearse, and still keep DWilson you are fine at SS....not so sure about FS though
5. CB -- Diggs, Joseph, Brown, Lewis all still under contract next year. Wright, Mukuamu still here. No huge need, unless one just falls.
6. LB -- Huge need for the guy who can play the second LB. Cox yes. Would draft one high if I could find one.
7. TE -- Find one that is a threat. One that can block inline, and in space. Also one that can challenge LB's and get down the seam. Would draft one HIGH.
8. DT: Not listed. But a legit one tech that moves Gallimore back to 3T would let this defense move to the next level provided he can take on double teams, and push the pocket on passing downs.

So for me:
Top 3 rounds are LB, TE, and DT -- order depends on BPA that falls to you.
With the DT dropping out of the top if a OG, 3WR, or FS falls in your lap.
OT, OG for development - sure.

 

[darthseinfeld]

1. Randy Gregory DE UFA - he will be resigned, in fact he stated that he owes the Boys for sticking with him and will be a Cowboy for life. Probably not cheap but Stephen will work the contract so it works for all.

2. Jayron Kearse DB UFA - believe he will be a 50-50 shot coming back depending on cost, Boys want him but price will have to be right.

3. Malik Hooker S UFA - good chance he is back, has had good season but his market plus previous injury history will keep his price down. Most likely a contract with incentives he could reach.

4. Damontae Kazee S UFA - has played well in spurts but could see him back on vet minimum contract if no other takers

5 Connor Williams OG UFA - he is a lot of fans whipping boy and we do need an upgrade, he will get a contract that will net Dallas a 3rd or 4th round pick in 2023. He is a goner from Dallas.

6. Dalton Schultz TE UFA - his is an interesting case, nice target, plays well, good connection with Dak but price may be to high to keep plus McKeon has been good and Jarwin will be back, think he is gone

7. Michael Gallup WR UFA - price probably much to high to keep and as much as I would like him back just do not see it happening although should net us a 3rd or 4th in 2023 draft.

8. Carlos Watkins DT UFA - probably back on a vet minimum contract unless another team ante is much highter.

9. Brent Urban DT UFA - same as Watkins plus the fact that Hill, Gallimore, Osa and Bohanna are all back

10. Cedrick Wilson WR UFA - could be back only at the right price but going to be a 50-50 at best

11. Noah Brown WR UFA - like the kid but he's gone

12. Malik Turner WR UFA - he's gone especially with likes of Fehoko and Vasher back

13. Bryan Anger P UFA - it will be another one year deal for him

14. Ty Nsehke OT UFA - he will not be back

15. Dorance Armstrong DE UFA - interesting case to be back but Golston more of the future and some team will offer Armstong more than he is worth

16. Jeremy Sprinkle TE UFA - if he is back it will be late after the draft to fill out roster

17. Maurice Canady CB UFA - really doubt he is back at all

18. Corey Clements RB UFA - another guy that if available after the draft could be pickup

19. Leighton Vander Esch LB UFA - hard to believe he is back but currently playing well could net us a late draft pick in 2023 if another team signs him for decent money

20. Mitch Hyatt OT UFA - time to move on for him, bet is he is gone

21. Keanu Neal LB UFA - could see another one year deal for him especially if Quinn still here

22. Francis Bernard LB ERFA - will get a tender from the Boys

23. Luke Gifford LB RFA - will get a minimum tender from the Boys

24. Jack McQuade LS UFA - will get a one year deal again

So out of 22 actual UFA free agents, I believe 7 or 8 will be back with a chance at 10 depending on the cost. I know many will say we can't due to the salary cap but we all should know that contracts will be re-done to give additional cap dollars and there could be others that are cut so that money is available for the draft picks, resigning our own free agents and most likely 3 or 4 new free agents ( none in the 1st couple of weeks of free agency though).

What we do need though whether in free agency or the draft is
1. Left Tackle unless Josh Ball is going to be a consideration
2. Left Guard - not sold on McGovern so could be interesting
3. 3rd WR - can Vasher or Fehoko take Gallup spot, don't think so
4. Safety - need a long term answer
5. CB - not sure any of the rookies ready to step up next to Diggs but hopeful on Joseph
6. LB - Cox back is going to help and Neal if he resigns but hit on another good one would be great
7. TE - would be nice to find hidden gem like Kittle or Kelse in the draft

Some good takes here. Thank you for the effort

Some thoughts:

I think its in Wilsons best interest to take a 1 year with us and look for long term in 2023. I don't think the long term money will be there for him in 2022. If he catches 50 passes in 2022 as our season long #3, he will get a solid multi year.

Conversely I think its in Gallups best interest to take a 1 year deal somewhere else. He is a legit #2, and deserving of a contract around 15 AAV, but two years removed from his 1,000 season he might not get that right now. If he can put up 70 for 1,000 next year, he'll get that.

Hooker is a good one year deal candidate. Like the two mentioned, his market could be alot better in 2023 if he both starts and stays healthy. I think he will be back because the team will likely feel comfortable enough in his play to pencil him in as they're 2022 FS, and thats Hookers ticket to a solid deal in 2023

I think they will let Neal walk and basically replace him with Kearse. Kearse is definitely a candidate to walk, but I think they will make a real effort to keep him. He is better hybrid SS/LB than Neal is right now, and has they long arms they love.

Armstrong has played very well, but I dont know if he has the raw production to attract the attention from other teams to get a good offer. I think he is a very good #3 DE and that has value. Lost in Michah's breakout as a pass rusher with Gregory and Lawrence out was the fact that Armstrong got consistent pressure as well. I think Golston could replace him, however they also arent all that similar either. Armstrong is a 7T, whereas Golston is mainly a LDE that can also play inside. I think Golston will probably soak up some of Urbans snaps

 

[DUO_CORE]

On defense, I'd really focus on the front 7. Many of us have been saying for years that the pass rush makes a mediocre secondary look decent, and I see that happening this season. Scared QB's make mistakes and bad decisions.

On offense I'd like to see OL help and a bowling ball type of RB the likes of Jerome Betis or Brandon Jacobs.

 

[Rayman70]

We need Clements and Kearse back FIRST and foremost. They offer great versatility and quality in areas of great need. Where would we be without them? Did anyone here EVER think Kearse will be a main cog for this team? I will be the first 2 say, I didnt think he would survive the cuts in camp. Boy was I wrong. Clements is another dude I didnt see coming. I'm thinking he's a fringe guy at this point but he has won me over with his versatility on special teams. He brings high energy and depth. These 2 dudes are must signs.Kearse has mega upside. He is young and has a great attitude. He plays the game the right way. Will McClay may have had the best draft and free agency period of any front office guy in the league. Huge Kudos to him and the Jones boys. They deserve high praise. Gregory might be had with the exclusive franchise tag. I think we might lose him. I think we end up tagging him but another team will deal us picks and players to get him. We really love Armstrong. I think we will sign him. Hé's another guy that has shocked me. He's been very good and has improved. Kazee is a goner. He really hasnt done that much. Hooker will stay, as will both Wilsons. Gallup is long gone.Turner will stay. We will sign him in a bit of a surprise. He has earned it.

 

[Rayman70]

the massive improvement defensively in 1-2 off seasons may have been only done 1 time. I think it was the 84-85 Bears. I think the draft we had in 2021 rivals them. We have Osa, Gholston, Parsons, Big Bo, Kelvin J. Really, the last 2 drafts we have had have been stellar. We made the best move of all this offseason...we signed Dan Quinn. He fit these dudes together like a jigsaw puzzle and made it work. They all bought in. This is exciting guys.

 

[LACowboysFan1]

the massive improvement defensively in 1-2 off seasons may have been only done 1 time. I think it was the 84-85 Bears. I think the draft we had in 2021 rivals them. We have Osa, Gholston, Parsons, Big Bo, Kelvin J. Really, the last 2 drafts we have had have been stellar. We made the best move of all this offseason...we signed Dan Quinn. He fit these dudes together like a jigsaw puzzle and made it work. They all bought in. This is exciting guys.

If you and others find it exciting, good for you.

But 25 years of disappointment has beaten all of any chance of excitement out of me. They could rehire Jimmy, resurrect Landry and Stautner, resign Roger and Emmitt and Dorsett and Randy White and Chuck Howley and Lilly & restore them to their glory years' health, and resurrect and resign Harvey Martin, and I'd not be excited.

Nothing will excite me about the Cowboys short of a SB win. Not that I expect to NOT win the SB, but for me it's nothing but waiting and watching...

 

[Award2184]

It seems like it's going to be tight to keep our top FAs, let alone sign other guys, without making some moves that fans are not going to like: i.e. cutting a big-name player, trading a big-name player or two, and/or restructuring some contracts for more cap room that we'd like to leave alone so we're not tied to them:

Top re-sign priorities and estimated "per year" contract amount (my opinion)
- Randy: 12.5 per year (this is per PFF)
- Kearse: 7.5 per year (he's ranked as a top safety and while PFF does not have a forecasted contract amount for him, this is the amount they list for Quandre Diggs - seemed like an ok comparison)
- Cedric Wilson: 4-6 (pure guess) per year. Looked over what other receivers made last year. Let's call it 5 for the sake of argument. If I'm way off fee free to correct me.
- Kazee or Hooker: Not sure exactly what to put here, but I would think that we would want to retain one. If we do then it would for a presumed starter role. Either one would be due for some sort of a raise here, so I'll guess: 2.5 per year

As a guess, re-signing Randy (starting DE), Kearse (starting SS/nickel - dime LB), Wilson (3rd receiver stepping in for Gallup?), and our starting FS in Hooker/Kazee would account for somewhere in the area of 27.5 million in cap room.

The team can work their magic with voided years and what not to bring that number down a bit, but I don't know enough about NFL contracts to comment.

Current Salary Cap Status: Other cap numbers to know: Per "Over the Cap" Dallas is about 12 million over to start with, so that 27.5 would become 39.5 million of cap room needed if we want to realistically sign the players listed above.

Draft: I think the general rule of thumb is to set aside about $10 million to pay players that you draft for a given year, so add that to the current number we need to reach and the new goal is $49.5 million in cap room needed before contract manipulation (backloading, voided years, etc0>

How can we create cap room (again - taken from Over the Cap website which is pretty cool)
- There are a number of ways to do it, but it involves sacrificing cap flexibility down the line and/or creating more holes by cutting starters with bigger contracts.

Restructuring:
-Dak's contract makes a ton of sense. He's going to be with us for the length of his contract (knock wood) and turning some of his salary into signing bonus makes sense for all involved. Dallas does this every year. Per OTC that would create: 15 million
-Tank and Amare both being restructured would, I believe, create about 24 million, but I believe the team avoided touching their contracts last year to give them flexibility on roster moves for these guys moving forward. These are the two biggest non-Dak contracts that would give you cap room, but don't see these guys as restructures and def. don't see them as cap cuts.
-Zeke: You want to leave his deal alone - already widely considered to be an overpay at an undervalued position - so they can get out of that, if they want to, asap. Not much help coming here for cap room. No one is going to trade for him. He's still an important part of the team.
-Ty Smith/Martin/Collins - Martin I think you could get away with restructuring, but I believe that only creates about 7 million. I don't see how you kick the can down the road with these guys, especially Smith, due to injury history, but they're still ranked by PFF as two of the best tackles in the league. They're on good deals for how valued their position is, so I don't know how you cut either of them either.

Hypothetically - let's say the they restructure Martin and trade/cut Collins.

Point being - Not seeing an easy way to create much more than 30 or so million before cutting a bunch of small contracts which creates more holes. This is with a minimal understanding of the cap and contracts, so thought it would be interesting to throw it out there for the forum and see where I'm wrong.

 

[Ranched]

Gregory, Gallup, Schultz & Cedrick Wilson?!
Free Agency is going to hurt.