I know this draft shouldn't be graded until 3 years down the line.
I see many including talking heads for the Cowboys now changing their tunes regarding how good this draft is.
Unfortunately the longer I sit and read I actually think this draft is WORSE than I thought.
1. Unless Parson becomes a KJ Wright or HOF player then it's really a wasted pick when we have a log jam at the LB position after FA. Even with conversion to 3-4 we still have too many LBs. Could have pick one later. Cox may end up being the better pick just because he will see a lot of snaps as dime or nickel LB.
We can't cut LB Smith or LVE due to salary reasons and trade value for LVE is probably a conditional 4-5th rounder due to medical issues.
2. Slater should have been the pick at 12. Did we forget both of our T were out last year? When was the last time Tyron Smith played an entire season? Oh, NFL just added another game to the season as well. Slater would be playing G at Connors place and then kick out to T if there's an injury or ultimately take Tyron's place. Much more likely to be a sure fire 10 year quality starter if not more.
2. Quinn system. Ok, we just devoted an entire draft class to "his" system. I understand let the cook pick the groceries. But Quinn may only be here for a year. He wants to be a head coach. What do we do with some of these picks which take time to develop when he leaves? ....... Once we got CB in the 2nd round *** are we reaching for Wright in the 3rd as if we don't have other positions to fill....like OL? When is Wright going to see the field when we have CB Brown and Lewis?
This draft is moving us more to a 3-4 which is fine. Whatever works. FO better be sticking to this philosophy or else we just wasted more resources for a 1 year experiment.
3. Failure to address the OL. Ok we did with a 4th and 7th rounder. Yes, one was potentially a 2nd round talent except.... This draft was loaded with OT talent AND we have a need. Was it so hard to use one of our 3rd rounders on one once we passed on Slater in 1st.
4. Log jam at DT. Competition is good. But sound like we may being giving up on Hill pretty soon (3rd rounder) with the FA signings and draft.
Enough of my rant...got it out of my system.
I pray I am totally wrong and the Cowboys hit on all 11 picks!
It's not really just Quinn's system. Will McClay has favored these types of players over Marinelli's preferred types of players since McClay got the top talent evaluation job.
- McClay likes long arm players and big CBs. Marinelli only cared about DL 1st step quickness and didn't seem to have an opinion on DBs.
- McClay has been pushing for the Seattle style defense since back when they ended up hiring Kiffin/Marinelli.
- Jerry made statements to the media back then about how they wanted to play the Seahawks style of defense and that Kiffin/Marinelli had ties to those coaches.
After the 2nd round, draft picks are primarily drafted for their potential contributions in year 2 and later.
- When teams compare 3rd round players, they're not focused on which one will contribute more as a rookie.
Even with 1st and 2nd round picks, NFL teams put more emphasis on the player's career projection than their rookie season expectations.
Most teams use a statistical probability approach.
- The probably of any 1 specific player being a huge contributor as a rookie is limited based on draft history.
- On the flip side, there is a very high probability that some picks in a team's draft class will have significant contributions as rookies.
- Obviously the probability is higher with early picks but the probability for any 1 specific player is still far lower than the probably of rookie contributions from the draft class.
- The issue is that the group probability does not really indicate which players will be the better rookie contributors. There are too many variables such as existing roster competition.
- Historically many players that were good rookie contributors get surpassed in following years by players that didn't contribute as much or at all as rookies.
In this draft class a guy like OT Josh Ball might end up being a better player than multiple players drafted ahead of him, but he won't play as a rookie unless they have 4 or 5 injuries at OT.
