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If you’ve ever donated to PETA or the National Wildlife Organization, look away. Just look at the flowers, Lizzie. There’s a dead horse here in front of me, and ****** we’re going to beat it into submission. That horse gon’ learn today.
Before we head-first dive back into the shallow TJ Watt – Taco Charlton wading pool though, let me first put it out there I’m happy the defensive end recently revealed he had another offseason surgery. The Dallas Cowboys 2017 first-round pick was an abject disappointment in 2018. He ended his rookie season with hope, with a strong number of quarterback pressures indicating he may be ready to transition from a rookie year’s sluggish start.
Not quite what happened. Nothing like what happened. After finishing 2017 with a 10.6 pass-rush-productivity score in his last 100 rushes, Charlton looked like he could earn himself more snaps with the opportunities that were opening, but those were eaten up by a returning-from-suspension Randy Gregory. That’s who the spotlight shined on. Gregory was the one to play opposite DeMarcus Lawrence and collect six sacks over the year. Charlton was the one drawing the ire of the coaching staff and leading to, at the very least, a lack of communication on what the issues were.
Charlton caught side eyes and criticism for his demeanor and had it reported everywhere (including here) to be Mr. Healthy Scratch, coach’s decision. However here we are in May and Charlton has had not one, but two offseason surgeries to clean up issues he suffered during the season. First, a repair of a torn labrum in January. Now we’ve learned he had a scope on a troublesome ankle.
So my working, offseason optimistic viewpoint is, as follows.
Good.
It’s good Charlton really had some physical ailments bad enough to require surgery. That gives an excuse for his lack of development, and gives hope that just because the team has prepared to chalk him up as a bonus instead of a bell cow, he may not be all-the-way lost.
A few weeks ago, Dallas activated the fifth-year option for 2016 first-round pick Ezekiel Elliott. The Cowboys have done so with every first rounder, save for Morris Claiborne, since the new CBA. Next May, Charlton will be eligible for one, as all first rounders are prior to their NFL senior years.
If the player has declared themselves in a major way, they get the option put on them. A player has to be a complete question mark — talent, or injury — for a team not to lock them in for the option. It isn’t guaranteed for skill, only injury, giving the team an easy out if the fourth year doesn’t show improvement.
It feels like Charlton most likely won’t have his option invoked unless he shows a lot of improvement in 2019.
The team traded for Robert Quinn to start at right defensive end and everyone on the outside of the team seems to think Gregory is taking snaps this year despite currently being indefinitely suspended. Again.
With the drafting of a couple 2019 edge rushers, after grabbing Dorance Armstrong in 2018, there’s plenty of competition for Charlton just to see the field in limited duty. For two seasons we’ve recommended playing Charlton at under tackle, but the club has steadfastly refused to do so, leading us to believe he hasn’t shown them any ability there. Now that they drafted Trysten Hill, that dream is all but dead.
So, and here’s where that 400-pound man goes belly-flopping, big-boy equestrian… the option will be handled slightly differently in Pittsburgh. The Steelers, I’m wagering, have every intention of placing the option on should’ve-been-Cowboy pass rusher T.J. Watt.
Watt was famously leaked through the team’s normal test-the-fanbase channels to be the apple of the club’s eye in the 2017 draft. A coach’s decision of the most frustrating kind changed well-laid plans and made things happen how they happened,
So what would be different if the Cowboys had selected Watt in the first place? Let’s jump into the hot tub time machine and run through it as best we can.
Direct swap out Charlton’s 16 games for Watt’s 15.
Michael Conroy, Associated Press
That’s a tough order because Watt earned 752 defensive snaps to Charlton’s 401, just shy of twice as many. The Cowboys however employed the services of Benson Mayowa in 2017, for 383 snaps. Those would’ve easily made up the difference and allowed Watt to get his Steelers workload as a Cowboy.
That would jump the team sack total up four, from 38 to 42 (Watt had , moving them up to a tie for 7th from a tie for 15th in the league. What would have happened if the Cowboys had those four sacks? Who knows, record-wise, but they’d rather have had them and the havoc they could’ve caused than not have them.
OK, that’s hardly a convincing narrative. Don’t give up on us yet.
Impact on 2018 Draft
Dorance Armstrong (AP Photo/Roger Steinman)
So, Dallas got seven sacks out of a rookie. They likely aren’t drafting Armstrong in the fourth round in 2018. They could have gone several directions with No. 116.
The most likely pick may have been West Virginia safety Kyzir White. He was one of their pre-draft visitors and went three spots after Armstrong did. RB Ito Smith was also a pre-draft visitor that went after Armstrong’s pick.
There’s also the possibility the club would’ve drafted TE Dalton Schultz, who they took with No. 137, opening up their other fourth round pick to go in a different direction.
White is the most intriguing, as he fits the physical profile for secondary players under Kris Richard, but he’s not very athletic. In fact, the Chargers had him playing linebacker positions because, well, they also had Derwin freaking James. Still though, that feels like a suitable substitution for the Armstrong acquisition.
Impact on 2018
Let’s suspend the replacement player talk and refocus a bit.
Watt had a tremendous Year 2, making the Pro Bowl after tallying 13 sacks in 2018. It’s not apples to apples, but imagine that kind of rush from opposite Lawrence, especially in light of getting pretty much nothing out of Charlton in 2018.
Watt played 903 snaps, compared to 401 for Charlton, so he’d have to syphon away 502 snaps from other defensive ends in order to make the comparisons equivalent. Armstrong had 273 himself and he’s theoretically off the roster so there’s another 229 to account for.
Of Tyrone Crawford’s 730 defensive line snaps (according to PFF), 230 of them came from right defensive end. Unfortunately we do know how many of Crawford’s career high 5.5 sacks were from end and how many from the interior, but PFF credits him with 3 from the right side, so we’ll guesstimate and say that’s the total he’d lose.
Dallas would add 9 sacks to their total of 39 in 2018, moving them into sole possession of seventh, making them a top-10 sack defense for the second consecutive year.
9 sacks is enough to consider it making an impact on their season, too.
And it could have been more. The money down pass-rush now features Watt and Gregory on the edges, and Tank Lawrence moving inside, unless his shoulder requires him to stay on the outside. Neither Watt nor Gregory are big enough to move inside, so now the question becomes is some of that potential wasted because Dallas couldn’t get all three on the field together?
We don’t know what kind of player Kyzir White would’ve been, either, as he suffered an early 2018 injury with the Chargers and only played three games. If he was a full 16-game player and eventually replaced Jeff Heath in the lineup? Things are interesting.
Interesting enough they would have earned three more regular season victories from that? Probably not. Would they have had a better defensive showing against the Rams in the divisional round, when they were run over and through?
Impact on 2019 offseason
(AP Photo/Morry Gash)
Let’s say the Cowboys were still eliminated by Los Angeles. Here’s how their 2019 offseason would still have differed.
In short, it doesn’t appear the last two seasons would have ended drastically different for Dallas than they already did. Of course, this is just one man’s opinion, albeit one that originally hasn’t been able to let go of the bad decision of not picking Watt. But this does once again prove how much football is about more than just one player.
Would the Cowboys short-term be any different isn’t the only question. What about the long game? They certainly would be better off having three years of Watt opposite Lawrence than a rental year of Quinn. Charlton however has one last javelin to toss at the dragon though, in his 2019 season.
And his trek to do so can be filled with as much outrage over his continued association with the team up until the fifth-year option decision must be made by the second Tuesday after the 2020 draft. Maybe the hindsight will be kind at that point.
Take that, you horse-faced horse.
Gallery
Cowboys 2019 Offseason Player Power Rankings
Continue reading...
Before we head-first dive back into the shallow TJ Watt – Taco Charlton wading pool though, let me first put it out there I’m happy the defensive end recently revealed he had another offseason surgery. The Dallas Cowboys 2017 first-round pick was an abject disappointment in 2018. He ended his rookie season with hope, with a strong number of quarterback pressures indicating he may be ready to transition from a rookie year’s sluggish start.
Not quite what happened. Nothing like what happened. After finishing 2017 with a 10.6 pass-rush-productivity score in his last 100 rushes, Charlton looked like he could earn himself more snaps with the opportunities that were opening, but those were eaten up by a returning-from-suspension Randy Gregory. That’s who the spotlight shined on. Gregory was the one to play opposite DeMarcus Lawrence and collect six sacks over the year. Charlton was the one drawing the ire of the coaching staff and leading to, at the very least, a lack of communication on what the issues were.
Charlton caught side eyes and criticism for his demeanor and had it reported everywhere (including here) to be Mr. Healthy Scratch, coach’s decision. However here we are in May and Charlton has had not one, but two offseason surgeries to clean up issues he suffered during the season. First, a repair of a torn labrum in January. Now we’ve learned he had a scope on a troublesome ankle.
So my working, offseason optimistic viewpoint is, as follows.
Good.
It’s good Charlton really had some physical ailments bad enough to require surgery. That gives an excuse for his lack of development, and gives hope that just because the team has prepared to chalk him up as a bonus instead of a bell cow, he may not be all-the-way lost.
A few weeks ago, Dallas activated the fifth-year option for 2016 first-round pick Ezekiel Elliott. The Cowboys have done so with every first rounder, save for Morris Claiborne, since the new CBA. Next May, Charlton will be eligible for one, as all first rounders are prior to their NFL senior years.
If the player has declared themselves in a major way, they get the option put on them. A player has to be a complete question mark — talent, or injury — for a team not to lock them in for the option. It isn’t guaranteed for skill, only injury, giving the team an easy out if the fourth year doesn’t show improvement.
It feels like Charlton most likely won’t have his option invoked unless he shows a lot of improvement in 2019.
The team traded for Robert Quinn to start at right defensive end and everyone on the outside of the team seems to think Gregory is taking snaps this year despite currently being indefinitely suspended. Again.
With the drafting of a couple 2019 edge rushers, after grabbing Dorance Armstrong in 2018, there’s plenty of competition for Charlton just to see the field in limited duty. For two seasons we’ve recommended playing Charlton at under tackle, but the club has steadfastly refused to do so, leading us to believe he hasn’t shown them any ability there. Now that they drafted Trysten Hill, that dream is all but dead.
So, and here’s where that 400-pound man goes belly-flopping, big-boy equestrian… the option will be handled slightly differently in Pittsburgh. The Steelers, I’m wagering, have every intention of placing the option on should’ve-been-Cowboy pass rusher T.J. Watt.
Watt was famously leaked through the team’s normal test-the-fanbase channels to be the apple of the club’s eye in the 2017 draft. A coach’s decision of the most frustrating kind changed well-laid plans and made things happen how they happened,
So what would be different if the Cowboys had selected Watt in the first place? Let’s jump into the hot tub time machine and run through it as best we can.
Direct swap out Charlton’s 16 games for Watt’s 15.
Michael Conroy, Associated Press
That’s a tough order because Watt earned 752 defensive snaps to Charlton’s 401, just shy of twice as many. The Cowboys however employed the services of Benson Mayowa in 2017, for 383 snaps. Those would’ve easily made up the difference and allowed Watt to get his Steelers workload as a Cowboy.
That would jump the team sack total up four, from 38 to 42 (Watt had , moving them up to a tie for 7th from a tie for 15th in the league. What would have happened if the Cowboys had those four sacks? Who knows, record-wise, but they’d rather have had them and the havoc they could’ve caused than not have them.
OK, that’s hardly a convincing narrative. Don’t give up on us yet.
Impact on 2018 Draft
Dorance Armstrong (AP Photo/Roger Steinman)
So, Dallas got seven sacks out of a rookie. They likely aren’t drafting Armstrong in the fourth round in 2018. They could have gone several directions with No. 116.
The most likely pick may have been West Virginia safety Kyzir White. He was one of their pre-draft visitors and went three spots after Armstrong did. RB Ito Smith was also a pre-draft visitor that went after Armstrong’s pick.
There’s also the possibility the club would’ve drafted TE Dalton Schultz, who they took with No. 137, opening up their other fourth round pick to go in a different direction.
White is the most intriguing, as he fits the physical profile for secondary players under Kris Richard, but he’s not very athletic. In fact, the Chargers had him playing linebacker positions because, well, they also had Derwin freaking James. Still though, that feels like a suitable substitution for the Armstrong acquisition.
Impact on 2018
Let’s suspend the replacement player talk and refocus a bit.
Watt had a tremendous Year 2, making the Pro Bowl after tallying 13 sacks in 2018. It’s not apples to apples, but imagine that kind of rush from opposite Lawrence, especially in light of getting pretty much nothing out of Charlton in 2018.
Watt played 903 snaps, compared to 401 for Charlton, so he’d have to syphon away 502 snaps from other defensive ends in order to make the comparisons equivalent. Armstrong had 273 himself and he’s theoretically off the roster so there’s another 229 to account for.
Of Tyrone Crawford’s 730 defensive line snaps (according to PFF), 230 of them came from right defensive end. Unfortunately we do know how many of Crawford’s career high 5.5 sacks were from end and how many from the interior, but PFF credits him with 3 from the right side, so we’ll guesstimate and say that’s the total he’d lose.
Dallas would add 9 sacks to their total of 39 in 2018, moving them into sole possession of seventh, making them a top-10 sack defense for the second consecutive year.
9 sacks is enough to consider it making an impact on their season, too.
And it could have been more. The money down pass-rush now features Watt and Gregory on the edges, and Tank Lawrence moving inside, unless his shoulder requires him to stay on the outside. Neither Watt nor Gregory are big enough to move inside, so now the question becomes is some of that potential wasted because Dallas couldn’t get all three on the field together?
We don’t know what kind of player Kyzir White would’ve been, either, as he suffered an early 2018 injury with the Chargers and only played three games. If he was a full 16-game player and eventually replaced Jeff Heath in the lineup? Things are interesting.
Interesting enough they would have earned three more regular season victories from that? Probably not. Would they have had a better defensive showing against the Rams in the divisional round, when they were run over and through?
Impact on 2019 offseason
(AP Photo/Morry Gash)
Let’s say the Cowboys were still eliminated by Los Angeles. Here’s how their 2019 offseason would still have differed.
- Crawford would only have 2.5 sacks in 2018. His $7 million savings is certainly something they would consider walking away from that offseason, especially after acquiring Trysten Hill in the draft.
- Maybe, the club goes in a different direction with their pick. If Crawford is full-time 3T, then maybe they draft another spot here, and end up selecting Juan Thornhill.
- Would the club have traded for Robert Quinn in March? For what purpose, to back up Watt? For $8 million? Dallas would likely still make a move to augment Gregory’s suspension, but it would likely have been less expensive.
- With the extra $10 million-plus of salary cap space saved in these two moves, combined with what they currently have, does this change Dallas’ position on grabbing a superstar in free agency, like an Earl Thomas (they had a 2-for-1 special on dead horses, ok?), or do they stick to their no new friends edict?
- Less consequentially, do Joe Jackson, Donovan Wilson and or Jalen Jelks still get drafted on Day 3 of the 2019 draft?
In short, it doesn’t appear the last two seasons would have ended drastically different for Dallas than they already did. Of course, this is just one man’s opinion, albeit one that originally hasn’t been able to let go of the bad decision of not picking Watt. But this does once again prove how much football is about more than just one player.
Would the Cowboys short-term be any different isn’t the only question. What about the long game? They certainly would be better off having three years of Watt opposite Lawrence than a rental year of Quinn. Charlton however has one last javelin to toss at the dragon though, in his 2019 season.
And his trek to do so can be filled with as much outrage over his continued association with the team up until the fifth-year option decision must be made by the second Tuesday after the 2020 draft. Maybe the hindsight will be kind at that point.
Take that, you horse-faced horse.
Gallery
Cowboys 2019 Offseason Player Power Rankings
Continue reading...