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Cowboys wideout Amari Cooper set the football world ablaze this week when he told Pro Football Talk’s Mike Florio that his goal for the upcoming season was 2,000 yards. Florio- along with every talking head in sports- immediately jumped up and down to loudly remind Cooper that no receiver in the history of the league has ever eclipsed the 2K mark in a single season.
Is it possible? Technically, yes. Is it likely? Obviously not. Is it as off-the-wall crazy as some are making it out to be? Actually… no.
The major factor that would prohibit Cooper from even sniffing such a milestone? According to most, it’s Cooper’s own teammate. NFL Network’s Willie McGinest called it “Wishful thinking.” As he told his NFL Total Access viewers, “If you look at what Dallas does on offense, I don’t really see that happening because they have a guy in the backfield, by the name of Ezekiel Elliott, who they like to hand the ball off to.”
The naysayers’ entire premise hinges on the notion that there is a finite amount of yardage to go around: force the ball through the air to Cooper, and Zeke simply can’t get fed. But would a record-torching campaign by Cooper really eat into Elliott’s productivity? Does history show that if your wide receiver puts up dazzling numbers, it automatically means you’re not running the ball well?
Digging into the NFL record books turns up some interesting stats that say Cooper and Elliott could both have a monster season in 2019 without one’s success negating the other’s.
The single-season record for receiving yardage was set by Detroit’s Calvin Johnson, who racked up 1,964 yards in 2012. Megatron averaged 122.8 that season, and it still wasn’t enough to pass 2K. Quick math says that Cooper would have to maintain 125 yards per game across the entire season to hit 2,000. That would be otherworldly in and of itself, especially since Cooper has never topped 1,200 yards in a season and is currently sitting at 64.1 per game for his career .
His average as a Cowboy, though, is 80.6. Yes, it’s just nine games. And that number is skewed by two games in particular. Cooper notched 180 yards in Week 12 against Washington and then 217 in Week 14 against Philadelphia. And those stat lines definitely helped buoy 4 other weeks when Cooper tallied less than 40 yards. But Cooper and Dak Prescott did seem to find an immediate connection of sorts; Cooper’s arrival in Dallas opened up a passing attack and offered a deep-ball threat that simply hadn’t been there before. Toss in an entire offseason to work together, a quarterback who’s shown noticeable improvement to those in the room, a new offensive coordinator, and a bit of extra motivation as he potentially enters a final contract year… and it’s not a stretch to say Cooper’s 2019 numbers could be better than 2018’s. Maybe quite a bit better.
But what about that idea that a lofty receiving-yards total automatically brings down the ground game by default?
Twenty-one receivers have compiled better than 1,600 yards in a season. (Let’s call those the only guys who were realistically thinking about 2,000 at some point along the way.) Want to guess how many of those 21 also had a 1,000-yard rusher as a teammate that same year? Would six be a surprise? If your top receiver manages to crack 1,600 yards, you still have a better than 25% chance of having a rusher break 1,000. Most fans would take those numbers in a heartbeat. It’s an elite kind of year for a receiver; still a benchmark kind of season for a running back.
But Elliott wouldn’t be content with 1,000 and everyone knows it. So let’s set the bar higher. Show me the 1,600-yard receivers who had a teammate lead the league in rushing that same year. Answer: FOUR. Four of the splashiest seasons ever by a wide receiver also came with a teammate winning the league rushing title. That’s a mind-blowing twofer.
In fact, it’s actually happened to the Cowboys before. In 1995, Michael Irvin posted 1,603 receiving yards. That same year, Emmitt Smith raced for 1,773 on the ground and was crowned rushing champ (en route to a Super Bowl win over Pittsburgh).
But it also happened in Indianapolis in 1999 with Marvin Harrison and Edgerrin James. And it happened twice in the AFL: in 1961 with the Houston Oilers’ Charley Hennigan and Billy Cannon, and in 1965 with the San Diego Chargers’ Lance Alworth and Paul Lowe. Each time, a 1,600-yard wideout and a league rushing champ in the same huddle.
So it’s not as out of the question as some might have originally called it. Cooper having an all-time-great sort of season in no way precludes Elliot from completely dominating out of the backfield. But Cooper still needs to hit that 125 average across all 16 games. Can he do it against the opponents Dallas will face?
It’s a rudimentary way to gauge 2019 talent levels, but looking at 2018 rankings for pass defenses can at least hint at who’s going to make it tough for Cooper to meet his weekly quota. (Personnel changes can obviously make a secondary better or worse than the prior year, but we’re already trying to get a wide receiver to 2,000 yards. This is all a hypothetical exercise for entertainment purposes only. Roll with it.)
Over the course of the Cowboys’ first 8 games of 2019, Cooper would seem to have a decent chance of padding his numbers somewhat. Six of those weeks, he’ll line up against a pass defense that ranked between 21st and 30th in 2018 in receiving yards allowed. And through the first half of the season, he’ll face no pass defense that was better last year than 12th (Green Bay, Week 5).
During the back half of the season, though, the sledding could get tougher for Cooper. Six of the eight pass defenses on the slate were in the top 15 in 2018. Four were in the top 10, including last year’s No. 3 (Minnesota, Week 10) and last year’s top-ranked unit (Buffalo, Thanksgiving Day). Tougher matchups, overall… plus the added incentive for defenses to contain Cooper should he be on pace for anything even remotely close to 2,000. If the single-season receiving record is within sight for Cooper, especially after he called his shot in June, teams will be gunning hard to shut him down.
Maybe 2,000 receiving yards in a season is, indeed, crazy talk. But if anyone can suggest it with a straight face, it’s the “gifted” guy who likes solving Rubik’s Cubes and recently did a locker-room interview while playing chess (and winning) against a defensive back.
Cooper’s quarterback, for what it’s worth, seemed to take the 2K talk in stride.
#Dak responds to WR Amari Cooper saying he wants 2,000 receiving yards in 2019. pic.twitter.com/Z6N3wscCpo
— Mark Lane (@therealmarklane) June 25, 2019
Prescott, the guy who would be throwing the ball for all those yards, almost sounds as if he’s taking on Cooper’s aspirations as a possible goal of his own.
“I love that confidence, honestly. Just that right there,” Prescott said, per PFT’s Charean Williams. “For a guy that came in, people say he didn’t talk much or whatever happened on the last team he was [on]. For him to be as confident as he is, to be playing and practicing the way he’s been doing… Our chemistry has grown so much in just the one offseason we’ve had. I’m excited for this year. I don’t think his goals or the things that he said are too far-fetched or out of reach.”
You can follow Todd on Twitter @ToddBrock24f7.
Continue reading...
Is it possible? Technically, yes. Is it likely? Obviously not. Is it as off-the-wall crazy as some are making it out to be? Actually… no.
The major factor that would prohibit Cooper from even sniffing such a milestone? According to most, it’s Cooper’s own teammate. NFL Network’s Willie McGinest called it “Wishful thinking.” As he told his NFL Total Access viewers, “If you look at what Dallas does on offense, I don’t really see that happening because they have a guy in the backfield, by the name of Ezekiel Elliott, who they like to hand the ball off to.”
The naysayers’ entire premise hinges on the notion that there is a finite amount of yardage to go around: force the ball through the air to Cooper, and Zeke simply can’t get fed. But would a record-torching campaign by Cooper really eat into Elliott’s productivity? Does history show that if your wide receiver puts up dazzling numbers, it automatically means you’re not running the ball well?
Digging into the NFL record books turns up some interesting stats that say Cooper and Elliott could both have a monster season in 2019 without one’s success negating the other’s.
The single-season record for receiving yardage was set by Detroit’s Calvin Johnson, who racked up 1,964 yards in 2012. Megatron averaged 122.8 that season, and it still wasn’t enough to pass 2K. Quick math says that Cooper would have to maintain 125 yards per game across the entire season to hit 2,000. That would be otherworldly in and of itself, especially since Cooper has never topped 1,200 yards in a season and is currently sitting at 64.1 per game for his career .
His average as a Cowboy, though, is 80.6. Yes, it’s just nine games. And that number is skewed by two games in particular. Cooper notched 180 yards in Week 12 against Washington and then 217 in Week 14 against Philadelphia. And those stat lines definitely helped buoy 4 other weeks when Cooper tallied less than 40 yards. But Cooper and Dak Prescott did seem to find an immediate connection of sorts; Cooper’s arrival in Dallas opened up a passing attack and offered a deep-ball threat that simply hadn’t been there before. Toss in an entire offseason to work together, a quarterback who’s shown noticeable improvement to those in the room, a new offensive coordinator, and a bit of extra motivation as he potentially enters a final contract year… and it’s not a stretch to say Cooper’s 2019 numbers could be better than 2018’s. Maybe quite a bit better.
But what about that idea that a lofty receiving-yards total automatically brings down the ground game by default?
Twenty-one receivers have compiled better than 1,600 yards in a season. (Let’s call those the only guys who were realistically thinking about 2,000 at some point along the way.) Want to guess how many of those 21 also had a 1,000-yard rusher as a teammate that same year? Would six be a surprise? If your top receiver manages to crack 1,600 yards, you still have a better than 25% chance of having a rusher break 1,000. Most fans would take those numbers in a heartbeat. It’s an elite kind of year for a receiver; still a benchmark kind of season for a running back.
But Elliott wouldn’t be content with 1,000 and everyone knows it. So let’s set the bar higher. Show me the 1,600-yard receivers who had a teammate lead the league in rushing that same year. Answer: FOUR. Four of the splashiest seasons ever by a wide receiver also came with a teammate winning the league rushing title. That’s a mind-blowing twofer.
In fact, it’s actually happened to the Cowboys before. In 1995, Michael Irvin posted 1,603 receiving yards. That same year, Emmitt Smith raced for 1,773 on the ground and was crowned rushing champ (en route to a Super Bowl win over Pittsburgh).
But it also happened in Indianapolis in 1999 with Marvin Harrison and Edgerrin James. And it happened twice in the AFL: in 1961 with the Houston Oilers’ Charley Hennigan and Billy Cannon, and in 1965 with the San Diego Chargers’ Lance Alworth and Paul Lowe. Each time, a 1,600-yard wideout and a league rushing champ in the same huddle.
So it’s not as out of the question as some might have originally called it. Cooper having an all-time-great sort of season in no way precludes Elliot from completely dominating out of the backfield. But Cooper still needs to hit that 125 average across all 16 games. Can he do it against the opponents Dallas will face?
It’s a rudimentary way to gauge 2019 talent levels, but looking at 2018 rankings for pass defenses can at least hint at who’s going to make it tough for Cooper to meet his weekly quota. (Personnel changes can obviously make a secondary better or worse than the prior year, but we’re already trying to get a wide receiver to 2,000 yards. This is all a hypothetical exercise for entertainment purposes only. Roll with it.)
Over the course of the Cowboys’ first 8 games of 2019, Cooper would seem to have a decent chance of padding his numbers somewhat. Six of those weeks, he’ll line up against a pass defense that ranked between 21st and 30th in 2018 in receiving yards allowed. And through the first half of the season, he’ll face no pass defense that was better last year than 12th (Green Bay, Week 5).
During the back half of the season, though, the sledding could get tougher for Cooper. Six of the eight pass defenses on the slate were in the top 15 in 2018. Four were in the top 10, including last year’s No. 3 (Minnesota, Week 10) and last year’s top-ranked unit (Buffalo, Thanksgiving Day). Tougher matchups, overall… plus the added incentive for defenses to contain Cooper should he be on pace for anything even remotely close to 2,000. If the single-season receiving record is within sight for Cooper, especially after he called his shot in June, teams will be gunning hard to shut him down.
Maybe 2,000 receiving yards in a season is, indeed, crazy talk. But if anyone can suggest it with a straight face, it’s the “gifted” guy who likes solving Rubik’s Cubes and recently did a locker-room interview while playing chess (and winning) against a defensive back.
Cooper’s quarterback, for what it’s worth, seemed to take the 2K talk in stride.
#Dak responds to WR Amari Cooper saying he wants 2,000 receiving yards in 2019. pic.twitter.com/Z6N3wscCpo
— Mark Lane (@therealmarklane) June 25, 2019
Prescott, the guy who would be throwing the ball for all those yards, almost sounds as if he’s taking on Cooper’s aspirations as a possible goal of his own.
“I love that confidence, honestly. Just that right there,” Prescott said, per PFT’s Charean Williams. “For a guy that came in, people say he didn’t talk much or whatever happened on the last team he was [on]. For him to be as confident as he is, to be playing and practicing the way he’s been doing… Our chemistry has grown so much in just the one offseason we’ve had. I’m excited for this year. I don’t think his goals or the things that he said are too far-fetched or out of reach.”
You can follow Todd on Twitter @ToddBrock24f7.
Continue reading...