Vegas doesn't want the Niners winning

[Diehardblues]

The line opened up at -4 1/2. Went down to -3 1/2. Now it went back up to 4. That would indicate the sportsbooks are close to even. They're going to win either way. No liability in this game.

However, there could be a ton of people that bet the 49ers to win the SB. It won't matter to Vegas because they are going to make up for it with everyone else betting someone else. But they'd probably rather a team unlikely to win the super bowl win it. This is true every year. It's just a matter of how much they win.

I do recall back in super bowl 28 it being a problem. So many people bet the Bills plus the 13 points that had Dallas not covered, they stood to lose big. But I can't confirm this. It could have just been a case of not winning that much instead of losing.

Yep

It’s very likely with proximity to Nevada that there was heavy wagering on SF to win SB. At least more than most teams . Enough for them to root against them advancing.

But you’re right , they’ll make money anyway but would prefer not paying out on SF.

 

[Diehardblues]

For 10 years, between '86 and '96 I worked closely with a book. Things may have changed. But when you go from a 3 1/2 line to a 4 point line, it's because people are betting a certain way. I'll admit I can't account for the retardation of today's youth.

Correct. The line moves based on heavy wagering on one side or the other . The early or initial movement usually represents the big money wagered. Big players often bet as soon as line comes out pending if they like the line for the side they are betting .

Traditionally if one casino receives too much wagering on one side instead of risking losing they will lay off at another casino or casinos which can also move the line . And you’ll often see different lines at different casinos . These factors can dictate .

 

[JBS]

One day you rookies will learn..amateur money doesn’t move lines..professional money moves lines..it’s not how much money- it’s whose money

 

[Diehardblues]

According to VSIN, over 70% of the money this week is currently on the Cowboys.

I’d imagine so . Cowboys are usually the most heavily wagered team. I think the bigger factor for Vegas is the future bets on winning SB which was probably heavier on SF throughout the year.

 

[calico]

I’ll take it.

 

[Flamma]

Correct. The line moves based on heavy wagering on one side or the other . The early or initial movement usually represents the big money wagered. Big players often bet as soon as line comes out pending if they like the line for the side they are betting .

Traditionally if one casino receives too much wagering on one side instead of risking losing they will lay off at another casino or casinos which can also move the line . And you’ll often see different lines at different casinos . These factors can dictate .

Right. If Dallas are -4 1/2, and the line goes down to -3 1/2, that means people are betting Dallas. This isn't debatable. If it goes back up to 4, people are betting the 49ers. How much money is unknown to us, so we can only assume. But I think the Dunning-Kruger effect can apply with certain people. People that rely on someone else for their knowledge.

 

[jwitten82]

One day you rookies will learn..amateur money doesn’t move lines..professional money moves lines..it’s not how much money- it’s whose money

I don't know a damn thing about betting, so what's this tweet mean playboi?

 

[CanadianCowboysFan]

So much for conspiracies vs Dallas

now when we win it will be fixed...

 

[SlammedZero]

Vegas is making their pick with the "entertainment business".

 

[JBS]

I don't know a damn thing about betting, so what's this tweet mean playboi?

It means for this weeks game, according to this Sportsbook, betonline - the most bet team this week for number of tickets, as well as dollars wagered, is the SF 49ers.

 

[IceBowler]

So much for conspiracies vs Dallas

.. game hasn’t been played yet.

 

[ShortRound]

Didn't want to start a new thread, this is all fascinating.
The official for our game favors the underdogs, I believe they meant Tyler Smith though, not Tyron. in the last bullet

Bill Vinovich​

• Underdogs are 11-5 ATS in Vinovich games this season, making him the most profitable ref for underdogs this year. Since 2018, dogs are 50-32-1 ATS (61%) in his games.
• In the last decade, road teams are 83-64-3 ATS (56.5%) in Vinovich games.
• Vinovich hasn’t been a good sign for the 49ers. They’ve lost three in a row SU and four of their last five, including the 2020 Super Bowl vs. Tampa Bay.
• In the last decade, Vinovich games are 89-62-1 (58.9%) to the under, making a $100 bettor $2,159 (14.2% ROI). The under is 62-37 (62.6%) since 2017 (21.1% ROI).
• Vinovich has called the fewest total penalties this season (134; 8.38 per game).
• Vinovich has only thrown 175 flags, also the fewest of any official.
• The most penalized player in terms of flags in the NFL? Tyron Smith with 14 flags on the OL of the Cowboys (tied with Eagles OL Landon Dickerson).

 

[kskboys]

For 10 years, between '86 and '96 I worked closely with a book. Things may have changed. But when you go from a 3 1/2 line to a 4 point line, it's because people are betting a certain way. I'll admit I can't account for the retardation of today's youth.

Funny how so many people don't seem to comprehend how Vegas works.

 

[Cowboys0988]

How good would a Cowboys vs Bills part IV be... Cowboys / Bengals would be dope too.. Old school teams. If Vegas wants the 9ers to lose it will happen this week or next. Sports Entertainment?

 

[Playmaker3128]

Same thing I think they said giants eagles. Most of the money is on NY.

 

[guag]

How good would a Cowboys vs Bills part IV be...

Who knows? But I bet part III would be good too!

 

[guag]

Same thing I think they said giants eagles. Most of the money is on NY.

Giants the last few decades seem to rip through the playoffs as underdogs/wild card teams. So I'm not surprised.

 

[GrouchySmurf]

I don't know a damn thing about betting, so what's this tweet mean playboi?

Why did I read that in Birdman's voice?

 

[jwitten82]

Why did I read that in Birdman's voice?

Brrrrrrr