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Who Goes Up, Who Goes Down? NFC Edition
By Rafael Vela
I want to revisit my worst to first profiles, because I saw my first football annual on the newsstand today and one common irritant of these books if their tendency to use last year’s playoff field as templates for this year’s playoffs. As I’ve pointed out, the NFL churns in a dramatic and consistent basis these days and at least one and perhaps two awful 2006 teams will be in this coming January’s playoff field.
Let’s look at draft day 2006. The New Orleans Saints had the second overall pick. The New York Jets picked fourth. Nobody outside their inner circle of fans predicted any earth shattering seasons for either. Both had new coaches. When I watched the Saints play the Cowboys in a preseason game, I was sure New Orleans was headed for another top-five pick.
Five months later, the Jets were playing New England in the wild card round and the Saints were one good half of football away from the Super Bowl.
Which brings me to this year’s draft top 10, with NFC teams in bold:
1. Oakland
2. Detroit
3. Cleveland
4. Tampa Bay
5. Arizona
6. Washington
7. Minnesota
8. Atlanta
9. Miami
10. Houston
At least one, and perhaps two of these teams are going to be sitting pretty at playoff time. Which one or ones?
One constant I see in all amazing turnarounds is superior QB play. That’s why I can see four of these teams pulling it off — the worst four.
Pardon me as I try to rationalize the irrational in each of their cases.
– Detroit: Mike Martz enters two. He’s got a solid QB in Jon Kitna. He found his new Ricky Proehl in Mike Furrey. He found his king-sized Isaac Bruce in Roy Williams. Now, he may have his supersized Tory Holt in Calvin Johnson.
He doesn’t have the second Marshall Faulk and Detroit doesn’t have a great defense, but when did Martz ever have one backing up his Rams offenses?
– Tampa Bay: They’ve been on a roller coaster, winning 12, 7, 5, 11 and 4 games the past five seasons. Is it time for another up year? Their defense got old together in ‘05 and the offense fell apart after Chris Simms ruptured his spleen. Jeff Garcia has signed on and may help turn around the offense but can the defense be rebuilt in one offseason?
– Arizona: Weak line play has doomed this franchise for years. Enter new HC Ken Whisenhunt and line coach Russ Grimm. Expect an immediate improvement in their running game. Matt Leinart had a respectable rookie season. Levi Brown may add some grit to Arizona’s line, but to my eyes they need more than one quality lineman to turn things around. Still, they have quality receivers and some quality defenders and axing Dennis Green may be addition by subtraction.
– Washington: it’s all or nothing for the Commanders. Last year, they got nothing, after an ‘05 that saw them charge into the playoffs and give the conference champ Seahawks a tough game in Seattle.
Critics have been trying to bury Mark Brunell for years now, but he turned in a respectable ‘06. Gregg Williams can get more out of less and he has a rebuilt secondary, so Washington’s defense should be better.
It’s just a hunch, but I think Detroit makes the big jump, though I would hardly be surprised if any of the others improved their fortunes.
http://theboysblog.com/
By Rafael Vela
I want to revisit my worst to first profiles, because I saw my first football annual on the newsstand today and one common irritant of these books if their tendency to use last year’s playoff field as templates for this year’s playoffs. As I’ve pointed out, the NFL churns in a dramatic and consistent basis these days and at least one and perhaps two awful 2006 teams will be in this coming January’s playoff field.
Let’s look at draft day 2006. The New Orleans Saints had the second overall pick. The New York Jets picked fourth. Nobody outside their inner circle of fans predicted any earth shattering seasons for either. Both had new coaches. When I watched the Saints play the Cowboys in a preseason game, I was sure New Orleans was headed for another top-five pick.
Five months later, the Jets were playing New England in the wild card round and the Saints were one good half of football away from the Super Bowl.
Which brings me to this year’s draft top 10, with NFC teams in bold:
1. Oakland
2. Detroit
3. Cleveland
4. Tampa Bay
5. Arizona
6. Washington
7. Minnesota
8. Atlanta
9. Miami
10. Houston
At least one, and perhaps two of these teams are going to be sitting pretty at playoff time. Which one or ones?
One constant I see in all amazing turnarounds is superior QB play. That’s why I can see four of these teams pulling it off — the worst four.
Pardon me as I try to rationalize the irrational in each of their cases.
– Detroit: Mike Martz enters two. He’s got a solid QB in Jon Kitna. He found his new Ricky Proehl in Mike Furrey. He found his king-sized Isaac Bruce in Roy Williams. Now, he may have his supersized Tory Holt in Calvin Johnson.
He doesn’t have the second Marshall Faulk and Detroit doesn’t have a great defense, but when did Martz ever have one backing up his Rams offenses?
– Tampa Bay: They’ve been on a roller coaster, winning 12, 7, 5, 11 and 4 games the past five seasons. Is it time for another up year? Their defense got old together in ‘05 and the offense fell apart after Chris Simms ruptured his spleen. Jeff Garcia has signed on and may help turn around the offense but can the defense be rebuilt in one offseason?
– Arizona: Weak line play has doomed this franchise for years. Enter new HC Ken Whisenhunt and line coach Russ Grimm. Expect an immediate improvement in their running game. Matt Leinart had a respectable rookie season. Levi Brown may add some grit to Arizona’s line, but to my eyes they need more than one quality lineman to turn things around. Still, they have quality receivers and some quality defenders and axing Dennis Green may be addition by subtraction.
– Washington: it’s all or nothing for the Commanders. Last year, they got nothing, after an ‘05 that saw them charge into the playoffs and give the conference champ Seahawks a tough game in Seattle.
Critics have been trying to bury Mark Brunell for years now, but he turned in a respectable ‘06. Gregg Williams can get more out of less and he has a rebuilt secondary, so Washington’s defense should be better.
It’s just a hunch, but I think Detroit makes the big jump, though I would hardly be surprised if any of the others improved their fortunes.
http://theboysblog.com/
